WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1560707406757232642

Obviously SAFE-R because voters only care about The Economy™, which is a combination of commodities futures and the prices at the local Wegners.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It would be interesting if Mandela Barnes pulls through. Do you think there will be a lot of Michels/Barnes split ticket voters or no? I still think Tim Michels is the favorite to win even if Mandela Barnes pills through, as Tony Evers is a very weak governor who didn’t accomplish much.

There were Baldwin/Walker voters in 2018, so why shouldn't there be this year? No matter how baffling we may find them, ticket-splitters exist.

Usually I would say that I'll take the Senate race going our way over the Governor's race since Senate elections affect the whole nation, but with election deniers like Michels, Mastriano, and Lake on the ballot this year those elections have national implications that are just as big. No major statewide Republican can win in any of those three states if we are to salvage this country.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be interesting if Mandela Barnes pulls through. Do you think there will be a lot of Michels/Barnes split ticket voters or no? I still think Tim Michels is the favorite to win even if Mandela Barnes pills through, as Tony Evers is a very weak governor who didn’t accomplish much.

There were Baldwin/Walker voters in 2018, so why shouldn't there be this year? No matter how baffling we may find them, ticket-splitters exist.

Usually I would say that I'll take the Senate race going our way over the Governor's race since Senate elections affect the whole nation, but with election deniers like Michels, Mastriano, and Lake on the ballot this year those elections have national implications that are just as big. No major statewide Republican can win in any of those three states if we are to salvage this country.

Tbf in a hypoethetical outcome where Dems win 52 Senate seats (Hold all + PA + WI), yet lose several key governorships to election deniers, they'd have the votes to make serious reforms and safeguards to ensure 2024 goes smoothly. Now if Rs win back a federal trifecta that's when things get scary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It would be interesting if Mandela Barnes pulls through. Do you think there will be a lot of Michels/Barnes split ticket voters or no? I still think Tim Michels is the favorite to win even if Mandela Barnes pills through, as Tony Evers is a very weak governor who didn’t accomplish much.

There were Baldwin/Walker voters in 2018, so why shouldn't there be this year? No matter how baffling we may find them, ticket-splitters exist.

Usually I would say that I'll take the Senate race going our way over the Governor's race since Senate elections affect the whole nation, but with election deniers like Michels, Mastriano, and Lake on the ballot this year those elections have national implications that are just as big. No major statewide Republican can win in any of those three states if we are to salvage this country.

Tbf in a hypoethetical outcome where Dems win 52 Senate seats (Hold all + PA + WI), yet lose several key governorships to election deniers, they'd have the votes to make serious reforms and safeguards to ensure 2024 goes smoothly. Now if Rs win back a federal trifecta that's when things get scary.

D's can wind up with more than 52 seats OH, NC and FL Act blue is heavily invested in Blk and Brown states and there is 15% Blk and 26 Latino and Arab and we had Bill Nelson, Hagen and Brown electected during Obama and Biden yrs

Cook and Sabato aren't gonna move those red states out of Lean R column because it's a 303 map but the maps are blank on EDay so the idea we can't win red states because the rankings is silly, Demings have a better chance than Crist and Nan W is tied with DeWine Ryan has way more money than Vance and only one poll has Vance AHEAD a conservative Emerson poll that says Trump gonna win OH by 15, NOT

McConnell said that OH is a battleground state like it or not Ryan and Nan Whaley can upset on Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Warnock holds on but I believe we lose GA in 24 and it's 15 EC votes but win OH 18 making it once again 306 FEIWAL BROWN, RYAN0 NAN W are gonna get elected

That OH Lake poll 44/43  Nan W v DeWine looks very bad for Rs and theyre gonna lose KY in 23 and Manchin and Brown and Tester are gonna hold on 24, they won in 2012 where Romney win WV and MT even if WV goes 100/0R

Ryan and Nan W overperformed is no accident Beshear won in 2019 in Red Appalachian

[UWS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW850wtmFvg

In fact Barnes is the only Democratic senate nominee in the country who has explicitly come out for abolishing ICE. That is extreme and careless and that will result to open borders and will worsen the border crisis. And every candidate who ran for office in a statewide race in a state that is either a toss-up state or a red state lost, including O'Rourke in Texas and Gillum in Florida.

And despite the fact that Milwaukee's homicide rate is up 100 %, he wants to eliminating cash bail.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DavidEdwards/status/1561387930622611456

[GALeftist]

This race has flown criminally under the radar compared to Ohio. Inching towards Tilt R as the environment improves imo.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1560707406757232642

Dems should be blasting “the 1849 law is an exact mirror of my position” all over the state.

[Koharu]

My spouse and I have been watching a lot of Hulu lately, and pretty much all the ads are for either Barnes or RoJo. I did see ONE Tony Evers ad recently, but it's about 80% political ads and has been all about the senate, excluding the one for Evers.

Ron Johnson's ad sucks. It's focused entirely on the price of fuel, which is obviously less of a concern than even a month ago.

