WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hoping the dscc endorses Godlewski or someone else so we can avoid this disaster

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Barnes is a hilariously bad candidate, I hope he wins the nomination.

But muh Obama won WI in 2012!!! /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sen. Larson is out and has endorsed Barnes.

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1422553810539528198?s=20

Is he insane? Barnes is about as electable as Martha Coakley

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

A lot of the "Barnes can't win" commentary seems to rooted in the same place where the "Lamb is the only one who can win PA" commentary is; complete guesses and gut feelings. There is absolutely no hard evidence that Barnes cannot win, especially against an insurrectionist and certified loon like Ron Johnson. I think a lot of folks around here are just giving into this "black progressives cannot win WWC-dominated electorates" mentality that has stymied genuinely good candidates. "Electability" arguments this far out, and especially in a primary, are lame. It's a cyclical argument of "they can't win because they can't win."

It really isn't. For one I don't support Lamb I think he's uninspiring and I don't want another Sinema. Progressives can win but they have to be the right type. Fetrerman for example looks like a wwc voter and could really relate to them for example.
2. Barnes being black is not why I think  he would be a bad candidate.. Barnes made comments about the Kenosha shooting that were viewed as having incited the riots. The ads write themselves.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

What about Nelson? Does he have scandals too? He looks the best to me

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

What about Nelson? Does he have scandals too? He looks the best to me

Nelson’s problem is that he can’t win anything outside of his own county.  He ran for WI-8 in 2016, only to lose by more than 20 points, losing his home county and even underperforming Hillary.  He also ran for LG in 2010 and lost.

I mean is that really worse then a person who could be painted as a DC insider or someone who didn't pay taxes and lied about his college degree

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yall sound like the people saying Cunninghams scandal wouldn't matter. Johnson has always been quite conservative and outspoken but it wasn't until recently(2020ish) that he really started putting his foot in his mouth. I highly doubt these comments are going to play well in a swing state. (Of course, if Barnes is the nominee it doesn't really matter)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yall sound like the people saying Cunninghams scandal wouldn't matter. Johnson has always been quite conservative and outspoken but it wasn't until recently(2020ish) that he really started putting his foot in his mouth. I highly doubt these comments are going to play well in a swing state. (Of course, if Barnes is the nominee it doesn't really matter)

It didn't.

Biden couldn't generate the enthusiasm needed to flip the state, which in turn would've propelled him over, or even given him the goodwill to outrun him.

You could've had  Bowl of Frosted Flakes (D) vs. Punch in the Nose (R) in this race, and as long as Biden couldn't win the entire vote by at least 6, the Punch in the Nose was going to win no matter what.

I actually agree. Cunningham wasn't winning if Biden wasn't either, and vice-versa.

Tillis got less votes than Trump literally everywhere. Heck, Paul Newby who won by .0 got more votes than Tillis. The only reason Cunningham underperformed Biden is because people voted third party who couldn't stomach voting for Tillis, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Cunningham because of the scandal.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Godlewski gets an endorsement:

https://twitter.com/billglauber/status/1450879033470853133?s=21

Looks like she won't be getting the critical BRTD endorsement!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Johnson is polarizing enough he would probably only win by mid single digits, but I could see Barnes losing by high single digits to a generic r

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No one cares about ssm. If he loses it will be because of ss statements and election denialism

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

People don't care about Dobbs either! They likely support some restrictions on abortion. What they can't relate to is somebody like Dixon pushing an extreme position about it, opposing abortion rights for 14 year old rape/incest victims . Or JD Vance stating that it is an "inconvenience". Republicans overreached is what happened.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Opposing extremely popular things is bad actually.

It's not extremely popular, people simply don't care about it anymore. Once it was legalized, the people who opposed it simply accepted it. They might not love the idea of two same sex people getting married, but it doesn't bother them enough to actually waste time and energy getting upset about it

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MJS ran a long piece this morning on Barnes's Twitter account, including his comments that Donald Trump is a "Russian spy" and Steve Scalise was "taking one for the team" in his attempted assassination: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2022/09/29/mandela-barnes-us-senate-candidate-vs-ron-johnson-2022-election-on-twitter-donald-trump-russian-spy/10440513002/

Expect at least some of this to make its way into another effective Johnson attack ad.

Forumlurker is Mandela Barnes confirmed /s
I mean, I don't think the former will alienate people that he hasn't already alienated before. But yeah the latter is just pure idiocy. How did the WI Dems not vet this guy?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think most politicos would take an 8-point come-from-behind win, even if it means DC media will write mean things about them when they die.

Kinda surprised they have the guts to go with this theme. Usually it’s just Democrats "going for the jugular" (and they love to do this) while Republicans unilaterally surrender—only to posthumuously wonder why they didn’t win, of course. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if they only changed it from "Mandela Barnes scares me" to "Mandela Barnes doesn’t have the judgment" at the last minute.

Also looking forward to seeing just how many potentially promising political careers social media will end in the coming decades.

Funnily enough Republicans are going for the jugular the most in Ohio of all places...they accused Ryan of giving money to the Boston marathon bomber

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I see, Republicans are employing the full "Democrats are pro-murderer" line here that Oz is also spouting in PA.

At some point these ads are going to get so ridiculous that voters will start tuning out. You can't honestly call your opponents "pro criminal" and "pro murderer" and be taken 100% seriously outside of hardcore partisans.

I do think you can go too over the top(like the marathon bomber ad in Ohio) but if the voters hear something often enough, they'll believe it. Especially if the other candidate doesn't respond forcefully against the attacks.(Idk what Barnes is doing in response to ads like this, but Fetterman has been disappointing in that regard)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So, with the quality of candidates in PA and GA, it's not particularly surprising that they were where scandals have popped up. But man, I wish we could get something snappy like that on Johnson.

We did have RoJo saying that January 6th wasn't an armed insurrection this morning, but that's not going to do him much damage, since he's arguing based on semantics.

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1577298646550421504

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Johnson is overrated. He will win by mid single digits but given all of Barnes scandals, a generic r would blow the latter out of the water

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

We let this moron win a primary unopposed??
https://twitter.com/kfile/status/1578451677417394176?s=21&t=3a-WdvftoqKnKHsC...

There were other people running but they would have lost too. Godlewski would be easy to portray as a DC insider. Lasry was just lol. Nelson was the one I would have supported but he was not great he's just better than the others

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

We let this moron win a primary unopposed??
https://twitter.com/kfile/status/1578451677417394176?s=21&t=3a-WdvftoqKnKHsC...

Without fail, whenever a progressive wins a primary fair and square all the #votebluenomatterwho come out to do Fox News' job for them. Never once appreciating the irony. Anyway he's not a "moron." Perhaps he just has convictions? I don't know why those would offend you as a Democrat, but anywho...

That's certainly not gonna be what wins the election for Mandela bc he's losing immigration-minded voters regardless of what happens. The crime thing seems to be more effective and relevant anyway

As a fellow progressive, sometimes you have to take the L. Neither of these policies are popular, period

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Johnson is a good example of someone who runs a good campaign but is a flawed candidate. In 2016, while he was outspoken and conservative, he was more articulate and intelligent sounding. Now he says all these crazy comments. He's certainly crafty and good at attacking his opponents weaknesses and making them unpalatable, but I still think a more "sane" republican who employed this strategy in this race would be demolishing Barnes

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Here's the thing gus, Johnson had the same Jan 6/election truthwr problems that other Republicans this cycle had, he has a history of making outrageous remarks and he is extremely conservative. That's why Barnes was able to keep it as close as it was. But you can't deny that Barnes scandals didn't play a role in him losing.