NC (Trafalgar): Trump + 3

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 20-22
1098 likely voters
MoE: 2.89%
Changes with September 9-11:

Trump 49% (+1)
Biden 46% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Blankenship 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-1)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm contemplating not using Trafalgar anymore in my model. On the one hand, I don't want to be biased and it's important to include outliers in both directions. On the other hand their polls are just stupid.

[Ljube]

I'm contemplating not using Trafalgar anymore in my model. On the one hand, I don't want to be biased and it's important to include outliers in both directions. On the other hand their polls are just stupid.

On the other hand, their polls were pretty accurate in 2016. Even if they are off by anywhere from 2 to 4 points, they are still better than Quinnipiac polls. Therefore, I recommend you keep them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm contemplating not using Trafalgar anymore in my model. On the one hand, I don't want to be biased and it's important to include outliers in both directions. On the other hand their polls are just stupid.

On the other hand, their polls were pretty accurate in 2016. Even if they are off by anywhere from 2 to 4 points, they are still better than Quinnipiac polls. Therefore, I recommend you keep them.

I mean, I personally think they get too much credit for being right in 2016. They largely tend to be quite bullish on Rs relative to other polls. In 2016 where Rs widely outperformed polls, especially in the rust belt, they look great, but in 2018, outside FL, they didn't do very well. Since then, the gap between them and other pollsters has become even more extreme. I think I'll keep them, to pull the model a bit more towards Trump and increase uncertainty, as obviously, this cycle has had so many twists and turns

[Wiz in Wis]

Looks like Trafalgar might get dropped from the Economist model for using leading question wording - on top of the math manipulation. Seems like we've got a new Research 2000 on our hands, folks.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1320445509249748993

[Senator Incitatus]

WY (Trafalgar): Trump +3

CA (Trafalgar): Biden +2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F50GhQFuthpATgxIiDqADXjmgk_iNFBm/view

[DrScholl]

Looks like Trafalgar might get dropped from the Economist model for using leading question wording - on top of the math manipulation. Seems like we've got a new Research 2000 on our hands, folks.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1320445509249748993

At this point it's starting to look like they have been outright faking polls.

[lfromnj]

Genuine question,

if they are faking the polls why don't they have more realistic crosstabs?

This doesn't mean the polls aren't junk, I am just saying why would they show Biden winning 25% of Republicans instead of just doing 10% and lowering Trump's percentage with Dems?

[DaleCooper]

Genuine question,

if they are faking the polls why don't they have more realistic crosstabs?

This doesn't mean the polls aren't junk, I am just saying why would they show Biden winning 25% of Republicans instead of just doing 10% and lowering Trump's percentage with Dems?

The simple answer is that they probably just don't know what they're doing and don't have a nuanced enough understanding of the electorate to fake crosstabs. A lot of self-proclaimed experts that support Trump tend to say whatever they feel must be true. I vividly remember Dave Rubin (cultural critic and poli-sci major) predicting last year that Trump would get 30% of the black vote and that Candace Owens would become a US Senator.

[Alben Barkley]

Just a reminder: This is a pollster that has claimed 50 Cent’s (now retracted) endorsement of Donald Trump made black people feel more comfortable expressing support for Trump, thus he has higher numbers.

Why anyone takes them seriously at all, I do not understand. They’ll lose any shred of credibility they lucked into in 2016 after this election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a reminder: This is a pollster that has claimed 50 Cent’s (now retracted) endorsement of Donald Trump made black people feel more comfortable expressing support for Trump, thus he has higher numbers.

Why anyone takes them seriously at all, I do not understand. They’ll lose any shred of credibility they lucked into in 2016 after this election.

Their polls are just as silly as other media polls showing a 500 map for Biden, it's somewhere in between. D's gets so giddy when they see Biden ahead in TX and HEGAR trails by 10, pts


Watch we will see some Rassy polls next week showing Trump ahead in TX, if Bullock and Galloway are losing, Biden isn't winning TX, and both of them are losing