Bromley & Chislehurst by-election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Candidates:

Tories have narrowed down to Bob Neill (leader of the Tories on the GLA) and two "A" list candidates*. Final choice will be announced fairly soon.
No idea for the other parties.

*I should perhaps point out that while accusations of the various "A" list candidates being carpet-baggers etc. are largely valid, Eric Forth himself was a carpet-bagger; he used to be the M.P for the old Mid Worcestershire seat (which sort-of turned into the current Redditch seat) and did the chicken-run down to Bromley in 1997. Interestingly Bromley's most famous M.P (a certain '50's/'60's P.M) was also a carpet-bagger, heading off to Bromley after being heavily beaten in Stockton in '45.

[Rural Radical]

Any idea who the others are ? Any chance of a shock ?

[minionofmidas]

Any idea who the others are ? Any chance of a shock ?

The others don't matter. If the Tories lose this they should pick a new leader now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think other candidates will be picked soon as well... but while both the LibDems and Labour have decent minority votes in part of the constituency (there are a few old estates here and there (Cray West ward, which (just) voted Labour earlier this year is in the seat I think and we didn't do all that badly in Mottingham) while there's a minority LibDem vote in almost all white-collar suburbia... I think they had some councillers here in 1998...) that both votes come from very different people and the fact that the seat has a natural Tory majority, makes an upset about as likely as the Tories winning Blaenau Gwent later this month. Unless a strong Indie-Tory runs.

[Ben.]

 Unless a strong Indie-Tory runs.

Farge is running for UKIP... then again UKIP seem to be a bit of a "busted flush"... I dont know how this seat falls to the LibDems (and their the only party that might take it) but Cameron will be looking for a candidate who fits his image for the Tory party (interestingly he was disaptioned with the the A-list, thinking some candidates to "southern" and lightweight) and at the same time pulls off a hefty win for the party in a strong area he probably hopes for 55%+ (in a by-election that would be very good).

[afleitch]

Bob Neill got it - not quite what many expected, but he has a good record in the Assembly and is a safe bet; I would have expected an embarassing campaign had an A-lister ran.

[Ben.]

I would have expected an embarassing campaign had an A-lister ran.

Indeed... thing is 2/3rds of the A-list a pretty solid the rest are a bit iffy, Iain Dale not being on is understandable, after N.Norfolk in '05 (even though I think he'd be a good parlimentarian) but there are plenty good very hard working candidates who performed well who've been "passed over" for folks who seem frankly lightweight and havent put in much practical effort for the Tories in the past.

But as you say Neill has a solid record and should pull off an equally solid win.     

[Ben.]

The other two candidates where Syed Kamall MEP and Julia Manning (Chair of the Conservative Christian Fellowship) both are actually rather good and do very well on TV and in the media, personally I would have favoured Manning though i think Kamall would have been a better "by-election candidate" and a better campaigner (though i'm basing that on gut feeling more than anything), it's not that Neill isnt a credible and competant candidate rather that he simply isnt very exception though he's by all acounts been a good member of the GLA so he should do well. 

[Bono]

Any idea who the others are ? Any chance of a shock ?

The others don't matter. If the Tories lose this they should pick a new leader now.

*prays for tory defeat*

[Peter]

If the Tories lose this then the answer Michael Portillo should have given in 1997 when asked "Are we seeing the death of the Conservative Party as a viable force in British politics?", was "Yes!"

I don't see how they can do any better than Cameron: Anybody else, whilst probably attractive to the likes of Bono, simply won't sit as well with the electorate (unless Ken Clarke proves that 4th time is indeed a charm).

[Bono]

If the Tories lose this then the answer Michael Portillo should have given in 1997 when asked "Are we seeing the death of the Conservative Party as a viable force in British politics?", was "Yes!"

I don't see how they can do any better than Cameron: Anybody else, whilst probably attractive to the likes of Bono, simply won't sit as well with the electorate (unless Ken Clarke proves that 4th time is indeed a charm).

Clarke is even worse. At least Cameron isn't an europhile.
David Davis was awsome, but I guess the United Kingdom is too ungulfed in New Labour madness to even consider anything else. However, Cameron is going to produce the exact same result the "Conservatives" are going to face September in Sweden: when confronted with a copy and the original, the voters prefer the original.

[Rural Radical]

Who was in the A list?

[Ben.]

Who was in the A list?

Syed Kamall, London MEP, secular muslim and by all acounts a pretty robust and effective pol, also very eurosceptic.




Julia Manning, chair of the Conservative Christian Fellowship i think she ran for a "unwinable" seat last time around and is well regarded, less tested than Kamall but probably my prefered candidate.


Interestingly, despite the hype, Neill was a big supporter of Cameron's during the leadership election, from pretty early on, and is fairly pro-european... he's also a good "fit" for Bromley. Whats more its interesting to note, again despite the hype, that the local association picked two of the three candidates for the final hustings from the A-list, this when lots of local "worthies" (such as Mrs Forth) where seeking the nomination.       

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's a "secular Muslim"?

[Ben.]

What's a "secular Muslim"?

I assume the none "scary" kind In reality i think its short-hand for no beard or prayer robes... not my words i should add.

Indeed Kamal would be my pick to contest Tooting that looks like being very shaky for Labour next time around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I assume the none "scary" kind In reality i think its short-hand for no beard or prayer robes... not my words i should add.

