NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4

[MillennialModerate]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Really high undecideds and known issues with polling Hispanics.

So two polls come out within hours showing the same result and one is an A+ pollster...

Yeah I’m sorry. Trump is winning Texas and so is Hegar.

The 334 map is best possible result. Period

[Skye]

I read online they don’t poll in Spanish? Can anyone confirm? If true that could be the ballgame.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320781117969080322

[BudgieForce]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Really high undecideds and known issues with polling Hispanics.

So two polls come out within hours showing the same result and one is an A+ pollster...

Yeah I’m sorry. Trump is winning Texas and so is Hegar.

The 334 map is best possible result. Period

We got two Texas polls showing Biden up and two showing Trump up.

[Gass3268]

I read online they don’t poll in Spanish? Can anyone confirm? If true that could be the ballgame.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320781117969080322

Good to know, thanks. Saw that they were off on Beto’s Hispanic % by 10 points.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I had forgotten how bad their polling in Hurd's race was. They're still a very good pollster generally, but not unreasonable to maybe treat them more like a B pollster for Texas rather than an A+ pollster

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That said, I don't believe in analyzing crosstabs or unskewing. People just have to understand that Dems consistently outperform their polls in the SW, we just are only used to it in NV because that is the state polled repeatedly for 20 years. The only way to correct for this is to poll in Spanish (preferably using Latinos rather than Anglos with training or Bots) and run your poll 24 hours a day to capture menial workers - two things that cost exponentially more than desirable.

Agreed that we should not just reflexively unskew it.

NYT/Siena does actually poll in Spanish, or at least they did in 2018. However, even when you poll in Spanish I have noticed over time that polls of Hispanic voters in particular tend to lowball Dems. The same is true of exit polls.

It also quite often seems to be the case that if you compare precinct results and either polls or exit polls, Dems tend to do better in terms of actual votes cast than one would expect based off of polls and exit polls of Hispanic voters. Yes, some of that is due to Hispanic voters in heavily Hispanic areas voting differently from ones in other precincts, but the effect normally seems to be larger than is easily explained by that alone.

I do find it plausible that Trump could do at least reasonably well in South TX (and to some degree West TX), especially in the more rural counties; there does seem to be at least somewhat of a GOP trend there over the past few years. I am more skeptical of how Trump will do with Hispanic voters in the Houston, Dallas, and Austin-SA metros.

[xavier110]

The complete suburban collapse we're seeing poll after poll really indicates to me that:

1) Ds are growing their House seat count, possibly semi-significantly
2) If other historically D constituencies turn out and the suburbs flip, this will be a bloodbath of epic proportions. Even if the shy Trumpers/WWC come out.

[MT Treasurer]

I know this is an atlas thing but if Texas goes Republican while Ohio goes Dem ill take it a silver lining in otherwise probably a disastrous night for the GOP(as dems probably have 53 senate seats then too)

There is no universe in which Biden wins OH and IA but loses TX by 4-5 points.

[ExSky]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

NYT isn’t even close to A+ for Texas LOL. They’re great in the swing states that have been swing states for decades. They were hilariously wrong in Texas in 2018.

[Sirius_]

Lean R > Lean R, though it seems like NYT/Siena has somewhat of a Republican bias this cycle.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1320783025043656705?s=21

So this would take it closer to 49-47 even with all the issues we've noted.

Failing Nate really asking for the egg here.

[ExSky]

Lean R > Lean R, though it seems like NYT/Siena has somewhat of a Republican bias this cycle.

NYT does seem like they’re the big name that got scared out of their mind by 2016 and severely overcompensated. The ridiculous number of undecideds from in every single poll is inexcusable. Cohn is hedging his bets

[Badger]

A respectable enough polling firm that I am now bearish on Biden's chances in Texas, but for goodness sake push the undecideds a bit more. I'm not ruling a win out but Sienna is definitely not Trafalgar or inside our advantage. Or gravis for that matter

[OSR stands with Israel]

I know this is an atlas thing but if Texas goes Republican while Ohio goes Dem ill take it a silver lining in otherwise probably a disastrous night for the GOP(as dems probably have 53 senate seats then too)

There is no universe in which Biden wins OH and IA but loses TX by 4-5 points.

No but loses by 1 point

[MT Treasurer]

I know this is an atlas thing but if Texas goes Republican while Ohio goes Dem ill take it a silver lining in otherwise probably a disastrous night for the GOP(as dems probably have 53 senate seats then too)

There is no universe in which Biden wins OH and IA but loses TX by 4-5 points.

No but loses by 1 point

I do think there’s a small chance of Trump winning TX by <1 while losing OH by the same margin, but I really don’t see IA voting to the left of TX. I’m not going to completely rule it out, but I’d trust the demographic fundamentals/electoral trends over polling any day in those states.

