WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes and Obama ran white white candidates in WI Barnes ran with Evers in 2018 and got elected LT Gov and Obama ran with Biden in 2008/12 so Barnes running solo is different than running in IL,MI, PA, NC or GA as we see Demings is having the same problem as Barnes, that's the reason why Barnes is underpolling but it's only 4 points how many pts did Pat Ryan come back from in blue state NY 8, clearly, Beto down by 8 is totally different in red TX than being down by 4 in blue WI, we are in early voting season we are gonna win WI

Evers is tied with Michels so that should help Barnes and PPP just POLL this race and they had it tied

Coincidence, Vance is supposed to be up by 8 he isn't, now Don Jr is running to Vance rescue but Ryan is not down by 8 pts he has a chance due to early vote too

[Senator Incitatus]

Not sure if Willie Horton campaigns is what you want to define this race, but I'm in IDGAF mode as far as politics is concerned. Hell, I'd probably do the same thing.

I think most politicos would take an 8-point come-from-behind win, even if it means DC media will write mean things about them when they die.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Not sure if Willie Horton campaigns is what you want to define this race, but I'm in IDGAF mode as far as politics is concerned. Hell, I'd probably do the same thing.

I think most politicos would take an 8-point come-from-behind win, even if it means DC media will write mean things about them when they die.

True. If I had a black opponent, I'd be forced to do what's necessary. Respectability politics was already discarded long ago.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MJS ran a long piece this morning on Barnes's Twitter account, including his comments that Donald Trump is a "Russian spy" and Steve Scalise was "taking one for the team" in his attempted assassination: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2022/09/29/mandela-barnes-us-senate-candidate-vs-ron-johnson-2022-election-on-twitter-donald-trump-russian-spy/10440513002/

Expect at least some of this to make its way into another effective Johnson attack ad.

Forumlurker is Mandela Barnes confirmed /s
I mean, I don't think the former will alienate people that he hasn't already alienated before. But yeah the latter is just pure idiocy. How did the WI Dems not vet this guy?

[MT Treasurer]

I think most politicos would take an 8-point come-from-behind win, even if it means DC media will write mean things about them when they die.

Kinda surprised they have the guts to go with this theme. Usually it’s just Democrats "going for the jugular" (and they love to do this) while Republicans unilaterally surrender—only to posthumuously wonder why they didn’t win, of course. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if they only changed it from "Mandela Barnes scares me" to "Mandela Barnes doesn’t have the judgment" at the last minute.

Also looking forward to seeing just how many potentially promising political careers social media will end in the coming decades.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think most politicos would take an 8-point come-from-behind win, even if it means DC media will write mean things about them when they die.

Kinda surprised they have the guts to go with this theme. Usually it’s just Democrats "going for the jugular" (and they love to do this) while Republicans unilaterally surrender—only to posthumuously wonder why they didn’t win, of course. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if they only changed it from "Mandela Barnes scares me" to "Mandela Barnes doesn’t have the judgment" at the last minute.

Also looking forward to seeing just how many potentially promising political careers social media will end in the coming decades.

Funnily enough Republicans are going for the jugular the most in Ohio of all places...they accused Ryan of giving money to the Boston marathon bomber

[Unelectable Bystander]

MJS ran a long piece this morning on Barnes's Twitter account, including his comments that Donald Trump is a "Russian spy" and Steve Scalise was "taking one for the team" in his attempted assassination: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2022/09/29/mandela-barnes-us-senate-candidate-vs-ron-johnson-2022-election-on-twitter-donald-trump-russian-spy/10440513002/

Expect at least some of this to make its way into another effective Johnson attack ad.

I’m just gonna say this right now, and this should’ve been obvious from the start.

This race is over.

Johnson is going absolutely medieval (or 1988, at minimum) on Barnes on television. Here's the latest:

https://twitter.com/TomCottonAR/status/1575868532646367232

I find it to be very distasteful to re-visit tragedy for political gain. With that being said, it’s odd that people were expecting a Barnes win to include dwindling suburban numbers for Johnson when Waukesha city is likely to trend hard right.

As for the weird tweets, those are just the tip of the iceberg. They also mentioned his dislike of George Washington (bizarre, but probably a nothing burger if not for the fact that Johnson openly celebrates Washington for his “humility”. This gives Johnson a unique opportunity to stress his outsider image while calling Barnes too woke) and calling for president AOC.

The bottom may be falling out on this race.

[Senator Incitatus]

I think the Barnes tweets are mostly nothing except the Scalise one, which definitely concedes any moral high ground when Johnson cites Waukesha/Kenosha for political points.

Then again, older voters might not appreciate the less serious tone of social media. Older Republicans consistently cited Twitter as their strongest criticism of Trump (and his ban has been a major factor in his post-presidency polling bounce).

[wbrocks67]

I see, Republicans are employing the full "Democrats are pro-murderer" line here that Oz is also spouting in PA.

At some point these ads are going to get so ridiculous that voters will start tuning out. You can't honestly call your opponents "pro criminal" and "pro murderer" and be taken 100% seriously outside of hardcore partisans.

[It’s so Joever]

I see, Republicans are employing the full "Democrats are pro-murderer" line here that Oz is also spouting in PA.

At some point these ads are going to get so ridiculous that voters will start tuning out. You can't honestly call your opponents "pro criminal" and "pro murderer" and be taken 100% seriously outside of hardcore partisans.

Everything is always good for my side is your logic AGAIN.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I see, Republicans are employing the full "Democrats are pro-murderer" line here that Oz is also spouting in PA.

