AJC/UGA - GA: TIED

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

*Reporting this as a tie based on the non-rounded topline -- sorry, guys!*

(Oct. 14-23 // 1,145 LV // MOE:  4%)

With rounding:  

Biden 47%
Trump 46%
Jorgensen 3%
Undecided 4%

Without rounding:  

Biden 46.5% (-0.5)
Trump 46.2% (-1.1)
Jorgensen 2.9% (+1.5)
Undecided 4.4% (n/c)

*Non-rounded changes based on poll conducted from Sep. 11-20*

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1320666731791163395

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1320666731791163395

I want to believe it ... I really do

[Ljube]

So, what is this?

Landmark finds a steady movement toward Trump and AJC finds a movement toward Biden?

[wbrocks67]

So, what is this?

Landmark finds a steady movement toward Trump and AJC finds a movement toward Biden?

AJC is actually in line with the average. Landmark was out of step, as they have been for most of this cycle.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1320666731791163395

I want to believe it ... I really do

I mean, it's not that hard to imagine? Abrams nearly won in 2018 and Trump is a disaster. The EV is insane. This isn't that hard to believe

[Ljube]

So, what is this?

Landmark finds a steady movement toward Trump and AJC finds a movement toward Biden?

AJC is actually in line with the average. Landmark was out of step, as they have been for most of this cycle.

I'm not commenting the topline numbers, but the trends.

[Skye]

Note that, with decimals, it's 46.5 to 46.2, so a 0.3 margin.

[Ljube]

The margin is within the margin of error. It's not that.

Their last poll was Trump+2.

On the other hand the previous two Landmark polls were Biden+2, then Trump+2, now Trump+4.

[Ljube]

The margin is within the margin of error. It's not that.

Their last poll was Trump+2.

On the other hand the previous two Landmark polls were Biden+2, then Trump+2, now Trump+4.

Correction. The last AJC poll was actually Trump+1 and it is now Biden+less than 1.
Not much of a movement at all.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The margin is within the margin of error. It's not that.

Their last poll was Trump+2.

On the other hand the previous two Landmark polls were Biden+2, then Trump+2, now Trump+4.

Correction. The last AJC poll was actually Trump+1 and it is now Biden+less than 1.
Not much of a movement at all.

My bad! I was going off the interactive poll results page instead of the toplines.  Skye is right, though -- in such a potentially close race, it's best to include the exact numbers. 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'll take it!

It's absolutely on the tossup side rather than the "Likely R / Dem Fools Gold" side.

Really looking forward to Biden's upcoming visit.

[Hammy]

I don't like polls where the leader is below the runner-up's likely floor. Georgia's increasingly feeling like a state with a very narrow range of outcomes, the largest being a 50-48/51-49 regardless of who carries it.

[Buzz]

I just looked for their final 2016 polls for fun and the top headline was literally the exact same lol.  “Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in GA” it was Trump +2 btw

[Ljube]

I just looked for their final 2016 polls for fun and the top headline was literally the exact same lol.  “Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in GA” it was Trump +2 btw

Landmark was Trump+4 at the same time in 2016.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I just looked for their final 2016 polls for fun and the top headline was literally the exact same lol.  “Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in GA” it was Trump +2 btw

Yup, was Trump +2 (44-42-9).  It undershot Trump's final vote-share by around six, Clinton's by around three, and overshot Johnson's vote-share by around six.  

[Buzz]

I just looked for their final 2016 polls for fun and the top headline was literally the exact same lol.  “Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in GA” it was Trump +2 btw

Yup, was Trump +2 (44-42-9).  It undershot Trump's final vote-share by around six, Clinton's by around three, and overshot Johnson's vote-share by around six.  

Right.  Also their final Kemp/Abrams poll had Abrams at 46.9 and Kemp at 46.7, so nearly identical to this.

[VAR]

Well, it’s remarkable how stable GA polls have been (Landmark aside).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Also (and my apologies if I read your post wrong -- immunology has fried my brain): in response to a poster who claimed that Biden was not doing any more in-person campaigning across the next week:

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is headed to Georgia on Tuesday, part of a late effort by the campaign to flip a state that Republicans have carried in every White House contest since 1996.

The former vice president will deliver remarks Tuesday afternoon in Warm Springs on “bringing Americans together to address the crises facing our nation,” his campaign said, before an evening drive-in rally in Atlanta to encourage Georgians to cast their ballots during the last week of early voting.

[Tender Branson]

Biden will win GA by 5, but Kemp’s unskewing software will show election results as Trump+1.

[VAR]

Trump approval: 49/50 (-1)

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1320688801128370179

Is it common polling methodology to not even look for new/first time voters?  Seems problematic, at least in a high-turnout presidential year.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1320688801128370179

Is it common polling methodology to not even look for new/first time voters?  Seems problematic, at least in a high-turnout presidential year.

How do you seek out first-time voters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

For all the talk about Brian Kemp suppressing the vote, which I think is highly overblown to begin with (although Georgia has had very real suppression issues with voter purges and closing of polling places, don't forget that as SoS Kemp instituted AVR) -- after narrowly winning in 2018, do you really think Kemp would rather run for reelection in a Trump midterm vs a Biden midterm?

[Rookie Yinzer]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1320666731791163395

I want to believe it ... I really do

Well the people who matter believe which is why Biden will be in GA tomorrow.

[wbrocks67]

Trump approval: 49/50 (-1)

Hm, this makes me think this even might be a bit R-leaning. I doubt his approval is nearly = right now.