WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Lambsbread]

Yeah, Johnson not running for re-election actually hurts Democrats unless the GOP runs an extremely boring candidate.

Lean R -> Likely R.

How so? If Johnson ends up not running, this is straight tossup.

Johnson is more likely to lose a general election than someone like Mike Gallagher. Of course, this will be a very hard seat for Democrats to win in the likely 2022 environment.

I know this is the conventional wisdom on the site, because Johnson is "toxic" or "extreme" or "an insurrectionist" or whatever (these are all accurate labels; the scare quotes were to imply that they don't matter electorally). But do we have any real evidence that it's true? Given his over-performance in 2016, and the innate advantages of incumbency, and his presumable popularity among Trump voters...I'm just not sure he's any weaker than Gallagher or whomever the WI GOP would put up. MT Treasurer has made some good posts on this point and could probably argue it better than me.

You may very well be right. I think maybe I'm in a bubble wherein I believe that there's no possible way voters could pick someone like Johnson after voting for Biden and also voting for Baldwin. But voters are not logical, so I'm fully willing to admit that I'm maybe working under a misapprehension.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Silver has downgraded D's chances in OH, FL, IA and NC since the Afghanistan takeover not the Blue Wall states, due to Red Wall states has US Military bases not so much Blue Wall except VA and that's the Navy not Marines like OH has, most alumnis go to Ohio State


Check out 538 maps on You tube all of the now has Par McCrory and Josh Mandel winning but Mandela Barnes or Tom Nelson and Lamb or Fetterman winning. It's his voice on You tube 538 maps


WI Lean R rating is always exacerbated every Election cycle part of reason why SN was banned he kept saying WI, PA and MI were Lean R


Just like alot of Discord posters always say that

Even if Gallagher runs Silver says it's a D takeover, Gallagher is overrated

[S019]

Lean R -> Lean R. I highly doubt there are hoards of Any Republican but Johnson > Any Democrat > Johnson voters, or vice versa. Wisconsin isn’t exactly a state where being perceived as a centrist makes you more “electable”, nor does being perceived as far left/right function as a vice.

No it's not, if you really think D's can't make up 359 K votes that Johnson won and Baldwin won by a landslide you are kidding yourself, Russ Feingold almost won

It's Wisconsin in a midterm, Biden only won the state because of inroads in WOW and I feel like any non Trump candidate would at least do marginally better there (surely enough to make up 20k votes or whatever), not to mention that RoJo has historically overperformed in the Milwaukee metro, so I don't see that changing.

[President Johnson]

Probably still Lean Republican, but really depends on candidates. Would actually be nice to have this moron out of the senate.

For some reason, I think there will be quite some ticket splitting between senate and governor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably still Lean Republican, but really depends on candidates. Would actually be nice to have this moron out of the senate.

For some reason, I think there will be quite some ticket splitting between senate and governor.

Nate Silver said it's an RH 220/215 H and D S with D's winning WI and PA 52/48 AZ, MD, MA, NH, Govs

But D's can also have a 220/215H with a 52/48 Senate and get DC Statehood


Depending on Redistricting Nate Silver said

[Utah Neolib]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

[walleye26]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

[Utah Neolib]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

oooof, I didn’t know that. Ron Johnson will retire in my opinion, so Gallegher vs Barns

[Meatball Ron]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

Obviously you are in the ground in WI and I am not, but other than maybe #3, these items (especially #4) seem like thing that will ruffle feathers in political circles but not matter to real life voters.

Godlewski feels like a paper tiger to me and I think Barnes has the potential to be really strong (though this race is still an uphill battle).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

What about Nelson? Does he have scandals too? He looks the best to me

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Do not assume Ron Johnson definitely wants out. Senators often leave saying 'the gridlock/rudeness/etc. has become too much', but few opine that their legacies as failures.

"I'd rather be somewhere else," can very easily lead into a culture war refrain of "I'd rather be somewhere else, but duty calls and Biden wants to vaccinate your children." Indeed, in his interview, he says he admires George Washington because he didn't want to be president, which gives him an opportunity to present himself as some kind of reluctant hero.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Do not assume Ron Johnson definitely wants out. Senators often leave saying 'the gridlock/rudeness/etc. has become too much', but few opine that their legacies as failures.

