WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[doopy pants]

Lol the other Dems dropped out for this guy?

https://twitter.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1386470582003408900

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 52/48 Senate and we have a chance in OH and NC too, Shapiro and Evers are surging and Sisolak

[doopy pants]

Obama is really angry here. will it work?

And btw, who are Kyle Kulinski's "kids" with Krystal Ball? Isn't she still married?

[US Politics Fanatic]

Insulting Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin is not smart at all. Insulting Romney Clinton voters would be less stupid but I know that, unfortunately, many democrats prefer the laters to the formers.

[SnowLabrador]

Insulting Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin is not smart at all. Insulting Romney Clinton voters would be less stupid but I know that, unfortunately, many democrats prefer the laters to the formers.

Obama-Trump voters aren't coming back. Biden tried, HARD, to court them in 2020. Most of them are full-on Q now.

[wbrocks67]

That video of Obama eviscerating Johnson got like 15M views on social media. Twitter is not real life, but still notable.

[It’s so Joever]

That video of Obama eviscerating Johnson got like 15M views on social media. Twitter is not real life, but still notable.

I got 3 million views on a TikTok video in July, am I now legally a Senator?

[DaleCooper]

That video of Obama eviscerating Johnson got like 15M views on social media. Twitter is not real life, but still notable.

I got 3 million views on a TikTok video in July, am I now legally a Senator?

TikTok is just telling you that you got 3 million views to trick you into continuing to give them your private information.

[Senator Incitatus]

Insulting Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin is not smart at all. Insulting Romney Clinton voters would be less stupid but I know that, unfortunately, many democrats prefer the laters to the formers.

Obama-Trump voters aren't coming back. Biden tried, HARD, to court them in 2020. Most of them are full-on Q now.

Biden's win can be attributed entirely to his improvements with white men.

[TheSaint250]

Twitter is not real life

[It’s so Joever]

That video of Obama eviscerating Johnson got like 15M views on social media. Twitter is not real life, but still notable.

I got 3 million views on a TikTok video in July, am I now legally a Senator?

TikTok is just telling you that you got 3 million views to trick you into continuing to give them your private information.

Oh cope.

[South Dakota Democrat]

That video of Obama eviscerating Johnson got like 15M views on social media. Twitter is not real life, but still notable.

I got 3 million views on a TikTok video in July, am I now legally a Senator?

Yes.

[doopy pants]

Insulting Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin is not smart at all. Insulting Romney Clinton voters would be less stupid but I know that, unfortunately, many democrats prefer the laters to the formers.

Obama-Trump voters aren't coming back. Biden tried, HARD, to court them in 2020. Most of them are full-on Q now.

Some of them came back for Tammy Baldwin, Debbie Stabenow, Sherrod Brown, and Bob Casey in 2018.

[Orwell]

Insulting Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin is not smart at all. Insulting Romney Clinton voters would be less stupid but I know that, unfortunately, many democrats prefer the laters to the formers.

Obama-Trump voters aren't coming back. Biden tried, HARD, to court them in 2020. Most of them are full-on Q now.

Some of them came back for Tammy Baldwin, Debbie Stabenow, Sherrod Brown, and Bob Casey in 2018.

And these same voters are voting for Michaels and Johnson

[DaleCooper]

That video of Obama eviscerating Johnson got like 15M views on social media. Twitter is not real life, but still notable.

I got 3 million views on a TikTok video in July, am I now legally a Senator?

TikTok is just telling you that you got 3 million views to trick you into continuing to give them your private information.

Oh cope.

With what? Not having a TikTok account?

[DaleCooper]

Insulting Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin is not smart at all. Insulting Romney Clinton voters would be less stupid but I know that, unfortunately, many democrats prefer the laters to the formers.

Obama-Trump voters aren't coming back. Biden tried, HARD, to court them in 2020. Most of them are full-on Q now.

Yep, let's not even try to win over more voters. Let's just hope to win by 20k in three swing states every four years. That'll be great for the country.

[AnOdyssey]

Insulting Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin is not smart at all. Insulting Romney Clinton voters would be less stupid but I know that, unfortunately, many democrats prefer the laters to the formers.

Obama-Trump voters aren't coming back. Biden tried, HARD, to court them in 2020. Most of them are full-on Q now.

Nah, I do not think so besides If that is the case, then this country is absolutely SCREWED

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is leading Horray Horray I told users stop Dooming on Barnes , he and Fetterman are LT Govs and Ryan is Rep, Vance, Oz and Budd aren't even office holders

I can see some splits in Gov and Sen races AZ, NV, GA and OH

Obviously, Rs win those small state Govs but Ds win the Sen races

[Devils30]

How fun would it be if Marquette threw in a Barnes +2 poll tomorrow and send Twitter into a frenzy on all ends.

[redjohn]

How fun would it be if Marquette threw in a Barnes +2 poll tomorrow and send Twitter into a frenzy on all ends.

Well, this didn't happen. I'm moving WI-Sen to safe R (from likely R for most of the year). The Republican machine is out in full force this year, taking advantage of Biden's poor job performance and the usual midterms backlash against the incumbent party. There's no chance Barnes walks away with this race. My main question at this point is how different the map looks from 2016. Here are my predicted county flips from 2016 (all D to R), from most likely to least likely:

- Richland (Safe R)
- Lafayette (Safe R)
- Vernon (Safe R)
- Columbia (Likely R)
- Sauk (Likely R)
- Portage (Likely R)
- Green (Lean R)

[walleye26]

How fun would it be if Marquette threw in a Barnes +2 poll tomorrow and send Twitter into a frenzy on all ends.

Well, this didn't happen. I'm moving WI-Sen to safe R (from likely R for most of the year). The Republican machine is out in full force this year, taking advantage of Biden's poor job performance and the usual midterms backlash against the incumbent party. There's no chance Barnes walks away with this race. My main question at this point is how different the map looks from 2016. Here are my predicted county flips from 2016 (all D to R), from most likely to least likely:

- Richland (Safe R)
- Lafayette (Safe R)
- Vernon (Safe R)
- Columbia (Likely R)
- Sauk (Likely R)
- Portage (Likely R)
- Green (Lean R)

Uh, Green, Sauk and Columbia are not Likely R. They are all Toss up. Lots of outward Dane County spillover is present there. Columbia county is actually a pretty good indicator statewide, for state level races like Gov it’s a bit bluer than the state as a whole, for federal races a bit redder. Considering Trump only won Columbia by 500ish votes out of 33,000+, it’s very much competitive.

I would say Portage and Sauk are Tilt D/Tossup. The wild card in Portage is Turnout from the college. I would think young kids might get fired up about abortion, and Point is a pretty liberal campus. 

Don’t get me wrong, Columbia could be won by Johnson but no way it’s likely.

I do agree with Lafayette, Richland, and Vernon though. Those all would seem to be places RonJon could flip, and easily.

[2016]

COOK has seen enough, moves WI-SEN to Leans Republican.

[MarkD]

What's going wrong with Barnes's campaign? Does he have baggage or skeletons in his closet?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Things have been relatively quiet the last few weeks generally which is interesting. This race def seems Lean R given the nature of the year, but considering EV numbers actually look pretty good for Dems compared to a lot of places, I feel like it can't be completely written off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not Kean R it's a Tossup and always has been a Tossup