Good post. Just want to add a few of my observations.
General tips:
1. Pace yourself! It's going to be a long day and long night, and the main event doesn't start until the evening hours. If you can manage it around work or school, sleep late or take a nap during the day. Don't stay glued to coverage during the day and burn yourself out early. Take breaks; talk to your family, go for a walk, play with the dog.
There's no point to be online prior to the start of returns from Indiana. 7pm eastern is the EARLIEST you should be online. I normally take the day off for election day. Sleep during the afternoon.
Election night should not be longer than a 5 hour event - 7pm eastern to midnight eastern. Counting always stops at midnight eastern, so there's no point to being up later than that.
It will depend on the election whether the night is long or short. Most election nights are short. 2008 was about an hour or so, 2012 was also about an hour. Enough to have a meal at the pub and go home. 2016 and 2000 were much longer events that went the distance.
2. Don't read too much into anecdotal weather and local turnout reports. They have little or no predictive value. Final turnout reports, OTOH, may (but don't always) provide some useful information, but they’re probably going to be of even less value than usual this year due to the very high amount of early voting.
Weather reports and local turnout are useless.
Early results are actually really predictive if you've been doing your homework. Indiana going so strongly for Trump was an indication as to how the night would go. Even though the result was still really close, we knew from the early returns that he was going to have a good night.
Mail-ins will only have bearing in the states that are closer than 2%, and are unlikely to sway the election.
3. Corollary to (2): try not to read too much into early voting reports. This is an election year like no other, and we just can’t say how that’s going to affect voting patterns. Remember that party registration does not tell you who someone voted for! Anyone who thinks they can make useful predictions from early voting is deluding themselves. (The one possible exception is Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent.)
EV gives us ranges which, when combined with the actual count gives us a good idea as to how the rest of the night will go (within about 5%).
4. Be very skeptical of reports of outrageous incidents, like people being scared away from polling places, unless they're confirmed by a reputable news source. Please DON'T repost them here, on social media, or anywhere else without confirmation.
Most of the news election day is silly. At this point all of the important election news has happened. Nothing from this point on will change the result.
5. Take early exit polls with a grain of salt. They often don't reflect the actual state of the electorate, and are something else that’s going to be even less useful than usual this year.
Great advice. Exit polls can give us a range (within about 5 percent), but won't help us understand close states, and can often be counterproductive in understanding the final result in close states.
6. Remember that early returns often don't hold up, especially if they're mostly from one particular voting method: absentee (mail), early in-person (EIP), or Election Day. We know that absentee is going to be heavily D while Election Day is going to be heavily R; EIP voting is going to be more balanced, and how it breaks will probably depend on location. So if a locality reports its absentee votes first -- which some do -- it’s likely to present a huge D lead that will erode when Election Day votes are reported. The reverse will be true if absentee votes are counted and reported after Election Day votes. NEW: see
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ for state-by-state timing information.
Excellent post with one exception. IPEV tends to favour republicans. I'm not sure how they will be reporting things election night wrt main in ballots.
7. If your side does well, always remember that it could have been better ("Damn, we almost got Rep. Dorque.") If your side does poorly, remember that it could have been worse ("Whew, at least Dorque survived.") It's OK to celebrate or mourn the results, but try not to lash out at others in the process.
Great advice. When Romney lost, I was paid to do an election blog. I warned them that it would not be worth their time. I went to a pub, ordered a cerveza and a lovely enchilada meal. Before I finished my cerveza, Romney had lost. I enjoyed my meal and went home and slept well.
Elections are not everything. The world is a much bigger place than that.
8. Be careful of pronouncements that the results, whatever they are, signify a major change or realignment. Such events are very rare. If there's one consistent long-term trend in American politics, it's that the pendulum eventually tends to swing back again.
Re-aligning elections are a rare, once in a generation thing. Although we are overdue for one. there were realigning elections in 2000, 1980 and in 1964.
9. If you drink or use other mood-altering substances, try to do so in moderation, unless you get to the "drowning your sorrows" stage. Think twice before posting while drunk; you'll probably regret it in the morning.
I would advise against drinking alone on election night - especially if you are heavily invested in the outcome.
a. Please be civil. Most posters here are human beings (there are a few I suspect are bots) and some of them have different views than you do. This doesn't make them vile or your enemy. To paraphrase what Sen. Mitchell famously said to Oliver North: it's possible for someone to be decent and patriotic and still think you're completely wrong.
I see the phrase loving and moral used more often. So I will reword this. It's very possible for someone to be a kind, loving and moral person and still support Trump. The same goes for Biden.
b. OTOH, there are some trolls here, and they're usually easy to identify. The goal of a troll is to stir up a reaction, not to discuss things in good faith. Disagreeing with someone is not trolling; deliberately provoking them is. Please don't respond to the trolls. Just use the Ignore and/or Report buttons. (There's nothing wrong with using Ignore. You don't owe anyone your time to read their stuff. I use it liberally and it's greatly enhanced my Atlas experience.)
c. Try not to clutter up the main result threads with side topics; they're going to be really busy. Please take such discussions to separate threads. Similarly, please don't clutter the main threads with empty quotes, memes, or other responses with negligible content.
Nothing to add here.
d. Don't try to follow everything closely, and don't feel like you have to respond to everything. There's just too much going on, and it's impossible to keep up with everything to the minute. The best strategy is to pick just a few things you'll follow closely, and others that you'll check on less frequently.
Would agree with this. The first 2,3 hours of election night are usually extremely busy, with the peak being an hour into the count to about 2,3 hours into the count. Election night is a very quick sprint for about 3hours, so you are best to be fresh out of the gate at 7.
e. Disable the forum feature that warns on new replies when posting. It's too hard to keep up on fast-moving threads, and this puts a strain on the server. To do this, in your Profile under "Look and Layout Preferences", check the box for "Don't warn on new replies made while posting." If this causes your reply to be a little out of continuity, it's OK.
Nothing to add.
Anyways, my observations. I wish folks luck on Tuesday. I will likely be reporting on the election results as usual.
I hope the atlas enjoys their superbowl too.
