WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kiss of death

Eh, it doesn't really matter. Safe R in 2022's environment.

WI has zero Voter Suppression laws if it was a Red wave why is Terry leading in VA and Newsom won in a Landslide

That's right you said Larry Elder was gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not a weak candidate, the Rs don't think Warnock is a weak candidate and both Barnes and Warnock are both socialist

The word socialist affects female candidates like Beasley, Nah Whaley and Demings whom except for Beasley are 10 pts more down because of Kamala Harris following AOC leaf in not enforcing the Border, AOC told Harris that she was being cruel to illegals by going to border and Harris stopped

These same R pollsters said Perdue was gonna beat Warnock like MT Treasurer and he a socialist too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

As others have explained elsewhere, he’s a pretty divisive figure in Milwaukee AA political circles, he is a terrible fit for both the old WI-3 area and the suburban areas in which we need to keep making inroads (not b/c he’s AA, but b/c he’s said some stuff that will play really badly in those areas), and he’s (IIRC) had a bunch of personal scandals regarding stuff like unpaid taxes and the like.  

He’s arguably our weakest major candidate in a competitive Senate race of the cycle so far.

No he isn't the last poll he was tied with Johnson, he will win you will see


Clarity Mandela Barnes 47 Johnson 47

Did you know Obama campaign for Mr Sen Mandela Barnes for Lt Gov yes he did, MT Treasurer said Perdue was gonna beat SOCIALISTIC Raphael Warnock and he won now they are saying the same thing with Mandela Barnes let's wait til after the primary Tom Nelson can win the primary too

Demings abd Beasley remind voters of Harris and SO19 still believe we're gonna win FL, not
HES NOT DOWN BY 19 pts like Demings whom is the weakest major party candidate because Kamala Harris deserted the Border.
Crist and Demings are down double digits

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don't get why users are Dooming on Barnes, MT Treasurer said Peduec was gonna beat Warnock because he is a socialist and Demings whom remind voters about Harris is down 19 and they are in such denial

Now Indy Rep said AZ is the most likely seat to flip, not true Kelly is Blue collar, unless Abrams runs, GA is going to a runoff and Walker can win

Harris hurts DEMINGS AND BEASLEY BECAUSE SHR SIDED WITH AOC that stopping immigrants is cruel

That's why Gideon lost she was viewed like Betty Sweet as a Socialist

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is complete trash. The GOP just needs to use these two tweets in every ad and they win.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1247995868898344960?ref_src=tw...
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1461765877347540995

Lol stop it with this Barnes is complete trash we have a D primary with Tom Nelson we don't know whom the nominee is and he is no more liberal than Warnock and Cory Booker and Barack  Obama was

It's a 3o4 map, Johnson praised the Insurrectionists that's why he is vulnerable

If Biden gets close to 50 which he will a yr after these disaster polls, it's a blue wave D's won 80 M votes not Rs and WI has gone D in ever Prez Election since 88 except 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

I expect the WOW area to rebound to at least Walker 2018 margins and rural areas keep shifting more and more Republican next year. Also medium sized cities like Appleton and Green Bay to swing Republican significantly too.

Didn't Biden, Obama, Kerry, Gore, and Feingold and Baldwin in 2018 win WI it's a purple state not a Red state.

Biden won WI 3 times 2008/12/2o

IA is now a Red state not a purple state, TX is a purple state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

Yeah, I think Evers is more vulnerable than Walker was in 2018, and I both predicted Walker winning in 2014 and losing in 2018 (I actually underestimated Walker slightly both times).

Lol Biden Approvals will go up between now and Election, Obama, Biden won the state 3xs Baldwin and Feingold won WI, LOL WI is a purple state not Red state and it's part of 278/304 blue NATE SILVER BLUE WE WILL WIN WI YOU WILL SEE WATCH

It's a Cook plus 2 D state like MI, PA
Walker lead Charter schools to success now it's school on line even for High school Student

Johnson pulls Rd down he praised Insurrectionists and is below 50 percent
They haven't even popped WI or PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is locked in a Primary battle with Tom Nelson he maynot won the primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The WI race by Cook standards is pure Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There hasn't been any state by state poll on this race Johnson only won by 300K votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think it matters too much whether Johnson runs or retires from the standpoint of what party will win. It's very hard to see a Democrat winning this race in this environment.

