University of Wisconsin/YouGov: MI - Biden +10 | PA - Biden +8 | WI - Biden +9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Trafalgar polls today that's why it's beautiful

[ExSky]

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9

How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.

It is unlikely anybody will win Indies by huge numbers.

Why's that? Because you say so?

Biden has led by a solid margin with independents since at least this summer.

You can believe what you wish, but this is a sign that there is something wrong with the polling. Again. Let's wait for the Marquette poll.

You can believe what you wish.

[Orser67]

Still, we might be getting to the point where Team Trump needs to pray for an unusual path to 269/270 (such as conceding the Rust Belt, winning AZ+FL+GA+NC, and also winning NV+NH).  

Outside of a freak flip of MN (or something else), that's really the only conceivable way that they tie or win without the Rust Belt trio.  

Trump's polling is pretty terrible in NH and ME, and (as you implied) it would be pretty surprising for MN to flip before both WI and MI. I could see NV emerging as a major state at the last second, but excluding the possibility of Biden losing multiple faithless electors, I just don't see a path for Trump without at least one of PA+WI+MI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook PVI: MI, MN, VA, CO, NV and WI all 3-4 points Democratic,  Cook PVI NM 6

AZ and NC and we will see about FL all are even to D plus 2. Those are the states were decided by Johnson and Stein plus 4 margin

[Illiniwek]

BADGER JOE

[pbrower2a]

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9

Not if those numbers are heavily African-American, which is likely in all three states.  Blacks have been urged to vote early, and they seem to be doing so.  Still, those are votes that Biden can bank and that Trump will not likely recover from.

We shall see whether Trump can udo any possible (still unproven) "enthusiasm gap".

[pbrower2a]

Between these three states:

L  %W
0    50
1    60
2    67   
3    76   
4    85   
5    89
6    92   
7    94   
8    96 
9    97
10  98

Directly from Nate Silver's probabilities of wins in Senate races with one week left in the race; others interpolated

Conveniently, Biden is not ahead by more than 10% in any of these three polls, but Trump chances at this point based on these three polls alone are 1-Biden multiplied by each (probabilities of independent events are multiplicative, and I must tell you that:

1. Unless Trump loses Arizona, Florida, Georgia, or North Carolina he can win without winning Michigan... Should Trump lose either Iowa or Ohio, then he is losing all three of these states anyway.

2. Trump's chances of winning are .04 x .03 = .0012 based upon him winning both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That is just over 1/10 of one percent, and that is if much else goes right for Trump. 

We haven't seen an electoral collapse of this nature since at lest Dukakis in 1988 or Carter in 1980. I am calling it now.

[2016]

These Polls are the utter most garbarge I've ever seen. They were done Oct. 13-21 before Biden fumbled the Question about fracking & shutting down the oil industry at the Debate.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

These Polls are the utter most garbarge I've ever seen. They were done Oct. 13-21 before Biden fumbled the Question about fracking & shutting down the oil industry at the Debate.

The only people who think muh fracking is a major issue in this election are people who were already in the tank for Trump.

[Alben Barkley]

And yet that ridiculous “Center for American Greatness Insider Advantage” poll is getting far more discussion than this one.

Sad!

[Alben Barkley]

These Polls are the utter most garbarge I've ever seen. They were done Oct. 13-21 before Biden fumbled the Question about fracking & shutting down the oil industry at the Debate.

I still don’t understand. Why do you think Biden supporting fracking will hurt him? Do you think it was a mistake for him to not oppose it? Are Pennsylvania voters actually opposed to fracking in your opinion?

I don’t get it.

[TheLaRocca]

State Polls have really become trash. Best to follow national margin and base state level results on that along with demographic changes and fundamentals (CD polling is likely were things start to move after this).

Biden is not up by 8 or more in those three states. Put down the crack.

[Badger]

Good numbers for Biden but I don't trust YouGov. They consistently overestimated Warren (my girl) in the Dem primaries. That suggests their samples are overeducated. It's going to be a lot closer than this.

Even if the leads are literally half as big as that pulled here, with half of the difference taken from Biden and the other half added to Trump, that puts Biden at or above 50% in every one of these states.

Even with such generous assumptions, one could effectively put fork in Trump now.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m glad that they don’t show MI/WI/PA voting far apart, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Biden won’t be winning the Rust Belt trifecta by 8-10 points while supposedly losing TX by 4-5 points. I do expect Biden to win WI/MI/PA somewhat comfortably, but state-specific issues with polling cannot be ignored, and it’s not exactly impossible that polls might be overstating Biden's strength in WI/MI while understating it in TX/GA/AZ.

[Bojack Horseman]

I haven't joined this fad yet so,

NUT!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rand]

I haven't joined this fad yet so,

NUT!!!!!!!!!!!

We welcome everyone to the NUT gang. Come one, come all.

[Hammy]

Comparison to 2016:

Pennsylvania was D 48-40 a week before the election. Polls did over-estimate Hillary by a point (technically half point, statistically negligible but I'll go with it) and Trump came in 8 points higher, and there were 12% undecided/other. If we take the same error, about 60% of undecideds went to Trump, along with a small portion of Hillary's vote

Extrapolating the 2016 errors, you could get a range between D 51-48 and D 52-47 from this poll.

Wisconsin was 43-39 in early October (YouGov's last Wisconsin poll) and 18% undecided/other. Hillary reached 46 and Trump 47--so neither were over-polled and it comes down to undecideds.

44% went to Trump, and 17% to Hillary. Taking that error into account here, it would give us a 54-46 win for Biden, with Trump's ceiling likely being no higher than 48.

Michigan was not polled by YouGov any later than July so I'm not able to make a comparison. But if you average the polling error on the margins themselves, average them, and apply it to Michigan, you'd get roughly D 51-49, or D 51-47 if you simply apply Wisconsin's margin.

Granted, the polls could end up under-polling Biden more, but given that he's over 50% it'd make no difference.

[Rep Jessica]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targeted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

He is a better president then Clinton or Obama ever will be...Probably better then Reagan, both Bushes. Can't win.

[EJ24]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targetted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

Hahahahahahahahahaha

[Liberalrocks]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targeted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

He is a better president then Clinton or Obama ever will be...Probably better then Reagan, both Bushes. Can't win.

Reality and facts can't be denied forever, Trumps luck is up. There are no "alternative facts" in 2020.

[Malarkey Decider]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targetted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

[soundchaser]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targeted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

He is a better president then Clinton or Obama ever will be...Probably better then Reagan, both Bushes. Can't win.

Depending on the margin he loses the popular vote by, this could still be true.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targetted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

Hahahahahahahahahaha

Is this going to be a new "mom and chicken fingers" copypasta? I expect to see this join SirWoodbury's meme quotes.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targeted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

He is a better president then Clinton or Obama ever will be...Probably better then Reagan, both Bushes. Can't win.

[EJ24]

I hate to say it but this is worst then the titanic in the way it has less time to steer the ship away from the ice berg. This is painful but these numbers in the rust belt with arizonia, Florida and Nc make me sick.

Trump wasn't perfect but he did more to fix our treasonous trade deals then any president in the history of this country. He did more to fix the middle east and bring together countries then any president of the past 50 years. The guy stopped full blown war in the koreas. He tried to fix the unfair system that men like biden voted on in 1993 that targetted blacks for decades in prison...Yet it isn't enough. Makes me sick. Goddamnit.

Hahahahahahahahahaha

Is this going to be a new "mom and chicken fingers" copypasta? I expect to see this join SirWoodbury's meme quotes.

Lmfao where did that originate from anyway? I see it all the time.