NC (Trafalgar): Trump + 3
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  NC (Trafalgar): Trump + 3
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Author Topic: NC (Trafalgar): Trump + 3  (Read 1919 times)
Buzz
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« on: October 25, 2020, 12:00:52 PM »

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Woody
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2020, 12:07:39 PM »

Lean R.
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tjstarling
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2020, 12:07:42 PM »

Apparently Trump leads by three everywhere
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Asta
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2020, 12:08:16 PM »

Trafalgar sick of +1/+2 so they are deciding to go with more +3.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2020, 12:31:51 PM »

Man I can't wait for these hacks to get banned by 538.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2020, 12:36:35 PM »

Trafalgar really doing a number on our beautiful polling averages today. Sick.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2020, 12:41:04 PM »

Apparently Trump leads by three everywhere

Means he actually is down by at least 3 everywhere.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2020, 12:42:12 PM »

Man I can't wait for these hacks to get banned by 538.

I doubt they will outright ban them. They'll probably slap them a D/D- rating which will make their polls irrelevant.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2020, 12:43:14 PM »

Man I can't wait for these hacks to get banned by 538.

I doubt they will outright ban them. They'll probably slap them a D/D- rating which will make their polls irrelevant.

If evidence can be found to prove Nate’s own suspicions (they manipulate their samples and/or data to get desired results), that might be grounds for a ban.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2020, 12:43:44 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-22

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2020, 12:44:34 PM »

Man I can't wait for these hacks to get banned by 538.

I doubt they will outright ban them. They'll probably slap them a D/D- rating which will make their polls irrelevant.

If evidence can be found to prove Nate’s own suspicions (they manipulate their samples and/or data to get desired results), that might be grounds for a ban.

I thought they admitted to doing that though?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2020, 12:46:51 PM »

Man I can't wait for these hacks to get banned by 538.

I doubt they will outright ban them. They'll probably slap them a D/D- rating which will make their polls irrelevant.

If evidence can be found to prove Nate’s own suspicions (they manipulate their samples and/or data to get desired results), that might be grounds for a ban.

I thought they admitted to doing that though?

Well they admit they have a “social desirability” (i.e. shy Trump) factor but I’m not AWARE of them admitting to outright fixing their results beyond that. Certainly seems likely though.
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Rand
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2020, 12:47:00 PM »

They really really really really REALLY want to strike lightning twice.

Maybe they will, who knows.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2020, 12:52:47 PM »

Can we just have a single Trafalgar containment thread where we can dump all of this garbage?
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ExSky
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2020, 01:03:39 PM »

They really really really really REALLY want to strike lightning twice.

Maybe they will, who knows.

They’re going to need lightning to strike 8 times simultaneously on election night. We have literally voting data that is flagrantly against what trafalgar is pushing.
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2952-0-0
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2020, 01:05:47 PM »

Maybe Trafalgar polls are the equivalent of the Trump campaign running TV ads in the Washington media market?
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Rand
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2020, 01:10:00 PM »

They really really really really REALLY want to strike lightning twice.

Maybe they will, who knows.

They’re going to need lightning to strike 8 times simultaneously on election night. We have literally voting data that is flagrantly against what trafalgar is pushing.

You mean Traflagrantly?
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2020, 01:10:50 PM »

NC and GA and FL are all going for Trump.

It's all about WI, MI, and PA where, admittedly, Biden has structural advantages.  And about AZ where Trump has lesser structural advantages.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2020, 01:11:49 PM »

NC and GA and FL are all going for Trump.

It's all about WI, MI, and PA where, admittedly, Biden has structural advantages.  And about AZ where Trump has lesser structural advantages.

Fuzzy I feel like I never see you outside of USGD and the meta-subforums Tongue
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2020, 01:23:36 PM »

NC and GA and FL are all going for Trump.

It's all about WI, MI, and PA where, admittedly, Biden has structural advantages.  And about AZ where Trump has lesser structural advantages.

Fuzzy I feel like I never see you outside of USGD and the meta-subforums Tongue

I make my rounds.

I'm skeptical of all the polls.  There is a disconnect between people (mostly Republicans) not voting for Trump because of his Trump-ness and the fact that he has many solid accomplishments that one would expect would meet the approval of ordinary Republican and conservative-leaning voters.

Of course, I could be wrong in being "guardedly optimistic" about Trump's re-election.  He may really be headed for a 1980 Carterish drubbing (though not as bad in the Electoral College.  America has long been characterized as a Ceinter-Right country.  We well may have turned the corner to where we are now a Center-Left country.  Given what has occurred over decades in our colleges and universities, this shouldn't be a real shock.

Nonetheless, I do not believe Biden will carry any Southern state outside of VA.  I think NC plus 3 is about where Trump will end up on the plus end.
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Ljube
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2020, 01:24:24 PM »

In 2016, Trafalgar had Trump+5. It finished Trump+4.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2020, 01:31:45 PM »

Everything being the exact same margin is what makes these look so suspect at a glance. Even Rasmussen has a little variety. With Trafalgar, every round is either plus 2 or maybe 3.
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Hammy
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2020, 01:37:26 PM »

No idea what to make of this poll. These are the numbers that occurred here in 2016, but there is no prior election to compare their poll to.  If you count the demographics as more similar to Florida, they might be close, albeit closer to a tie. If you count the demographics as being more similar to Georgia, Biden is probably ahead based on this.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2020, 01:49:59 PM »



Trafalgar should be banned from every average. Obviously fake and now exposed. Shocking that Trump doesn’t actually happen to lead by 3 in every state, I know. Hopefully this trash-fail-garbage “pollster” sinks into the abyss after the election, never to be heard from again. Just like the doomers and deluded here will.
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Hammy
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2020, 02:02:39 PM »



Trafalgar should be banned from every average. Obviously fake and now exposed. Shocking that Trump doesn’t actually happen to lead by 3 in every state, I know. Hopefully this trash-fail-garbage “pollster” sinks into the abyss after the election, never to be heard from again. Just like the doomers and deluded here will.

So did they just throw numbers in there and then somebody realized it didn't add up and took it down to change it hoping nobody noticed?
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