We haven't seen any state by state polls only Natl Approvals and IPSOS and ZOGBY contradict those 40 percent numbers Biden is closer to 50 than you think and WI is part of the 304/234 battleground

It depends on turnout 2018 midterm was 46/43 90 M but we had 80/75 M 150 M for 2020 if we get a Prez turnout it will be a Trifecta for D's and it's VBM not same day

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's wait till another poll come out the recent poll had it tied by Clarify

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is gonna LOSE users here don't believe in waves and despite Biden low Approvals he isn't on the downswing it's on the upswing, Cook rates WI Sen as Tossup, all the pollsters, 2018, had Walker winning including Nate Silver and he Lost, because he was Head of the RGA Govs Assoc. Johnson won only bye 30oK votes not 2M and so did Toomey

Portman won bye 2M but Josh Mandel isn't Portman and can lose OH Sen isn't safe R but Gov is, it's Tilt R/Tossups

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last poll had it tied 47/47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's are gonna remind voters about Johnson statement on insurrection that he praised just like Cruz praised insurrection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Johnson is gonna go thru scrutiny of him praising insurrection there has been zero state by state polls only Trash 43% Biden Approvals by the way ZOGBY has Biden Job Approval at 50/48 and Job Performance at 43/50 and IPSOS HAD BIDEN AT 52/48 THAT IS CLOSE TO THE BLUE WALL TO ME Biden won 50/45 in 2020 and WI, PA and MI are part of blue 🧱🧱🧱

It doesn't take Biden much to secure the blue wall we may lose the H but a 52/48 Senate is plausible WI/Pa/GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Not going to happen in a state with a fairly solid Democratic floor. Best case scenario would be a slightly larger win than his 2010 performance, though that's simply because I see a fairly small range of possibilities here (anything outside of a 3-6 point win for Johnson would be pretty surprising.)

What exactly is that floor ? Scott walker won by 6 to 7 in his 3 wins albeit with crushing margins from WOW.  Is it really that hard to see Wisconsin rurals say vote like Michigan rurals if Barnes fizzles out?

I fully expect Johnson to improve throughout rural Wisconsin, but he's definitely going to face some drop-off from his 2016 numbers in WOW, and will probably do a bit worse in Dane/Milwaukee as well. Unless turnout is anemic in both Madison and Milwaukee, it's hard to envision a double digit win.

As I told you many times Johnson didn't win by 2M votes he won by 350K and he only beaten Feingold because Walker was popular , Johnson's by himself the lone R left he will. Lose, he praised insurrection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson probably wins by 1-4 points this time....

If Barnes is his opponent, he probably runs "dog whistles" and he runs the Darnell Brooks case on him....if it is Lasry, he runs the rich liberal billionaire card....

Wisconsin is a battleground state.

Stop with this John's son is gonna win, he won by a small amount of points last time and this state was won by Joe Biden in 2020


Barnes is just as liberal as Baldwin and WARNOCK and they both won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook rates this a tossup and it remains a tossup until we a poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is more than liberal, he is a radical left-wing socialist out of step with Wisconsin. He supports socialized medicine, which means the government in charge of health care and doctors. In every place that happens, you have waiting lists and rationing. In the United Kingdom, if a senior needs a HIP replacement, it takes 90 days. In Canada, it takes 200 days. The cost of socialized medicine that Barnes supports would be immense as the Urban Institute, a left leaning institute, scored it as costing $32 trillion in 10 years, $2.5 trillion in the first year. The total we raise from our income taxes is $1.5 trillion so Barnes' plan would require tripling taxes. Even if he believes he can do it with five points on the corporate rate, that doesn't even pass elementary schools math. Even if he believes that could be done by taxing the rich, if you took every person in America $1 million or more and took 100 % of their income, it would pay for 5 months of Barnes' socialized medicine plan. Under that plan, Barnes wants to put everyone who hasn't paid into Medicare on Medicare and that would bankrupt Medicare, would hurt seniors who paid into Medicare for their whole life and rely on it for their health care. And putting 200 million people on it, including illegal immigrants, could bankrupt Medicare.

Barnes voted against authorizing work-share programs, against amending Wisconsin's iron-ore mining regulations and against reducing state income taxes.

