WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[walleye26]

RonJon is the freaking worst. He was a decent guy when he ran in 2010, and now he’s become your crazy uncle you have to deal with at Thanksgiving. In terms of who the Dems should nominate for 2022 Sen, Kind is #1 and it’s not even close. He would be inoffensive to suburbanites and could win some Driftless counties. Mandela Barnes would get crushed, his statements after the Kenosha shooting dumped gasoline on the fire, and Pocan would get crushed in both WOW and The Fox Valley as being a “Madison liberal.” Maybe a decently acceptable assembly/State Senate candidate would be fine. Even though she has little name recognition, Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa) Might not be a bad idea. Her district covers parts of Waukesha County, and she was reelected this year by an 8 point margin after winning by like 0.1 last year. Maybe Amanda Stuck? She was in the assembly from Appleton before she lost in a Congressional race this year. She’s from the Fox Valley, so maybe it’ll help with turnout there? Otherwise somebody like Nick Milroy from Superior would be ok.

[KaiserDave]

RonJon is the freaking worst. He was a decent guy when he ran in 2010, and now he’s become your crazy uncle you have to deal with at Thanksgiving. In terms of who the Dems should nominate for 2022 Sen, Kind is #1 and it’s not even close. He would be inoffensive to suburbanites and could win some Driftless counties. Mandela Barnes would get crushed, his statements after the Kenosha shooting dumped gasoline on the fire, and Pocan would get crushed in both WOW and The Fox Valley as being a “Madison liberal.” Maybe a decently acceptable assembly/State Senate candidate would be fine. Even though she has little name recognition, Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa) Might not be a bad idea. Her district covers parts of Waukesha County, and she was reelected this year by an 8 point margin after winning by like 0.1 last year. Maybe Amanda Stuck? She was in the assembly from Appleton before she lost in a Congressional race this year. She’s from the Fox Valley, so maybe it’ll help with turnout there? Otherwise somebody like Nick Milroy from Superior would be ok.

And Nelson?

[walleye26]

I don’t know much about Nelson, but if he’s well-liked in the Fox Valley that would be helpful.

[Roll Roons]

I don’t know much about Nelson, but if he’s well-liked in the Fox Valley that would be helpful.

He's supposedly a popular county executive, but lost his own county to Mike Gallagher by 18 points in 2016.

Also, Johnson said his 2022 plans were contingent on Georgia. He seems to imply that he'll retire if Republicans hold the Senate and run if they don't.

[walleye26]

I don’t know much about Nelson, but if he’s well-liked in the Fox Valley that would be helpful.

He's supposedly a popular county executive, but lost his own county to Mike Gallagher by 18 points in 2016.

Also, Johnson said his 2022 plans were contingent on Georgia. He seems to imply that he'll retire if Republicans hold the Senate and run if they don't.

Ugh. RonJon is the worst. I follow WI politics pretty close, and I know little about Nelson, so that should tell you something. I’m still on team Kind, but we will see what happens.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1341415782920630272

[2016]

The biggest Recruit for Democrats is already OUT:
Rep. Mark Pocan says NO to Johnson Challenge
https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1346141244326629376

[VAR]

The biggest Recruit for Democrats is already OUT:
Rep. Mark Pocan says NO to Johnson Challenge
https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1346141244326629376

he'd lose anyway tho imo, he's a socialist

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The biggest Recruit for Democrats is already OUT:
Rep. Mark Pocan says NO to Johnson Challenge
https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1346141244326629376

he'd lose anyway tho imo, he's a socialist

Ron Johnson is the most vulnerable R incumbent out there and Rs know it, just hanging onto hope that Johnson somehow wins like Perdue, that's why he is considering retirement

Tom Nelson is already in

[Bootes Void]

I'd think Ron Kind and Mandela Barnes may go for it especially Kind since he's probably gonna lose his seat

[Lambsbread]

Pocan was my top choice, but now I'm all for Mandela Barnes!

[It’s so Joever]

I want a Ron battle.
There can only be one.

[Xing]

Pocan probably made the right choice. I think he’d be a great Senator, but the “Madison libruhl” attack would probably have been used relentlessly against him and would’ve at least been a bit effective.

[walleye26]

Honestly, the order of recruitment should be (With Pocan out)
1. Ron Kind


(50 foot gap)


2. Amanda Stuck/Robyn Vining/Nick Milroy
3. ?

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R if Johnson runs again, Lean R if he doesn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R if Johnson runs again, Lean R if he doesn't.

WI is gonna be competetive, didn't you say GA was Lean R, I think you did

[Tekken_Guy]

Likely R if Johnson runs again, Lean R if he doesn't.

I disagree. Johnson is quite a polarizing figure. Mike Gallagher would be even stronger than Johnson IMO.

[coloradocowboi]

Pocan probably made the right choice. I think he’d be a great Senator, but the “Madison libruhl” attack would probably have been used relentlessly against him and would’ve at least been a bit effective.

It's like you people like in a world where Tammy Baldwin doesn't exist.

I don't think this seat is winnable period though.

[redjohn]

Ron Kind would be a comparatively strong candidate in the driftless area obviously, but in reality the driftless area only matters on the margins. Races are decided based on a Democrat's ability to turn out both Madison+Milwaukee, and to keep margins decently low in WOW. Kind would struggle to boost turnout in Dane+Milwaukee, which would be his downfall in a statewide race. He'd lose to Johnson by a good amount.

