1968: LBJ vs. Nixon

[Alben Barkley]

Let’s say LBJ doesn’t drop out and wins the 1968 Democratic nomination, either because there are no primaries, he wins the primaries, or they are ignored and he’s nominated at the DNC anyway.

How does he do? On the one hand, he dropped out because he didn’t think he could win due to the backlash he was facing over Vietnam. On the other, going from one of the largest landslides in history to losing in four years would have been quite a shift. LBJ was still a formidable campaigner and politician who would not have at all been afraid to get down in the mud with Nixon. He might have even revealed Nixon’s borderline treasonous interference with the Vietnam peace talks.

I think it may have ended up closer. Humphrey didn’t get a lot of goodwill from anti-LBJ people as he was his VP, but he also wasn’t as charismatic or dominant as LBJ himself. And still it was pretty damn close, so maybe LBJ had a shot after all. I think it certainly would have been one of the most vicious campaigns in history, that’s for sure.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Johnson would have gotten blown out. People forget that Johnson was incredibly unpopular by 1968, and he obviously is going to be harmed more by that than Humphrey was. Not even just with the general public either, there was almost no element of the Democratic coalition Johnson hadn't angered in some way by 1968. On top of that, the turning point of the race was Humphrey moving away from Johnson's Vietnam policy in September/October, and for obvious reasons, Johnson is not going to do that.

[Turbo Flame]

I still think Richard Nixon still comes on top. Yes Johnson was close to a peace deal, but voters were just fed up with the President and wanted change of scenery.

Former Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)\Governor Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 279 EV
President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)\Vice President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 203 EV
Former Governor George Wallace (I-AL)\General Curtis LeMay (I-OH): 56 EV

[Alben Barkley]

Johnson would have gotten blown out. People forget that Johnson was incredibly unpopular by 1968, and he obviously is going to be harmed more by that than Humphrey was. Not even just with the general public either, there was almost no element of the Democratic coalition Johnson hadn't angered in some way by 1968. On top of that, the turning point of the race was Humphrey moving away from Johnson's Vietnam policy in September/October, and for obvious reasons, Johnson is not going to do that.

Gallup polls don’t really agree he was THAT unpopular:

https://historyinpieces.com/research/lbj-presidential-approval-ratings

He still had a positive approval rating at the beginning of 1968, and only briefly ever dropped below 40%. Presidents have won re-election with approval ratings in the mid-40s before. Notably including Harry Truman.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Johnson would have gotten blown out. People forget that Johnson was incredibly unpopular by 1968, and he obviously is going to be harmed more by that than Humphrey was. Not even just with the general public either, there was almost no element of the Democratic coalition Johnson hadn't angered in some way by 1968. On top of that, the turning point of the race was Humphrey moving away from Johnson's Vietnam policy in September/October, and for obvious reasons, Johnson is not going to do that.

Gallup polls don’t really agree he was THAT unpopular:

https://historyinpieces.com/research/lbj-presidential-approval-ratings

He still had a positive approval rating at the beginning of 1968, and only briefly ever dropped below 40%. Presidents have won re-election with approval ratings in the mid-40s before. Notably including Harry Truman.

Hmm, okay, fair, he was more popular than I realized. Still, I think he loses for the reasons I said before.

[President Johnson]

Johnson would have won. He was a master politican and knew in advance that Nixon tried to sabotage the Paris peace talks. He would have leaked the information to public and Nixon would have been damaged enough to get defeated.

Not sure whether Wallace would have still run, but assuming it was a head-to-head matchup:

✓ President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey (D-MN): 325 EV. (50.87%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-NY)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 213 EV. (47.14%)

[Alben Barkley]

Johnson would have won. He was a master politican and knew in advance that Nixon tried to sabotage the Paris peace talks. He would have leaked the information to public and Nixon would have been damaged enough to get defeated.

Not sure whether Wallace would have still run, but assuming it was a head-to-head matchup:

✓ President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey (D-MN): 325 EV. (50.87%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-NY)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 213 EV. (47.14%)

Wallace probably still would have run. And I think LBJ wins Kentucky in this scenario, while Wallace takes most of the Confederate states except Texas, Florida, and Virginia. Not sure about New England. LBJ might have still won Maine.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Nixon gets to 270 the hard way.