NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4

[BudgieForce]

Its not a great sign when a pollster becomes predictable.

[wbrocks67]

Also, yes, Biden definitely winning 18-29 year olds by only *HALF* the margin that Beto won by in 2018.

It's starting to become clearer than NYT/Siena is just really terrible in some states.

Let's go to Will Hurd for his 15 pt win in 2018.

[kireev]

It's going to be really hard to swing TX by 9 points to flip it if Biden is underperforming with Hispanics relative to Hillary and staying at her level with blacks. But the good thing is that it's an 11 point swing to Biden from 2016 with whites, which is really good sign for whites in Midwestern battleground states.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Not gonna lie, a bit disappointing. I was expecting something like Trump +1. Regardless, into the average.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 20-25
802 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%
Changes with September 16-22

Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 43% (n/c)
Jorgensen 3% (+2)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Someone else 1% (+1 from at 0% but with some voters)
Not voting for President 1% (+1 from at 0% but with some voters)
Don't know/Refused 5% (-4)

[MillennialModerate]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320775462856118272

Biden is winning Collin in this poll. Lmao.


Lean D.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm pretty doubtful of the Hispanic crosstabs. The Hispanic vote in TX is difficult to poll. I have seen this movie before. I recall the 2018 polls of TX-23 especially, where Hurd was supposedly safe, and I remember looking at the NYT live polling and seeing how difficult it was to get a sample. Things didn't turn out that way, and likewise did not in other Congressional district/Senate polls in Texas.

Still, crosstabs are crosstabs with small samples, and even if a poll is correct you normally expect to see some questionable crosstabs.

So throw it into the average.

It is unfortunate, though, that the poll doesn't have a crosstab of how people who already voted break down that I can see.

[Skye]

Its not a great sign when a pollster becomes predictable.

What.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Because the cross tabs seem fishy

[Sestak]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Ah yes, the A+ Texas pollster....

[afleitch]

Biden 57% among Hispanics and 78% among black voters.

Lyin' Loser Nate at at again!

Exceptional, given with Civiqs, Trump's approval rating is 26% and 8% respectively.

[Gass3268]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

They are showing the same issues they had in 2018 in accurately reaching minority voters.

[wbrocks67]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Because NYT/Siena has a horrible track record in TX. They had Cruz +8 and Hurd +15 in 2018, both way, way off. They seem to have a horrific time polling Latinos in TX specifically.

[Lief 🗽]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

This pollster is more of an F- when it comes to Texas.

[WD]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Because they’re terrible at polling TX. Remember when Will Hurd was going to win by 15 points?

[DrScholl]

Siena has been shown a lot more undecideds than other pollsters and at this stage in the race they are showing too many. Even in 2018 they missed in some places, most notably Nevada.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The last NYT/Siena Texas poll had Trump 46-43 with 11% undecided


I'll predict Trump 47-43 with 10% undecided. A margin just outside the margin of error that'd wash away any positive vibes that the UT-Tyler gave

LOL! I'm not even mad.

All I know is Election Night will be fun when Texas is within 2% all night

[xavier110]

Nothin' like freaking out over a poll showing the incumbent GOP president up by 4 in TX a week before the election

[Skye]

Siena has been shown a lot more undecideds than other pollsters and at this stage in the race they are showing too many. Even in 2018 they missed in some places, most notably Nevada.

5% are undecided in this poll.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm pretty doubtful of the Hispanic crosstabs. The Hispanic vote in TX is difficult to poll. I have seen this movie before. I recall the 2018 polls of TX-23 especially, where Hurd was supposedly safe, and I remember looking at the NYT live polling and seeing how difficult it was to get a sample. Things didn't turn out that way, and likewise did not in other Congressional district/Senate polls in Texas.

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1320774676600262658?s=20

That said, I don't believe in analyzing crosstabs or unskewing. People just have to understand that Dems consistently outperform their polls in the SW, we just are only used to it in NV because that is the state polled repeatedly for 20 years. The only way to correct for this is to poll in Spanish (preferably using Latinos rather than Anglos with training or Bots) and run your poll 24 hours a day to capture menial workers - two things that cost exponentially more than desirable.

[Brittain33]

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

Really high undecideds and known issues with polling Hispanics.

[Gass3268]

I read online they don’t poll in Spanish? Can anyone confirm? If true that could be the ballgame.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I know this is an atlas thing but if Texas goes Republican while Ohio goes Dem ill take it a silver lining in otherwise probably a disastrous night for the GOP(as dems probably have 53 senate seats then too)

[ShamDam]

Imagining the meltdown here if NYT/Siena showed a margin as tight as Biden+4 in PA