How many chambers could flip and what are the major ones
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  How many chambers could flip and what are the major ones
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Author Topic: How many chambers could flip and what are the major ones  (Read 608 times)
MillennialModerate
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« on: October 25, 2020, 12:56:20 PM »

Does anyone know how many chambers could flip and in what directions?

What states could now have Trifectas or Super Majorities with Opposing Governors or Super majorities with same party Governors? I haven’t gotten straight answers
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Panda Express
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2020, 01:03:20 PM »

State House

Very good chance of flipping AZ and MI
Somewhat of a chance at flipping IA, NC, TX
Longshot chance at flipping PA, AK

State Senate

Very good chance at flipping AZ and MN
Longshot chance at flipping NC
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2020, 01:33:48 PM »

At this point, I think Dems gain a net of five chambers:

MN-Senate
AZ-House
AZ-Senate
MI-House
IA-House

Wouldn’t surprise me to see the Texas House and NC Senate flip as well.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2020, 02:13:28 PM »

I'd also like to point out Kansas, where the end of Republican supermajorities in both houses is a near-certainty at this point. Laura Kelly actually won a majority of both state Senate and state House districts in 2018, so in theory hers is the coalition of the future D Kansas (if trends continue).
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Orser67
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 10:36:10 PM »

For redistricting, the big one is probably TX-house (break R trifecta). You've also got MN senate (gain D trifecta), a longshot chance of both houses in NC (gain D trifecta), and the potential to break the Republican super-majority in KS. Less relevant to redistricting, both chambers in AZ, the IA house, the MI house, and the PA house could flip D, while the AK house could flip R. Maybe FL-house or one of the GA chambers could flip D in a miracle.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 11:00:46 PM »

It is hilarious how the Florida Democrats are so incompetent and the Florida Republicans are so competent than Democrats have no chance of breaking one of the longest standing* GOP trifectas in the country in America's quintessential "swing" state.

*broken briefly in 2010 by Charlie Crist as an independent.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 11:36:23 PM »

For redistricting, the big one is probably TX-house (break R trifecta). You've also got MN senate (gain D trifecta), a longshot chance of both houses in NC (gain D trifecta), and the potential to break the Republican super-majority in KS. Less relevant to redistricting, both chambers in AZ, the IA house, the MI house, and the PA house could flip D, while the AK house could flip R. Maybe FL-house or one of the GA chambers could flip D in a miracle.

FL-Sen flips before FL-House I think
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 03:03:19 AM »

Dems won the 2018 PA house vote by 10 points and failed to win the chamber. It is a very tough gerrymander, that will be tough to break in 2020.
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Donerail
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 03:55:17 AM »

For redistricting, the big one is probably TX-house (break R trifecta). You've also got MN senate (gain D trifecta), a longshot chance of both houses in NC (gain D trifecta), and the potential to break the Republican super-majority in KS. Less relevant to redistricting, both chambers in AZ, the IA house, the MI house, and the PA house could flip D, while the AK house could flip R. Maybe FL-house or one of the GA chambers could flip D in a miracle.

FL-Sen flips before FL-House I think
It does not — Democrats need 3 seats to share power in the Senate and they're only competing in 2. The House might flip, there's enough seats in play for it to be possible (in fact I think the odds of flipping the House are underrated if anything, lot of incumbents in very uncomfortable seats they only held by a couple points in '18), but the Senate won't this cycle.
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