WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Drew]

Sarah Godlewski is my preferred choice at this time. Tom Nelson has lost too many races for me to take him seriously and Alex Lasry hasn't lived in Wisconsin long enough to not be labeled a carpetbagger. Plus he has quotes about Milwaukee and Wisconsin that would be painful during a campaign.

Pretty much this, though I would consider Barnes if he enters.  As far as other potential candidates go, Kaul could be a solid candidate too, but we need him to hold the AG seat.  Also, I’m not convinced that Ron Kind would get the turnout from Milwaukee and Madison that he would need to win.  He doesn’t seem like a particularly great fit for either of the two Dem base areas, considering his record on gun issues for example.

[Drew]

Johnson is unpopular in Wisconsin; he wanted to discount the election results in his own state. He's supported overturning election results and misled the people of WI on COVID19. I personally want Johnson to get renominated in 2022 as I see a race with Johnson as the GOP nominee as the most likely scenario where the seat flips blue. If the GOP nominates someone more mainstream, like Mike Gallagher, they will almost certainly win the seat. It's not a question of what I think of Johnson (I strongly dislike him) - but I'm quite sure that opposing the election results in his own states won't buy him the votes he needs to win. If he does win, so can any other Republican (and Johnson will likely win by a smaller amount), and if he does lose (which would likely be by a narrow margin), it would be highly impressive, given that it is a Democratic gain in a swing state in a good GOP year, and something Johnson could accomplish. If he follows his current trajectory and wins the GOP nomination, and the Democrats nominate a strong candidate, like Ron Kind, Democrats have their best shot at flipping their seat. If the GOP nominates someone mainstream and uncontroversial, like Representative Gallagher, then they'll almost certainly win (and if they do lose, then Johnson would certainly have lost as well). Because Johnson opposing WI's election results probably costs him more votes (from suburban moderates in the WOW counties) than it wins him; while Gallagher would likely keep the WOW counties solid and possibly even expand their margin from Trump's in 2020.

Aside from the fact that I question Kind’s appeal as a Senate candidate (explained in an earlier post), it’s sounding like he will be running again for his House seat.  Today, I received a fundraising email from the WisDems with Kind writing the email.  Here’s an excerpt:

After 2020, it’s more apparent than ever that the road to keeping a Democratic House majority runs right through my district.

We’re not the only ones who know that. As Republicans gear up for 2022 by suppressing the vote, WisDems is all-in to win the 3rd Congressional District and defeat the Republican extremists who want to take away our freedom to vote.

That’s why I’m counting on you to chip in to help send me back to Congress in 2022. If we win in 2022, that means protecting the right to vote, passing more of President Biden’s initiatives, and getting things done for Wisconsinites.

Though the term “Congress” in the bolded part is a bit vague as it could imply Senate, the surrounding context makes it sound like he’s going for his House seat again.

[Drew]

Johnson fundraising update:

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1415797732158148617?s=21

[Drew]

Add Dane County executive Joe Parisi to Barnes’ list of endorsements.

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/dane-county-executive-joe-parisi-endorses-mandela-barnes-for-senate/article_a448d047-595d-5e80-a090-5eed8528665e.html

[Drew]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

What about Nelson? Does he have scandals too? He looks the best to me

Nelson’s problem is that he can’t win anything outside of his own county.  He ran for WI-8 in 2016, only to lose by more than 20 points, losing his home county and even underperforming Hillary.  He also ran for LG in 2010 and lost.

[Drew]

Barnes internal poll shows him as the preferred candidate among primary voters w/37% , compared with single digit percentages for other candidates.  The poll suggests much higher name recognition and favorability as well.  Huge grain of salt, of course, especially with 38% undecided.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/571297-internal-poll-shows-barnes-with-29-point-lead-over-democratic-field-in?fbclid=IwAR0Fnu89Ko6A-AZJm1-gGmxjzIhL1hvrv0aKbxdVSy9HMSYeVu1Ee90Tf7I

On a side note, I got a campaign voicemail from Tom Nelson himself today.

[Drew]

Godlewski gets an endorsement:

https://twitter.com/billglauber/status/1450879033470853133?s=21

[Drew]

I really don’t buy that Gallagher would outperform Johnson in this race solely because he’s (ostensibly) more 'moderate' — the guy is not tested statewide, seems way too polished in a state that loves its "authentic" elected officials, and has no real distinguishable brand. Johnson's ability to turn every issue (even inflation, deficits, etc.) into a culture-war clash has a record of selling well even in WOW and the Green Bay area (can we dispel with this notion that this kind of messaging only works in rural areas? many posters seem to be unaware of how Johnson actually ran in 2010 and in which parts of the state he really crushed Feingold), and there’s obviously no doubt that he can supercharge rural/small-town turnout for the GOP. Democrats are also somewhat likely to make several strategic mistakes running against him in particular, like recycling the anti-Trump/insurrectionist playbook (did not work for McAuliffe) or running a gazillion ads painting Johnson as an "extremist" or "radical Republican" (something every voter already knows) while doing nothing to dismantle his perceived "authenticity" (same mistake Republicans make when they run against "socialist" Baldwin).

Either way, Republicans aren’t losing this race in a Republican wave environment. Likely R with Johnson or Gallagher.

That logic is just what was plausible for Bill Nelson in 2018 too. I mean it WAS a Dem environment supposedly

I highly doubt Barnes or Nelson will be quite so tactically haphazard like Feingold was [moreso in 2010].

What did Feingold do that was tactically haphazard? (I'm legit asking, hadn't heard that before.)

I believe he refused to run a negative ad in 2010, for one thing.

[Drew]

I just saw an anti-Johnson ad during halftime of the SF-DAL game.  It was on Madison TV, not sure if it was the whole state or just here.  It was from a Dem-aligned PAC and talking points painted him as a member of the Washington Swamp, he broke his term-limit promise, and pushed for a tax loophole as his net worth skyrocketed while in office.

[Drew]

Per an email I received from the WisDems today, the party has officially endorsed Barnes.