WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Brittain33]

I have a feeling that any vote Johnson might have gotten for supporting SSM, is forever lost to him because of Dobbs, so he may as well stick with his base.

[GALeftist]

No one cares about ssm. If he loses it will be because of ss statements and election denialism

If Roe/Dobbs are at all predictive I'd bet most people care far more about gay marriage than election denialism.

[wesmoorenerd]

No one cares about ssm. If he loses it will be because of ss statements and election denialism

Just like nobody cared about Dobbs, right? SSM might be even more popular.

[Xing]

He’s not trying to lose, he’s appealing to his base. The question is whether or not his base is enough. If it’s a Republican-leaning year, it very likely will be. If it’s more of a neutral year, this strategy is definitely a gamble.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

People don't care about Dobbs either! They likely support some restrictions on abortion. What they can't relate to is somebody like Dixon pushing an extreme position about it, opposing abortion rights for 14 year old rape/incest victims . Or JD Vance stating that it is an "inconvenience". Republicans overreached is what happened.

[new_patomic]

Opposing extremely popular things is bad actually.

[wbrocks67]

He’s not trying to lose, he’s appealing to his base. The question is whether or not his base is enough. If it’s a Republican-leaning year, it very likely will be. If it’s more of a neutral year, this strategy is definitely a gamble.

This is a terrible take, a sizeable portion of even the GOP is okay with same sex marriage. This is not a "base" issue. Not to mention, this is totally against all Democrats and easily a majority of Independents. People trying to spin this is just delusional.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Opposing extremely popular things is bad actually.

It's not extremely popular, people simply don't care about it anymore. Once it was legalized, the people who opposed it simply accepted it. They might not love the idea of two same sex people getting married, but it doesn't bother them enough to actually waste time and energy getting upset about it

[new_patomic]

Opposing extremely popular things is bad actually.

It's not extremely popular, people simply don't care about it anymore. Once it was legalized, the people who opposed it simply accepted it. They might not love the idea of two same sex people getting married, but it doesn't bother them enough to actually waste time and energy getting upset about it

Some 70 percent of people are supportive of same sex marriage nationally these days which I imagine is likely higher in an upper Midwest state like Wisconsin. These folks tend not to be the evangelical sort.

With social issues under the microscope now in a way that disadvantages Republicans, and with Johnson in particular being seen as out of step or even as extreme by the electorate, it really isn't a stretch to suggest officially opposing something in 2022 that the vast majority of people see as common sense is, well, bad.

[Holmes]

Same-sex marriage may be a more popular issue than abortion, but abortion is a much more important issue this election. So candidates' positions on abortion carry more weight than their positions on same-sex marriage.

[Xing]

He’s not trying to lose, he’s appealing to his base. The question is whether or not his base is enough. If it’s a Republican-leaning year, it very likely will be. If it’s more of a neutral year, this strategy is definitely a gamble.

This is a terrible take, a sizeable portion of even the GOP is okay with same sex marriage. This is not a "base" issue. Not to mention, this is totally against all Democrats and easily a majority of Independents. People trying to spin this is just delusional.

By saying his “base”, I mean the most stalwart Republicans, some of whom might not be the most reliable voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

People don't care about Dobbs either! They likely support some restrictions on abortion. What they can't relate to is somebody like Dixon pushing an extreme position about it, opposing abortion rights for 14 year old rape/incest victims . Or JD Vance stating that it is an "inconvenience". Republicans overreached is what happened.

"People don't care about Dobbs...except they do care about Dobbs" is what this post basically says.

What you're saying what may not be harmful is if John Roberts' position prevailed allowing for some restrictions but not what's happening now. But that didn't happen.

Also Wisconsin is a state where all abortion providers have now closed due to a law passed before the Civil War...yeah it's going to be an issue there. Probably the top issue in the Supreme Court election this spring since if a liberal wins that the law will be struck down. U til then though it is firing people up.

[GALeftist]

People don't care about Dobbs either! They likely support some restrictions on abortion. What they can't relate to is somebody like Dixon pushing an extreme position about it, opposing abortion rights for 14 year old rape/incest victims . Or JD Vance stating that it is an "inconvenience". Republicans overreached is what happened.

What do you think Dobbs is

[Tintrlvr]

Same-sex marriage may be a more popular issue than abortion, but abortion is a much more important issue this election. So candidates' positions on abortion carry more weight than their positions on same-sex marriage.

