GA, IA, MI - Opinion Insight (R): Biden +4, Biden +2, Biden +9

[Hammy]

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

[Hammy]

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

There really is no rhyme or reason to who is under-polled and why. Bill Clinton underperformed his polls in 1996.

Just stating an observation I've made over two decades of following politics and polling.

[Hammy]

I love how the Landmark poll came out an hour after this one.

Either the race is Biden+4 or Trump +4. No in-between, apparently.

In 10 days, we'll get to see what separates the good pollsters from the mediocre ones

I see the same discussion with computer modeling on weather forums I go on, where you have a split of a storm going one way and another has it going the other. But the answer is not always splitting the difference--some have a better grasp on the environment than others.

Though the Senate numbers certainly call Landmark's result into question.

[Hammy]

I love how the Landmark poll came out an hour after this one.

Either the race is Biden+4 or Trump +4. No in-between, apparently.

In 10 days, we'll get to see what separates the good pollsters from the mediocre ones

I see the same discussion with computer modeling on weather forums I go on, where you have a split of a storm going one way and another has it going the other. But the answer is not always splitting the difference--some have a better grasp on the environment than others.

Though the Senate numbers certainly call Landmark's result into question.

Are you on southernwx?

Storm2k--I follow tropical weather mostly, though I've heard of it.

[Hammy]

Michigan polling routnley overstates Democrats by massive margins.

That's just wrong. MI polling understated Obama's margin in 2012 by ~6 points

Sitting presidents are often under-polled. I've noticed this being the case since 2004.

So your sample size is..... 2?

Not going to get much more than that for something like this unless we start seeing presidents lose reelection on a regular basis.

[Hammy]

Anyone else finds it funny

(1) Biden is polling better in Georgia then Wisconsin and Michigan
(2) I told ya'll this was occurring (like 3 months ago). The +7 was not an outlier.

You spoke way too soon; same poll has Biden up 9 in Michigan.

Also Biden is doing better in the averages of both than Georgia.

Michigan polling overstates Democrats (as does Wisconsin and Minnesota).

GA/MI/WI will vote similar

Dems still over-performed their topline polling average in all three of the rust belt states you mentioned. Where do you get that polls over-estimate them? North Carolina is the only competitive state this is true, what you're saying is demonstrably false.