Barnes is weak on crime and law enforcement, in fact, the gubernatorial administration which Barnes is working for vetoed a bill that would have penalized cities and counties that defund police departments.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-vetoes-bill-that-would-have-penalized-cities-counties-that-defund-police-departments/article_30125a78-7312-53d1-9972-9b16e305d008.html

Barnes also introduced legislation to eliminate “monetary bail as a condition of release for a defendant charged with” a crime, no matter the severity of the crime. Yes, you read that correctly – a proposal to eliminate prosecutors’ ability to keep dangerous people in custody. This bill died in committee but came after current Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm supported similar views in his inaugural campaign. Those views came back to light last month after Chisholm set what he later called an “inappropriately low” bail amount ($1,000) in the case of Darrell Brooks, who allegedly killed six people in a Waukesha, WI Christmas parade rampage just weeks after a domestic violence arrest. If the Barnes bill passed in 2016, Brooks, along with many other criminals, would have been freely walking the streets of Wisconsin for the past 5 years.

https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2015/related/proposals/ab981

And he also held a fundraiser with Robert Creamer, a felon who pleaded guilty to bank fraud in 2005 and was sentenced to five months in prison. More recently, Creamer and others tied to Democracy Partners got caught on camera in 2016 talking about inciting violence at Trump events. It got so out of hand that they had to take a step back from helping Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

https://www.nrsc.org/press-releases/barnes-gang-of-radicals-and-a-felon-host-fundraiser-2021-11-16/

Unsurprising that Barnes is a puppet of the radical Defund the Police movement and is endorsed by movements advocating the abolition of ICE.

So you can put all the lipstick you want on a pig but it is still a pig.

The idea that somehow Barnes is "out of step" with Wisconsin but Ron Johnson is not is...

This is smoke screen by RS because first of all they call Evers old and Biden old and Johnson and Trump are like the same age as Biden and Evers and then they don't want to talk about how Johnson praised insurrection

I get so tired of Bronze and MT Treasure say that Johnson is gonna win and Evers is too old especially Bronx abd Johnson is just as elderly looking as Tony Evers

Defunfing the police isn't gonna be a big issue this time no Floyd protests like in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson probably wins by 1-4 points this time....

If Barnes is his opponent, he probably runs "dog whistles" and he runs the Darnell Brooks case on him....if it is Lasry, he runs the rich liberal billionaire card....

Wisconsin is a battleground state.

Stop with this John's son is gonna win, he won by a small amount of points last time and this state was won by Joe Biden in 2020


Barnes is just as liberal as Baldwin and WARNOCK and they both won

What has Warnock to do with this? And Baldwin is an incumbent who ran against a weak opponent in a Blue Wave environment or, in 2012, when Obama was on ballot. Race is Lean R at least.

You know darn well Warnock is Blk and he's the same on every issue as Barnes why are so pro Johnson anyways he won in 2010/16 because Walker was popular, Walker is no longer there in WI  Walker was favored to win in 2018 all the pollsters even had Nate Silver had Walker winning, but Biden won WI in 2020 Johnson isn't Grassley he won by 350 K votes not 2M as I keep telling you Johnson supporters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is a weak, unpopular incumbent. Does it even matter in an environment as bad as 2022? No, most likely. I say like R+4-8.5 just because of the national environment.

Lol Biden Approvals are going up he has been in Reuters polling between 45/5o percent Approvals and we won a 303 map at Biden 50/45 anyways, users are so DOOM on this Election and there are hardly any polls except NY Gov

Even before his Approvals fell guess what his Approvals were 52/48 the same as in 2020


Why do users Doom everyday on Atlas on the Election because they're not getting 1400 checks


It's the same users DOOM all the time what did Trump do give a tax cut that's it, when Rs get in control they said economy is stringer than ever before they're not giving you those checks like in 2020 they're gonna cut

Bush W he said he would bring honor and integrity back to WH a tax cut for the rich

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is a weak, unpopular incumbent. Does it even matter in an environment as bad as 2022? No, most likely. I say like R+4-8.5 just because of the national environment.

Lol Biden Approvals are going up he has been in Reuters polling between 45/5o percent Approvals and we won a 303 map at Biden 50/45 anyways, users are so DOOM on this Election and there are hardly any polls except NY Gov

Even before his Approvals fell guess what his Approvals were 52/48 the same as in 2020


Why do users Doom everyday on Atlas on the Election because they're not getting 1400 checks


It's the same users DOOM all the time what did Trump do give a tax cut that's it, when Rs get in control they said economy is stringer than ever before they're not giving you those checks like in 2020 they're gonna cut

Bush W he said he would bring honor and integrity back to WH a tax cut for the rich

I am actually impressed on how often you try to interject pro-Democrat analysis. This isn't Fox News, this is an actual election analysis website(unless you are a troll).

You can call me s Troll behind the wall of the forum

There hasn't been any polling in WI, PA or MI we don't know what the polls are like you can't say WI is gone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know they haven't polled WI, PA and MI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a poll this is the only race they haven't done a GE poll