Updating an old post of mine from the 2018 midterms…
(updated 11/1 to add a link to the 538 site with result timing information)
Election Day -- one of the days we election junkies live for -- is just around the corner, so I'd like to share a few of my personal tips for getting the most out of it. (For background, I’ve been following U.S. elections since 1968, and have been on Atlas/Talk Elections since 2008.) Some of these tips are for general election watching and some are Atlas-specific. Feel free to add your own!
General tips:
1. Pace yourself! It's going to be a long day and long night, and the main event doesn't start until the evening hours. If you can manage it around work or school, sleep late or take a nap during the day. Don't stay glued to coverage during the day and burn yourself out early. Take breaks; talk to your family, go for a walk, play with the dog.
2. Don't read too much into anecdotal weather and local turnout reports. They have little or no predictive value. Final turnout reports, OTOH, may (but don't always) provide some useful information, but they’re probably going to be of even less value than usual this year due to the very high amount of early voting.
3. Corollary to (2): try not to read too much into early voting reports. This is an election year like no other, and we just can’t say how that’s going to affect voting patterns. Remember that party registration does not tell you who someone voted for! Anyone who thinks they can make useful predictions from early voting is deluding themselves. (The one possible exception is Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent.)
4. Be very skeptical of reports of outrageous incidents, like people being scared away from polling places, unless they're confirmed by a
reputable news source. Please DON'T repost them here, on social media, or anywhere else without confirmation.
5. Take early exit polls with a grain of salt. They often don't reflect the actual state of the electorate, and are something else that’s going to be even less useful than usual this year.
6. Remember that early returns often don't hold up, especially if they're mostly from one particular voting method: absentee (mail), early in-person (EIP), or Election Day. We know that absentee is going to be heavily D while Election Day is going to be heavily R; EIP voting is going to be more balanced, and how it breaks will probably depend on location. So if a locality reports its absentee votes first -- which some do -- it’s likely to present a huge D lead that will erode when Election Day votes are reported. The reverse will be true if absentee votes are counted and reported after Election Day votes.
NEW: see
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ for state-by-state timing information.
7. If your side does well, always remember that it could have been better ("Damn, we almost got Rep. Dorque.") If your side does poorly, remember that it could have been worse ("Whew, at least Dorque survived.") It's OK to celebrate or mourn the results, but try not to lash out at others in the process.
8. Be careful of pronouncements that the results, whatever they are, signify a major change or realignment. Such events are very rare. If there's one consistent long-term trend in American politics, it's that the pendulum eventually tends to swing back again.
9. If you drink or use other mood-altering substances, try to do so in moderation, unless you get to the "drowning your sorrows" stage. Think twice before posting while drunk; you'll probably regret it in the morning.
And some Talk Elections-specific tips (hopefully the mods will add their advice):
a.
Please be civil. Most posters here are human beings (there are a few I suspect are bots) and some of them have different views than you do. This doesn't make them vile or your enemy. To paraphrase what Sen. Mitchell famously said to Oliver North: it's possible for someone to be decent and patriotic and still think you're completely wrong.
b. OTOH, there
are some trolls here, and they're usually easy to identify. The goal of a troll is to stir up a reaction, not to discuss things in good faith. Disagreeing with someone is not trolling; deliberately provoking them is. Please don't respond to the trolls. Just use the Ignore and/or Report buttons. (There's nothing wrong with using Ignore. You don't owe anyone your time to read their stuff. I use it liberally and it's greatly enhanced my Atlas experience.)
c. Try not to clutter up the main result threads with side topics; they're going to be really busy. Please take such discussions to separate threads. Similarly, please don't clutter the main threads with empty quotes, memes, or other responses with negligible content.
d. Don't try to follow everything closely, and don't feel like you have to respond to everything. There's just too much going on, and it's impossible to keep up with everything to the minute. The best strategy is to pick just a few things you'll follow closely, and others that you'll check on less frequently.
e. Disable the forum feature that warns on new replies when posting. It's too hard to keep up on fast-moving threads, and this puts a strain on the server. To do this, in your Profile under "Look and Layout Preferences", check the box for "Don't warn on new replies made while posting." If this causes your reply to be a little out of continuity, it's OK.
f. Be wary of making overly quick projections or hot takes; it's not a race to see who can do it first. Some people (who shall remain nameless) have been known to jump on early trends to make projections and be embarrassed by the final result. Nobody remembers who was the first to make a correct projection, but everybody remembers who made the wrong ones.
g. Stay cool, be patient, and have fun! The event itself is something we all enjoy, no matter how the results turn out.