At some point these ads are going to get so ridiculous that voters will start tuning out. You can't honestly call your opponents "pro criminal" and "pro murderer" and be taken 100% seriously outside of hardcore partisans.

I do think you can go too over the top(like the marathon bomber ad in Ohio) but if the voters hear something often enough, they'll believe it. Especially if the other candidate doesn't respond forcefully against the attacks.(Idk what Barnes is doing in response to ads like this, but Fetterman has been disappointing in that regard)

[darklordoftech]

MJS ran a long piece this morning on Barnes's Twitter account, including his comments that Donald Trump is a "Russian spy" and Steve Scalise was "taking one for the team" in his attempted assassination: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2022/09/29/mandela-barnes-us-senate-candidate-vs-ron-johnson-2022-election-on-twitter-donald-trump-russian-spy/10440513002/

Expect at least some of this to make its way into another effective Johnson attack ad.

Forumlurker is Mandela Barnes confirmed /s
I mean, I don't think the former will alienate people that he hasn't already alienated before. But yeah the latter is just pure idiocy. How did the WI Dems not vet this guy?

I don’t see how calling Trump a Russian spy would hurt him and how many people care what someone thinks of Washington?

[walleye26]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

Yeah Barnes is so behind the 8 ball he is only down 2 lol gimme a break

Users really think 2 pts is a done deal

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

This never seemed like it was going to be the decisive seat but could easily have been seat 51 or 52 for Dems so just throwing it away seems silly. My main theory is after his 2016 upset, Dems are very hesitant to spend on this race again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

This never seemed like it was going to be the decisive seat but could easily have been seat 51 or 52 for Dems so just throwing it away seems silly. My main theory is after his 2016 upset, Dems are very hesitant to spend on this race again

Lol Barnes said he's gonna win and we haven't had an EDay yet, plse wait for the results , you have AZ, GA, PA wrong Warning, Kelly and Fetterman are gonna Barnes and CCM are gonna win 2 pts is nothing

This is Wally we're talking about not wbrooks

[kwabbit]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

This never seemed like it was going to be the decisive seat but could easily have been seat 51 or 52 for Dems so just throwing it away seems silly. My main theory is after his 2016 upset, Dems are very hesitant to spend on this race again

It's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If they're reluctant to spend to support Barnes, then he'll struggle, so they can say "he was always going to lose no matter what, good thing we didn't spend on him".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Johnson, Vance, Laxalt or Lee were so strong they would be leading outside the margin of error like Rubio he is now leading Dings 51/46 that means they are on the verge of losing including Budd whom is tied with Beasley as U said Rs need at least a 5 pt lead consistent not just in TRAFALGAR or Emerson polls in order to withstand D Early Voting which is underway, and D's have Blk and Brown vote to fall back on to get them over, Rs don't they have white men to put them over, Pat Ryan came back from 8 pts and won by 3 that's a 5 pt lead for Molinar

Obviously, Johnson isn't that strong he only has managed a 4 pt lead the max over Barnes and now it's down to two, plse stop declaring winners before we vote, that's why we have prediction, put it on your map, but if you make an R nut map you can't update your map after EDay , Fetterman has lead at least by 10 pts and so has Lee over McMillin but McMillan can still win

Johnson and Laxalt 3/4oys that's MOE their max LEADS

[walleye26]

The thing is Wisconsin is such as close state the fact that they haven’t thrown a lot of money into a Biden-won state is bafflingly stupid.

[wbrocks67]

The thing is Wisconsin is such as close state the fact that they haven’t thrown a lot of money into a Biden-won state is bafflingly stupid.

It's odd; because GOP is vastly outspending Dems/Barnes but Dems are still putting up nearly $20M in outside spending here. But a similar situation like PA, where you're like, where are the ads? Where is this money going because I don't see anything up?

one of the most frustrating aspects of this cycle has been Dem outside groups blatantly letting GOP ones outspend them. Dem candidates have more money themselves, but it's not a huge advantage when the GOP is outspending you by $12M in a state like WI and PA with the PACs.

[BG-NY]

I see, Republicans are employing the full "Democrats are pro-murderer" line here that Oz is also spouting in PA.

At some point these ads are going to get so ridiculous that voters will start tuning out. You can't honestly call your opponents "pro criminal" and "pro murderer" and be taken 100% seriously outside of hardcore partisans.

Everything is always good for my side is your logic AGAIN.

While WB is a good kid who means well, s/he still has a lot to learn about the world. His nonsense has no place at the adults’ table.

[henster]

Why the heck did everyone drop out in the primary towards the end and endorsed Barnes? There were even some polls of Lasry closing in on him and he just gave up… This as big as a recruiting failure for Dems as AZ is for the GOP.

[SnowLabrador]

Why the heck did everyone drop out in the primary towards the end and endorsed Barnes? There were even some polls of Lasry closing in on him and he just gave up… This as big as a recruiting failure for Dems as AZ is for the GOP.

Lasry was a far worse candidate.

[new_patomic]

Some interesting ads during the Wisconsin-Illinois game which I assume most Wisconsin fans turned off in the 2nd half.

The Republican ad was that Barnes is a pro-abolishment radical who wants to put 10,000 criminals on the street.

The Barnes ad was him doing grocery shopping talking about prices.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

This never seemed like it was going to be the decisive seat but could easily have been seat 51 or 52 for Dems so just throwing it away seems silly. My main theory is after his 2016 upset, Dems are very hesitant to spend on this race again

51 and 52 are the decisive seats given who 49 and 50 are