Most Muslims that don't have a big beard and wear robes (and that's most of them) certainly wouldn't describe themselves as "secular Muslims" and it would be wrong to describe them as such.

Thinking about this for a minute, "Secular Muslim" actually sounds quite like "Lapsed Catholic", although he might mean something else.

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Not especially; demographic changes aren't exactly helpful to Labour in the area (and neither are the slight boundary changes) but they aren't really devastating. It'll certainly be treated as a marginal by both sides (even if it isn't really one on paper) but it would certainly be a suprise if it fell (rather like Bradford West last year).
The local election results in Tooting were slightly better than expected actually; although quite suprising at the same time. Local elections in Wandsworth are strange things o/c.

[Ben.]

I assume the none "scary" kind In reality i think its short-hand for no beard or prayer robes... not my words i should add.

Most Muslims that don't have a big beard and wear robes (and that's most of them) certainly wouldn't describe themselves as "secular Muslims" and it would be wrong to describe them as such.

Thinking about this for a minute, "Secular Muslim" actually sounds quite like "Lapsed Catholic", although he might mean something else.

As i said Al "not my words" and the "scary" tag was used somewhat "tong-in-cheek"

As for Tooting, gentrification is spreading into the seat, on top of that I'd expect the Tories to again do better in London than the rest of the country making Tooting look very marginal indeed, though at the same time I'd expect the LibDem vote to go down a little (though last time around there was a swing to the Tories of 4% IIRC).   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As for Tooting, gentrification is spreading into the seat,

True; not as rapidly as happend in Battersea in the '80's though.

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The Tories will do better than average in most of Outer London and also in the Inner West. Tooting more-or-less has elements of both, although things are confused further by the continued good Labour results in that inner-suburban belt south of Wandsworth and Lambeth (it's where a lot of people moved out from Battersea ended up IIRC. Actually it isn't quite true to say south of Lambeth; Streatham South ward is in it) which Tooting *also* has certain elements of (Furzedown ward especially I think).

Oh yes; Manning was the Tory candidate in Bristol East last election. She polled 21% and came third. Bristol East was Tory from it's creation in 1983 until 1992. The two old seats that made up most of it were traditionally Labour (one of which was first Stafford Cripps's and then Tony Benn's seat) although not by as much as Bristol South.

[Ben.]

Oh yes; Manning was the Tory candidate in Bristol East last election. She polled 21% and came third. Bristol East was Tory from it's creation in 1983 until 1992. The two old seats that made up most of it were traditionally Labour (one of which was first Stafford Cripps's and then Tony Benn's seat) although not by as much as Bristol South.

I think its fair to say lots of seats that where Tory from 1983-92 stayed Labour last time around, its hardly a reflection on the local candidate. A seat being competative thirteen years ago doesnt really mean all that much for a contest like 2005 to be honest... indeed plenty of good candidates from all parties lost in 2005.

[minionofmidas]

I assume the none "scary" kind In reality i think its short-hand for no beard or prayer robes... not my words i should add.

Most Muslims that don't have a big beard and wear robes (and that's most of them) certainly wouldn't describe themselves as "secular Muslims" and it would be wrong to describe them as such.

Nor makes it any sense whatsoever to call big-bearded types "scary" even in cheek.

Now, big-bearded types under 35 who you know aren't clerics or training to be clerics... you might have a point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think its fair to say lots of seats that where Tory from 1983-92 stayed Labour last time around, its hardly a reflection on the local candidate. A seat being competative thirteen years ago doesnt really mean all that much for a contest like 2005 to be honest... indeed plenty of good candidates from all parties lost in 2005.

That's true and I wasn't really making any judgements on how good a candidate she was or not (I have no idea). But while Bristol East was Tory in the '80's, it wouldn't have been in any Post War decade before then.
Also worth noting that the Tory machine in Bristol has almost totally collapsed (most of the remaining Tory councillers have there own personal machines o/c) in recent years. The old Bristol West was Tory from the 1870's onwards IIRC (it's Tory-ness was weakend, quite a lot actually, by the expansion of the seat, but they'd have still lost the old seat in 1997. But to the LibDems) and in 1987 they came very close to gaining Bristol *South* (although if Cocks hadn't been deselected this wouldn't have happend, but that's by-the-by...)

[Ben.]

Also worth noting that the Tory machine in Bristol has almost totally collapsed (most of the remaining Tory councillers have there own personal machines o/c) in recent years. The old Bristol West was Tory from the 1870's onwards IIRC (it's Tory-ness was weakend, quite a lot actually, by the expansion of the seat, but they'd have still lost the old seat in 1997. But to the LibDems) and in 1987 they came very close to gaining Bristol *South* (although if Cocks hadn't been deselected this wouldn't have happend, but that's by-the-by...)

Very True... and of course the case in many cities, the LibDem (in Bristol West for example) can now hoover up sufficent right of centre voters and win enougth liberal, white collar workers to win in places like Bristol West... If things continue as they are though there might be a few places where a DC led Tory revival (on any scale) could undermine the LibDems and potentially help Labour (Bristol?, Chesterfeild?). 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bumps for the purposes of the usual dodgy postal vote rumours:

Apparently the samples here have been suprising.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh and there's been some silly row about whether the Tory candidate is legal or not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are rumours that the LibDems have called in extra troops (so to speak) here... anyone know whether that be true or not?