Popularity also doesn't equal intensity of support. There's a good 10% of the population for whom support for SSM is nearly a live-or-die proposition, but to other liberals, let alone the sort of people who might actually consider voting Republican, it's much more theoretical as an issue. I'm under no illusions about both the breadth and shallowness of support for SSM; threats to Obergefell would never rally voters in the way the result of Dobbs did. Support for legal abortion may be somewhat less broad than SSM but is far deeper and therefore going to rally a lot more voters in its defense. The sort of people who support legal SSM but vote Republican anyway (and there are quite a few of them these days) would never have their vote swayed by the issue. If they would, they wouldn't vote Republican in ordinary times.

[Pericles]

People don't care about Dobbs either! They likely support some restrictions on abortion. What they can't relate to is somebody like Dixon pushing an extreme position about it, opposing abortion rights for 14 year old rape/incest victims . Or JD Vance stating that it is an "inconvenience". Republicans overreached is what happened.

What do you think Dobbs is

The Supreme Court never said Republican politicians had to take the most extreme and unpopular position on abortion they could, they chose to do that.

[wbrocks67]

The bottom line here is that any Democrat who may have voted for Johnson in 2016 maybe is definitely out based on 1/6, 2020 election handling, Roe, and now this. So that's that. And then you have Independents, who overwhelmingly support abortion rights, gay rights, and are not happy with Trump and 2020 election denying, so you have that.

You can't win WI just based off of GOP support.

[wbrocks67]

The bottom line here is that any Democrat who may have voted for Johnson in 2016 maybe is definitely out based on 1/6, 2020 election handling, Roe, and now this. So that's that. And then you have Independents, who overwhelmingly support abortion rights, gay rights, and are not happy with Trump and 2020 election denying, so you have that.

You can't win WI just based off of GOP support.

You can, if you can keep everyone else's turnout low enough.

Sure, but there's no indication that's going to happen this year.

[wbrocks67]

When you've lost Cahaly...

https://twitter.com/politicsrea/status/1567610004953341955

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1567600000611536896?s=46&t=euJERq2Ca...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson hasn't lead in any poll he is behind in Fox news and TRAFALGAR it's 51/45 Senate right now and if he is losing in MQK poll he will lose he is down by 7

51)45 means WI and PA are solidified and GA runoff, OH, NC and FL are Tossups I have a gut feeling Ryan will win

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gay marriage was massively unpopular pre Obergefell. Johnson was first elected when even LA county voted for prop 8 just 2 years prior. Vast majority of Republicans are neutral on the issue now, but I doubt it loses him votes to Mandela Barnes of all people. However he was better off keeping his mouth shut.

[Brittain33]

Gay marriage was massively unpopular pre Obergefell.

Obergefell was in 2015, and in 2014 Gallup polled SSM as 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable among the public on a continuous rise.

It may have been massively unpopular among Republicans before Obergefell. It certainly wasn’t among all Americans or independents.

As a same-sex married person who was married when SSM was still unpopular in Massachusetts, I can tell you the tipping point in the country came in 2012.

[Blair]

Isn’t it also a case that the average person is more likely to know someone who is in a SSM rather than someone who has had an abortion and told them about it…

That is broadly why when SSM happened the right new it was harder to stop- people find it much harder to object when it’s a cousin, colleague or so getting married and when they see that it hasn’t led to Sodom reborn and they too spend their time arguing about where to go on holiday, who should have taken out the bins etc

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Gay marriage was massively unpopular pre Obergefell. Johnson was first elected when even LA county voted for prop 8 just 2 years prior. Vast majority of Republicans are neutral on the issue now, but I doubt it loses him votes to Mandela Barnes of all people. However he was better off keeping his mouth shut.

WTF a majority of people supported SSM as early as 2011/2012.

[new_patomic]

I think people are confusing the sane position here too.

It isn't that Johnson is about to be voted out by a horde of angry liberals with pride bumper stickers galvanized to protect us gays.

But if he loses? Votes like this will be cited as contributing via death by thousand cuts.

 It's a midterm with a still unpopular Democratic President, the enthusiasm among Republican base voters should already be baked in. Dems are already running hard on abortion rights, the sort of evangelical voter who still cares this much about SSM, should also know Barnes could easily be the 50th vote to codify Roe. They shouldn't need more reasons to turn out and vote for Johnson.

There's easily more voters out there who don't like Biden and are concerned about the economy but who also are concerned that some Republicans are too extreme. This is such a gimme and he seemingly won't take it.