This also has Cornyn winning by 10, which I really don’t see happening even on a very good night for Republicans (and Cornyn would be way less nervous about his seat if this was even close to accurate).

[TopShelfGoal]

LOL come on guys stop whining about the poll. This is an A+ pollster. Maybe they are wrong, maybe they are underpolling certain groups, maybe not, the point is that the poll is not inherently bad as some of you are implying or outright stating. Some of you sound like Trump supporters here that throw a fit when they see numbers they don't like.

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

They are showing the same issues they had in 2018 in accurately reaching minority voters.

I mean they are showing Biden +24 among Hispanics, the exit polls had Beto +29, that is well within the margin of error of a smaller subsample. Maybe they still have systemic issues polling these voters like in 2018 or maybe they have made changes to correct that like other polling firms did to correct the systemic issues they had in 2016.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

All I’ll say is that this jokester needs to lose his polling job if TX votes left of IA, to say nothing if Biden wins Texas.


They nailed the Republicans’ final vote shares in the southwest in 2018, but dramatically missed Democrats’ shares. I can thus believe Trump being at 47, but there is no way Biden is losing if, by cohn’s own admission, he’s leading in Collin County. That doesn’t pass the bullsh**t test.

[ExSky]

LOL come on guys stop whining about the poll. This is an A+ pollster. Maybe they are wrong, maybe they are underpolling certain groups, maybe not, the point is that the poll is not inherently bad as some of you are implying or outright stating. Some of you sound like Trump supporters here that throw a fit when they see numbers they don't like.

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

They are showing the same issues they had in 2018 in accurately reaching minority voters.

I mean they are showing Biden +24 among Hispanics, the exit polls had Beto +29, that is well within the margin of error of a smaller subsample. Maybe they still have systemic issues polling these voters like in 2018 or maybe they have made changes to correct that like other polling firms did to correct the systemic issues they had in 2016.

When some of these polls consistently show the exact same issue election after election and refuse to do anything about it, it becomes extremely frustrating. The undecideds here a week out are absolutely obscene. And the Hispanic underpolling in Texas has been going for far longer than it should be. This has been going on for 10 years now and nothing has been changed to compensate for it while
Cohn tucked his tail under his legs and decided that not pushing undecideds was the answer because Hillary lost due to a minor fluctuation of about 75k votes combined in 3 states

[TopShelfGoal]

When some of these polls consistently show the exact same issue election after election and refuse to do anything about it, it becomes extremely frustrating. The undecideds here a week out are absolutely obscene. And the Hispanic underpolling in Texas has been going for far longer than it should be. This has been going on for 10 years now and nothing has been changed to compensate for it while
Cohn tucked his tail under his legs and decided that not pushing undecideds was the answer because Hillary lost due to a minor fluctuation of about 75k votes combined in 3 states

AFAIK NYT/Siena only started polling starting in 2018, so whether they "refuse" to do anything about their polling misses is pure conjecture. Cohn said on twitter they have tried addressing their polling missing the South West from 2018 which according to him due to turnout assumptions but left the possibility open on TX as that state is seeing historic turnout.

I am inclined to give an A+ pollster the benefit of doubt esp when their numbers aren't even that far out of line of what other pollsters are saying.

[Alben Barkley]

Same poll has Cornyn +10. I'm calling BS.

[mijan]

TX will turn into blue eventually if not in 2020 then it will surely happen in 2024.

[afleitch]

State polls shouldn't have more undecideds than national poll aggregates or presidential approvals. If they do, they need to start pushing undecideds.

[kwabbit]

Cohn should be given the benefit of the doubt here. He did miss in Texas in 2018, but given how intelligent and transparent NYT/Siena has been previously about methodology, I'd have to think they would've tried to resolve their SW polling issue.

Either way, it seems ridiculous to constantly criticize an A+ pollster because you don't like their results. And then turn around and use a 25 LV subsample of Collin County to disprove the rest of their poll.

[Intell]

People are so salty over a poll Jesus.

[Alben Barkley]

Cohn should be given the benefit of the doubt here. He did miss in Texas in 2018, but given how intelligent and transparent NYT/Siena has been previously about methodology, I'd have to think they would've tried to resolve their SW polling issue.

Either way, it seems ridiculous to constantly criticize an A+ pollster because you don't like their results. And then turn around and use a 25 LV subsample of Collin County to disprove the rest of their poll.

The number of undecideds is still a big problem, and as for the Hispanic thing, I’ll believe it when I see it. Can I believe they’ve improved their methodology to deal with their problems with these voters and this state in particular? Sure. But we won’t know if they succeeded until next week.