TX - University of Houston/YouGov: Trump +5
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  TX - University of Houston/YouGov: Trump +5
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Author Topic: TX - University of Houston/YouGov: Trump +5  (Read 2685 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 26, 2020, 09:06:25 AM »
« edited: October 26, 2020, 10:11:57 AM by VARepublican »

Trump 50%
Biden 45%

https://uh.edu/hobby/election2020/?utm_source=miragenews&utm_medium=miragenews&utm_campaign=news
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Buzz
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 09:07:15 AM »

Slightly reassuring.  Sad as hell I need to be reassured about Texas a week before the election though.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 09:08:37 AM »

Good poll for Trump; curious to see if this ends up being right of the polls that show Biden leading. Pure tossup. If TX polls are off in either direction, it'll likely due to turnout that wasn't really expected. TX is obviously a challenge to poll for so many reasons
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 09:09:26 AM »

This seems like a realistic result for Texas.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 09:10:46 AM »

Slightly reassuring.  Sad as hell I need to be reassured about Texas a week before the election though.
How is this reassuring? Trump won Texas by 9% in 2016. Also, a Republican presidential candidate should be leading by double digits in Texas - much less the incumbent Republican POTUS.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 09:11:16 AM »

All the Ds were so giddy about the TX poll showing Biden ahead, FL will most likely flip
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 09:11:47 AM »

Texas pollsters really cannot poll Latinos.

2016: Clinton +27
2018: Beto +29
2020: Biden +18

That's not happening.

The average for TX right now is spot on but a lot of these pollsters like this one are likely to have egg on their face. Even if Biden loses TX, he's not losing by 5.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 09:12:06 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 10:03:54 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Other 3% (jorgensen 2% and hawkins 0% but with some voters)
Unsure 3%

Conducted by YouGov
October 13-20
1000 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 09:12:24 AM »

We all know that Trump's margin is going to be much lower than the usual Republican victory margin with the turnout the Dems are banking as we speak.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 09:12:37 AM »

This seems like a realistic result for Texas.

I would be surprised if Trump won TX by 5%. The state probably trends to the left from 2016 by default just due to Demographic change and higher turnout in the urban centers from 2016 (Some counties like Hays are already over 100% 2016 turnout from early vote). Furthermore, it looks like it's almost guarenteed Trump will do worse in the NPV from 2016. I would say Trump winning TX by 5% is probably his best case, or close to it.
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Buzz
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 09:13:53 AM »

Slightly reassuring.  Sad as hell I need to be reassured about Texas a week before the election though.
How is this reassuring? Trump won Texas by 9% in 2016. A Republican presidential candidate should be leading by double digits in Texas - much less the incumbent Republican POTUS.
Because Texas is a state that is changing obviously.  His polling has been bad here, so this is good to see.  UoH also only had Trump up 3 in TX in 2016, but there was hella undecided in that poll.
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 09:15:41 AM »

Slightly reassuring.  Sad as hell I need to be reassured about Texas a week before the election though.
How is this reassuring? Trump won Texas by 9% in 2016. A Republican presidential candidate should be leading by double digits in Texas - much less the incumbent Republican POTUS.
Because Texas is a state that is changing obviously.  His polling has been bad here, so this is good to see.  UoH also only had Trump up 3 in TX in 2016, but there was hella undecided in that poll.

My expectation is between Biden +2 and Trump +5. My guess is something like Trump 50 Biden 48.
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Beet
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 09:16:06 AM »

This is depressing. It's all going to come down to PA I guess.
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Ljube
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 09:17:22 AM »

This is depressing. It's all going to come down to PA I guess.

Or maybe Minnesota.
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 09:20:00 AM »

Yeah I don't think this is a bad poll or anything but I don't see Biden doing worse than Beto. GOP vote is pretty close to maxed out in the rural areas where as the big metros and their suburbs have trended D. Trump could very well win this but I imagine the margin will be in 1-3 point range. That said, throw this in the average, lets see what NYT/Sienna says this afternoon
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afleitch
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 09:21:56 AM »

Worth remembering the dates for this poll are exactly the same the UT-Tyler Biden +3 poll.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 09:22:09 AM »

Everyone should probably be paying attention to the average here in TX, not just one specific poll.
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2020, 09:23:40 AM »

This is depressing. It's all going to come down to PA I guess.

Or maybe Minnesota.


If that happened, I think that would be a way for Republicans to solve their problems for good. Luckily, it isn't happening.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2020, 09:23:59 AM »

This is depressing. It's all going to come down to PA I guess.

TX was never going to be the tipping point. It would be a nice cherry on top, but is by no means necessary to win.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2020, 09:24:37 AM »

Texas is a tossup, it's all turnout
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forza nocta
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2020, 09:35:13 AM »

This isn’t new but I love that when a poll of Texas/Ohio/Iowa/GA comes out and its like Trump +4 or 5, people act like the state is safe Trump. But a Biden +4 or +5 is tilt or slightly lean Biden
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2020, 09:38:24 AM »

Likely to Safe R, closer to likely than Safe. I feel so bad for Beto, he went out on the limb to declare Biden was gonna win TX
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Horus
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2020, 09:39:30 AM »

This isn’t new but I love that when a poll of Texas/Ohio/Iowa/GA comes out and its like Trump +4 or 5, people act like the state is safe Trump. But a Biden +4 or +5 is tilt or slightly lean Biden

If you believe in shy Trump voters it's logical to view things that way.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2020, 09:59:11 AM »

Joaquin of Beto would have won the Senate race, TX don't send females to federal office when they the state has a strong male candidate, Valdez in 2018 lost by a landslide the Gov race.

The females can win Congress but Senate or Gov or Prez is different. Dems didn't have a choice that much in primary
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2020, 10:01:39 AM »

This isn’t new but I love that when a poll of Texas/Ohio/Iowa/GA comes out and its like Trump +4 or 5, people act like the state is safe Trump. But a Biden +4 or +5 is tilt or slightly lean Biden

If you believe in shy Trump voters it's logical to view things that way.

Except the whole basis for shy Trump supporters is pretty illogical.
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