TX-Data For Progress: Cornyn +2

[Gracile]

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-6/dfp_psp_tx_10.26.pdf

John Cornyn (R-inc) 48%
MJ Hegar (D) 46%

[Lief 🗽]

Hegar surging... 👀

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538's listing this one as a partisan poll
10/22-10/25
1018 LV
MoE: 3.1%
Changes with October 15-18

Cornyn 48% (+4)
Hegar 46% (+5)
McKennon (L) 1% (-1)
[Writein] Turullols-Bonilla 1% (but some voters) (n/c)
Other candidate or write-in 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Don't know 3% (-9)

A truly shocking tightening. What could be hurting UT John Cornyn?

[Stuart98]

The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters. I'm skeptical that the outstanding votes will have more ticket splitters when all's said and done. If Biden's winning Texas, Hegar's probably winning Texas. And I think Biden's winning Texas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good to see the gap is closing

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Good to see the gap is closing

It's even more obvious how much of Cornyn's strength was illusory when you look at the voters who've already turned out:

https://twitter.com/StephieTheLefty/status/1320756512374095880

[Brittain33]

The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters. I'm skeptical that the outstanding votes will have more ticket splitters when all's said and done. If Biden's winning Texas, Hegar's probably winning Texas. And I think Biden's winning Texas.

This is why I have been optimistic about Hegar the last few weeks despite her trailing Cornyn. Undecideds are huge in the TX Senate race and I believe millions voting for Biden will also vote for Hegar even if she’s unknown.

[MillennialModerate]

Doesn’t this still come out to a comfortable GOP win?

Of the remaining voters (roughly 49% of the vote total) (mostly day of) are 60% GOP ... wouldn’t it off set these numbers?

(I’m getting my percentages based off of the poll the other day)

[MT Treasurer]

Hegar surging... 👀

The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters.

the gap is closing

Cornyn's strength was illusory

What? UT John Cornyn isn’t cruising to reelection on a night when Republicans are in danger of losing Iowa and Biden is no worse than a 50/50 bet to win Texas? Who could have possibly seen this coming?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hegar surging... 👀

The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters.

the gap is closing

What? Cornyn isn’t cruising to reelection on a night when Republicans are in danger of losing Iowa and Biden is no worse than a 50/50 bet to win Texas? Who could have possibly seen this coming?

It's the Hegar effect. Could she be an even stronger candidate than Beto?

[MT Treasurer]

It's the Hegar effect. Could she be an even stronger candidate than Beto?

Yeah, I’ve admittedly been reluctant to admit it so far because I thought nothing could ever top Beto's campaign, but I’ve got to it hand it to her now: She’s turned out to be an amazing candidate.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's the Hegar effect. Could she be an even stronger candidate than Beto?

Yeah, I’ve admittedly been reluctant to admit it so far because I thought nothing could ever top Beto's campaign, but I’ve got to it hand it to her now: She’s turned out to be an amazing candidate.

Yep, no doubt she would be doing just as well if it were Hillary Clinton running for re-election rather than Trump. Because she is just that great of a candidate, and #CandidatesMatter.

[Xing]

Why aren't they polling Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, or Tarrant, where exactly 100% of Biden voters are enthusiastically voting for a Cornyn NUT map?

[tagimaucia]

The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters. I'm skeptical that the outstanding votes will have more ticket splitters when all's said and done. If Biden's winning Texas, Hegar's probably winning Texas. And I think Biden's winning Texas.

The D4P TX poll from a week earlier *did* show a gap of 6 points between presidential and senate among already voted, while this one shows no gap. I hope the newer poll is more accurate (but clearly there are at least some ticket splitters).

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Hope For A New Era]

Looks like she's finally got that name-recognition problem fixed, and not a moment too soon.

Watch her win without leading in a single poll.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters. I'm skeptical that the outstanding votes will have more ticket splitters when all's said and done. If Biden's winning Texas, Hegar's probably winning Texas. And I think Biden's winning Texas.

Would've never guessed from his public freakout over the early vote & favorable TX polls for Biden.

[MT Treasurer]

It's the Hegar effect. Could she be an even stronger candidate than Beto?

Yeah, I’ve admittedly been reluctant to admit it so far because I thought nothing could ever top Beto's campaign, but I’ve got to it hand it to her now: She’s turned out to be an amazing candidate.

Yep, no doubt she would be doing just as well if it were Hillary Clinton running for re-election rather than Trump. Because she is just that great of a candidate, and #CandidatesMatter.

I just hope the Hegar effect won’t strong enough to imperil the Republican hold on the state's 38 electoral votes, TX-02, TX-03, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, TX-31, and even the TX House of Representatives.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good to see the gap is closing

And you still have SC and TX red and the D's are gonna win

[Wrenchmob]

Cornyn wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn wins.

You really think so, the ACB isn't the only thing driving D's to polls, it is the failed stimulus bill that is stalled in Senate

[Wrenchmob]

Cornyn wins.

You really think so, the ACB isn't the only thing driving D's to polls, it is the failed stimulus bill that is stalled in Senate

It's gonna be close, but Ds didn't pick the best candidate here.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Cornyn wins.

Neat.

[7,052,770]

Cornyn wins.

You really think so, the ACB isn't the only thing driving D's to polls, it is the failed stimulus bill that is stalled in Senate

It's gonna be close, but Ds didn't pick the best candidate here.

All you gotta be is good enough though. Just look at Mississippi and Alabama.

[7,052,770]

The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters. I'm skeptical that the outstanding votes will have more ticket splitters when all's said and done. If Biden's winning Texas, Hegar's probably winning Texas. And I think Biden's winning Texas.

Agreed. Among people who haven't yet voted, it's:
Trump 50, Biden 44
Cornyn 50, Hegar 39

There's no vote splitting. Those Biden/undecideds just don't know about the Senate race yet. There's no evidence of a Biden/Cornyn block.

I'm more convinced than ever that if Biden wins the state, Hegar does too.