Baldwin winning statewide by 11 and simultaneously losing Adams county by 3 is a microcosm of the unfortunate irrelevancy of rural areas to Democratic margins. In her 2012 race she won Adams by 8 while only winning by 6 statewide. So she doubled her margin and still these areas fell through. Rural areas are just going to trend further right, even a candidate like Kind won't be able to win areas that have historically been extremely favorable to Democrats. I don't see any point in going for a candidate who might temporarily stop the bleeding and come up really short in the urban areas key to us winning.

Pocan would've actually been a decent candidate. Barnes is obviously the best statewide candidate besides Baldwin going forward, though. He's extremely popular in both Madison+Milwaukee, which is the recipe to winning statewide. But with the national environment so unfavorable to Dems in 2022 (barring some unforeseen national crisis), he should probably wait it out to run for Senate in 2028. Baldwin will almost certainly seek another term which probably rules out 2024. There's no point in Barnes running for Governor, which is a completely useless position in this state when Rs control the legislature.

[Xing]

Pocan probably made the right choice. I think he’d be a great Senator, but the “Madison libruhl” attack would probably have been used relentlessly against him and would’ve at least been a bit effective.

It's like you people like in a world where Tammy Baldwin doesn't exist.

I don't think this seat is winnable period though.

I’ve regularly said that Baldwin is underestimated, because she has proven herself to be a very good campaigner who has appeal outside of Madison and can create her own brand. If Pocan could end up doing that, great, but I don’t think that’s a given.

Then again, what do I know, I’m just a PINO.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t really get why people think Baldwin is underrated. She’s never had to run in a R-leaning or even neutral environment and won by double digits because she faced one of the worst Republican candidates of the cycle in a massive D wave year. Obviously she could win if 2024 is another favorable year for the party (and I do expect her to outrun Biden/Harris by 1-2 or so), but I don’t see how she has more of a brand than someone like Tester or even Casey. She would have done worse than Stabenow had she faced a similarly credible Republican candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t really get why people think Baldwin is underrated. She’s never had to run in a R-leaning or even neutral environment and won by double digits because she faced one of the worst Republican candidates of the cycle in a massive D wave year. Obviously she could win if 2024 is another favorable year for the party (and I do expect her to outrun Biden/Harris by 1-2 or so), but I don’t see how she has more of a brand than someone like Tester or even Casey. She would have done worse than Stabenow had she faced a similarly credible Republican candidate.

2022/ is a blue Senate map unlike 2014/2018, D's lost Senate seats in Red map. It's hard to imagine D's losing WI and PA where Ds are fav to win Gov races with Fetterman and Tony Evers

[coloradocowboi]

Pocan probably made the right choice. I think he’d be a great Senator, but the “Madison libruhl” attack would probably have been used relentlessly against him and would’ve at least been a bit effective.

It's like you people like in a world where Tammy Baldwin doesn't exist.

I don't think this seat is winnable period though.

I’ve regularly said that Baldwin is underestimated, because she has proven herself to be a very good campaigner who has appeal outside of Madison and can create her own brand. If Pocan could end up doing that, great, but I don’t think that’s a given.

Then again, what do I know, I’m just a PINO.

I just don't understand the difference between Pocan's politics and "progressiveness" and hers.

Do I think he would underperform her? No. But ff so, only for one reason: election after election recently--e.g. Alex Morse and Jon Hoadley--has proven that attacks on gay men's sexuality are extremely potent.

[Xing]

I don’t really get why people think Baldwin is underrated. She’s never had to run in a R-leaning or even neutral environment and won by double digits because she faced one of the worst Republican candidates of the cycle in a massive D wave year. Obviously she could win if 2024 is another favorable year for the party (and I do expect her to outrun Biden/Harris by 1-2 or so), but I don’t see how she has more of a brand than someone like Tester or even Casey. She would have done worse than Stabenow had she faced a similarly credible Republican candidate.

Probably because she was considered highly vulnerable (even more than Tester!!!!), and while she might've won by somewhat less against a better opponent, I don't think we can say for sure that it would've been by less than Stabenow. Either way, a victory of that margin, especially while the gubernatorial race was so close and Wisconsin isn't known as a state with a lot of swayable voters. I don't think she needs a particularly favorable year to win, as I could see her winning while the Democrats narrowly lose Wisconsin. If the Democrats lose Wisconsin by 4-5%, then she probably loses, but that would probably mean Democrats are having a bad night overall.

Pocan probably made the right choice. I think he’d be a great Senator, but the “Madison libruhl” attack would probably have been used relentlessly against him and would’ve at least been a bit effective.

It's like you people like in a world where Tammy Baldwin doesn't exist.

I don't think this seat is winnable period though.

I’ve regularly said that Baldwin is underestimated, because she has proven herself to be a very good campaigner who has appeal outside of Madison and can create her own brand. If Pocan could end up doing that, great, but I don’t think that’s a given.

Then again, what do I know, I’m just a PINO.

I just don't understand the difference between Pocan's politics and "progressiveness" and hers.

Do I think he would underperform her? No. But ff so, only for one reason: election after election recently--e.g. Alex Morse and Jon Hoadley--has proven that attacks on gay men's sexuality are extremely potent.

Pocan is untested as a statewide candidate. Maybe he would have fared just fine against the typical Republican attacks, but my gut is that he'd have a hard time.

[GALeftist]

I think RonJohn said something about how his running for reelection depended on Senate control, so I'm guessing this means he's probably in.