That said, Barnes's ads aren't significantly better, policy-info-wise. They are better in production value, and Barnes is actually in them actively, speaking directly to the viewer, which I find to be much more compelling. But it's PAC ads that are going hard core after RoJo, but they're not at all touching the abortion issue.

I find it really strange that none of the ads I've seen have mentioned Roe or Dobbs, and I also haven't seen anything mentioning how Johnson wants to privatize Medicare/Medicaid, but that may be simply because I'm watching a streaming service and ads relating to that are going on broadcast stations.

[wbrocks67]

It's really giving "low energy crazy grandpa spouting off crazy stuff to neighbors"

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1564032723739721729

[Sir Mohamed]

It's really giving "low energy crazy grandpa spouting off crazy stuff to neighbors"

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1564032723739721729

Liddle Ron Johnson, who is TRAILING in polls (even Trashfalgar!) and was caught pretending to be on a fake phone call, recently had a "rally" with VERY SMALL CROWD and gave a LOW ENERGY SPEECH. ZERO ENTHUSIASM, SAD! Vote for @theothermandela, he will codify Roe, is strong for Veterans and SUPPORTS OUR GREAT FBI, which the Radical Right want to defund! MANDELA IS 100% with us!

[wbrocks67]

My spouse and I have been watching a lot of Hulu lately, and pretty much all the ads are for either Barnes or RoJo. I did see ONE Tony Evers ad recently, but it's about 80% political ads and has been all about the senate, excluding the one for Evers.

Ron Johnson's ad sucks. It's focused entirely on the price of fuel, which is obviously less of a concern than even a month ago.

That said, Barnes's ads aren't significantly better, policy-info-wise. They are better in production value, and Barnes is actually in them actively, speaking directly to the viewer, which I find to be much more compelling. But it's PAC ads that are going hard core after RoJo, but they're not at all touching the abortion issue.

I find it really strange that none of the ads I've seen have mentioned Roe or Dobbs, and I also haven't seen anything mentioning how Johnson wants to privatize Medicare/Medicaid, but that may be simply because I'm watching a streaming service and ads relating to that are going on broadcast stations.

Interesting, you'd expect that Barnes ads would go in very hard for Dobbs, so yeah, I wonder if there's some strategy to focusing them more on TV rather than streaming.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Based upon the recent special elections, it seems like if Barnes will outperform anywhere, it'll be in the Madison area. However, Madison is still only about 1/10th of the state, he'll have to find support elsewhere.

Idk if it's just me, but I really don't trust Waukesha County specifically as despite the County shifting to Biden and generally moving left, it doesn't seem like most of that shift is due to fundamental change within the electorate. The only County that seems true for is Ozaukee Couty where you see some very clear spillover of liberal whites and even some minorities.

[windjammer]

I think Barnes is one of the best candidates of this cycle. His ads are truly amazing.

[President Johnson]

I think Barnes is one of the best candidates of this cycle. His ads are truly amazing.

Agreed. This is also the TV debate I'm most eager to watch here, along with Pennsylvania and Georgia.

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, over again at the Johnson campaign...

https://twitter.com/RonJohnsonWI/status/1564360853809422337

[wbrocks67]

Okay, but really, what is this campaign that Johnson is running this year?

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1565403359120596992

[Koharu]

Okay, but really, what is this campaign that Johnson is running this year?

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1565403359120596992

I was literally coming to this thread to share this exact same tweet.

One of the RoJo ads that's running right now is a pair of retired Wisconsinites, talking about how Johnson is the right person to protect them. I just. What even.

[windjammer]

It's like if Ron Johnson doesn't really give a s*it anymore.

After all he wanted to retire so no surprise

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why are Republicans trying to provoke seniors so much this year?

[walleye26]

Based upon the recent special elections, it seems like if Barnes will outperform anywhere, it'll be in the Madison area. However, Madison is still only about 1/10th of the state, he'll have to find support elsewhere.

Idk if it's just me, but I really don't trust Waukesha County specifically as despite the County shifting to Biden and generally moving left, it doesn't seem like most of that shift is due to fundamental change within the electorate. The only County that seems true for is Ozaukee Couty where you see some very clear spillover of liberal whites and even some minorities.

I think it’ll be interesting to see. I think Ozaukee will definitely vote left of Waukesha, but Waukesha County is very college-educated. I feel like it will be like a dam giving way; if Waukesha really does see a 7-8% shift left this year, I highly doubt Ron Jon wins. Evers won statewide while getting 33% there, and if Barnes is putting up Biden numbers in Waukesha you can stick a fork in RonJon.

[Xing]

Please tell me Barnes will put this in his ads. The case that Johnson doesn’t care about working class people shouldn’t be a hard one to make.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah idk what Johnson is feeding cause he's saying a lot of bad things that any remotely vulnerable running for re-election should never say. I'm not sure if he's doing it on purpose in some kind of 4D chess move to make himself seem more sane come Election Day in November or what. As much as I dislike Johnson he is a competent and smart dude so I'd expect a better campaign than this from him.

[Koharu]

he is a competent and smart dude

I am being completely serious here: What has he said/done to make you think this? I honestly don't get this view.