TX - University of Houston/YouGov: Trump +5

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good poll for Trump; curious to see if this ends up being right of the polls that show Biden leading. Pure tossup. If TX polls are off in either direction, it'll likely due to turnout that wasn't really expected. TX is obviously a challenge to poll for so many reasons

[ProgressiveModerate]

This seems like a realistic result for Texas.

I would be surprised if Trump won TX by 5%. The state probably trends to the left from 2016 by default just due to Demographic change and higher turnout in the urban centers from 2016 (Some counties like Hays are already over 100% 2016 turnout from early vote). Furthermore, it looks like it's almost guarenteed Trump will do worse in the NPV from 2016. I would say Trump winning TX by 5% is probably his best case, or close to it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is depressing. It's all going to come down to PA I guess.

TX was never going to be the tipping point. It would be a nice cherry on top, but is by no means necessary to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This isn’t new but I love that when a poll of Texas/Ohio/Iowa/GA comes out and its like Trump +4 or 5, people act like the state is safe Trump. But a Biden +4 or +5 is tilt or slightly lean Biden

If you believe in shy Trump voters it's logical to view things that way.

Except the whole basis for shy Trump supporters is pretty illogical.