NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4

[wbrocks67]

Much like the Gina Ortiz Jones and TX-SEN race in 2018, NYT/Siena remains incapable of properly polling TX.

If anyone honestly thinks Hegar is down 10 either, come on.

Funny how Nate does not reference how badly NYT/Siena did in TX in 2018 when they had Beto winning Hispanics by 19, only for him to go and win them by 29.

[wbrocks67]

Horrific poll for Republicans!

https://twitter.com/senhorraposa/status/1320773648794398727?s=21

Yeah, if there is a 13% shift in this electorate, there's no way the overall state is only moving 5.

[wbrocks67]

Also, yes, Biden definitely winning 18-29 year olds by only *HALF* the margin that Beto won by in 2018.

It's starting to become clearer than NYT/Siena is just really terrible in some states.

Let's go to Will Hurd for his 15 pt win in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Because NYT/Siena has a horrible track record in TX. They had Cruz +8 and Hurd +15 in 2018, both way, way off. They seem to have a horrific time polling Latinos in TX specifically.

[wbrocks67]

Cohn should be given the benefit of the doubt here. He did miss in Texas in 2018, but given how intelligent and transparent NYT/Siena has been previously about methodology, I'd have to think they would've tried to resolve their SW polling issue.

Either way, it seems ridiculous to constantly criticize an A+ pollster because you don't like their results. And then turn around and use a 25 LV subsample of Collin County to disprove the rest of their poll.

Nate's rather defensive though. He should be owning the 2018 mistakes but also saying this could be a mistake too. Instead hes pointing to NV and AZ polls that are "good for Biden, so we're probably not wrong!!!"