University of Wisconsin/YouGov: MI - Biden +10 | PA - Biden +8 | WI - Biden +9
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  University of Wisconsin/YouGov: MI - Biden +10 | PA - Biden +8 | WI - Biden +9
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Author Topic: University of Wisconsin/YouGov: MI - Biden +10 | PA - Biden +8 | WI - Biden +9  (Read 3660 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 26, 2020, 06:41:51 AM »

Michigan
52% Biden
42% Trump

Pennsylvania
52% Biden
44% Trump

Wisconsin
53% Biden
44% Trump

Source
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 06:44:50 AM »

BEAUTIFUL.
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EJ24
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 06:47:51 AM »

And that's the 278 firewall

BOOM!!!!
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Horus
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 06:48:50 AM »

Did the Badgers poll 2016 around this time as well?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 06:49:00 AM »

Wow. And this poll was kind of bearish on Biden before too.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 06:49:48 AM »

Good numbers for Biden.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 06:54:07 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 06:58:30 AM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

Poll was taken from Oct. 13-21, so it likely doesn't pick up any changes from the final debate (not that I expect any major ones).  

Still, we might be getting to the point where Team Trump needs to pray for an unusual path to 269/270 (such as conceding the Rust Belt, winning AZ+FL+GA+NC, and also winning NV+NH).  

Outside of a freak flip of MN (or something else), that's really the only conceivable way that they tie or win without the Rust Belt trio.  
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 06:54:14 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 06:56:34 AM »


Please do tell us what makes these numbers "very suspicious."
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EJ24
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 06:57:08 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


That's not "suspicious", it's a whoopin.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 06:58:20 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 07:16:14 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Conducted by YouGov
October 13-21
Changes with September 10-21

MI
681 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 42% (-3)
Other/not sure 5%

PA
669 likely lvoters
MoE: 4.45%

Biden 52% (+3)
Trump 44% (-1)
Other/not sure 3%

WI
647 likely voters
MoE: 4.07%

Biden 53% (+3)
Trump 44% (-2)
Other/not sure 3%
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American2020
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 06:58:47 AM »

The Upper Midwest Blue Wall is Back !!!!!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 07:00:18 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.
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Ljube
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 07:01:10 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.

It is unlikely anybody will win Indies by huge numbers.
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EJ24
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 07:02:35 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.

It is unlikely anybody will win Indies by huge numbers.

Why's that? Because you say so?

Biden has led by a solid margin with independents since at least this summer.
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Ljube
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 07:04:03 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.

It is unlikely anybody will win Indies by huge numbers.

Why's that? Because you say so?

Biden has led by a solid margin with independents since at least this summer.

You can believe what you wish, but this is a sign that there is something wrong with the polling. Again. Let's wait for the Marquette poll.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 07:05:59 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.

It is unlikely anybody will win Indies by huge numbers.

Why's that? Because you say so?

Biden has led by a solid margin with independents since at least this summer.

You can believe what you wish, but this is a sign that there is something wrong with the polling. Again. Let's wait for the Marquette poll.


LMAO! Just because you don't like what they're saying doesn't make them wrong! Is this a bot or something? Or are you this delusional?
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Buzz
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2020, 07:10:26 AM »

Damn
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compucomp
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2020, 07:20:35 AM »

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2020, 07:21:53 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.

It is unlikely anybody will win Indies by huge numbers.

You constantly say that without ever offering a shred of evidence.
For the last time, nobody cares about your gut or your hunches.
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n1240
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2020, 07:39:45 AM »

Biden will do very well among independent voters who vote before election day and Trump will do better among independents who vote on election day, with Biden doing better overall. Shouldn't be that hard to understand!
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Beet
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2020, 07:43:57 AM »

Good numbers for Biden but I don't trust YouGov. They consistently overestimated Warren (my girl) in the Dem primaries. That suggests their samples are overeducated. It's going to be a lot closer than this.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2020, 07:45:16 AM »

In the PA Republican Prez primary this year, Trump did considerably worse with R mail in voters than ED voters, especially in the Philly burbs, so that number isn't far fetched.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2020, 07:54:28 AM »

Very suspicious numbers.

Already voted:

WI:
Biden: 73
Trump: 26

MI:
Biden: 75
Trump: 23

PA:
Biden: 87
Trump: 9


How are these suspicious? Take the PA #s right now. 70% of returned ballots are Dems. Only 20% are Reps. If Dems are winning Indies by huge numbers.. this checks out.

It is unlikely anybody will win Indies by huge numbers.

Why's that? Because you say so?

Biden has led by a solid margin with independents since at least this summer.

You can believe what you wish, but this is a sign that there is something wrong with the polling. Again. Let's wait for the Marquette poll.


I think I agree. Those early voting numbers suggest Biden could be in for an even bigger win. Beautiful stuff.
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n1240
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2020, 07:55:11 AM »

In the PA Republican Prez primary this year, Trump did considerably worse with R mail in voters than ED voters, especially in the Philly burbs, so that number isn't far fetched.

Yeah it's not like Biden would won 50% of registered Republicans voting early, but 15-20% of mail-in voting registered Republicans in PA could feasibly vote for Biden (compared to election day probably only 3-4% would vote Biden). 87-9 is definitely extreme but can be still be attributed to crosstab noise.
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