"I'd rather be somewhere else," can very easily lead into a culture war refrain of "I'd rather be somewhere else, but duty calls and Biden wants to vaccinate your children." Indeed, in his interview, he says he admires George Washington because he didn't want to be president, which gives him an opportunity to present himself as some kind of reluctant hero.

For Johnson, being the nutcase he is, it's probably the reverse-the gridlock is why he is staying.

[Drew]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

What about Nelson? Does he have scandals too? He looks the best to me

Nelson’s problem is that he can’t win anything outside of his own county.  He ran for WI-8 in 2016, only to lose by more than 20 points, losing his home county and even underperforming Hillary.  He also ran for LG in 2010 and lost.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

What about Nelson? Does he have scandals too? He looks the best to me

Nelson’s problem is that he can’t win anything outside of his own county.  He ran for WI-8 in 2016, only to lose by more than 20 points, losing his home county and even underperforming Hillary.  He also ran for LG in 2010 and lost.

I mean is that really worse then a person who could be painted as a DC insider or someone who didn't pay taxes and lied about his college degree

[walleye26]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

Obviously you are in the ground in WI and I am not, but other than maybe #3, these items (especially #4) seem like thing that will ruffle feathers in political circles but not matter to real life voters.

Godlewski feels like a paper tiger to me and I think Barnes has the potential to be really strong (though this race is still an uphill battle).

It depends. I agree with you that most people won’t care (but #3 could very well come to hurt him badly in the suburbs, he made some comments along the lines of “police are just racists who want to push their vendetta against the black community” and that went over very poorly in Kenosha county in particular-Evers flipped it in 2018, but it got a fair amount redder in 2020 than normal.) about the other stuff but Wisconsin is truly won and lost at the margins. Even if the taxes thing irritates 1% of the population that could cost you the state. None of this is to say that he can’t win. Barnes certainly could, he has a pretty simple path to victory: high MKE/Madison turnout, don’t get killed in the suburbs and Fox valley, and lower turnout in rural western and northern Wisconsin. Personally, I wish Kind would’ve run, but Barnes could win. I just think some of these things like lying about his degree and unpaid taxes are going to turn into a “but her emails” thing and are kind of unforced.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do not assume Ron Johnson definitely wants out. Senators often leave saying 'the gridlock/rudeness/etc. has become too much', but few opine that their legacies as failures.

"I'd rather be somewhere else," can very easily lead into a culture war refrain of "I'd rather be somewhere else, but duty calls and Biden wants to vaccinate your children." Indeed, in his interview, he says he admires George Washington because he didn't want to be president, which gives him an opportunity to present himself as some kind of reluctant hero.

For Johnson, being the nutcase he is, it's probably the reverse-the gridlock is why he is staying.

Johnson is done, he isn't winning Reelection, Nate Silver already said it's a 304 map didn't SN say that WI was going R in 2020


The amount of users that think WII  Lean R and pbower2A agrees with me that it's not, it's a 304 map not 268 map and Tammy Baldwin won a Landslide

[Blair]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson won on Benghazi Hillary that's how he beat Russ Feingold

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

I certainly am not. He is hands down the favorite if he runs again, which I expect he will.

[SnowLabrador]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

I certainly am not. He is hands down the favorite if he runs again, which I expect he will.

He's definitely going to win if he runs again, but I don't know if he will.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

I certainly am not. He is hands down the favorite if he runs again, which I expect he will.

He's definitely going to win if he runs again, but I don't know if he will.

Hopefully he doesn't. Democratic chances to pick this seat up increase significantly if that's the case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

I certainly am not. He is hands down the favorite if he runs again, which I expect he will.

He's definitely going to win if he runs again, but I don't know if he will.

.
You predicted Peters, Warnock and Ossoff to lose and that's the 304 blue wall


Lol Johnson won on Benghazi Hillary, he was head of Hunter Biden probe until Rs lost the Senate

The reason why he is vulnerable he isn't targeting Biden with Hunter like he did as Chairman with BENGHAZI hearings


He only won by 350K votes both times margin of error, he didn't win by 20 like Portman or Young beat Strickland and Bayh

[Girlytree]

Alex Larry is a terrible candidate. He would be guaranteed to lose if he won the nomination.

[Girlytree]

Another Barnes endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BillGlauber/status/1427988344655466497

[Roll Roons]

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/brief/johnson-pushes-ivermectin-and-vaccine-conspiracies-while-local-officials-look-for-help-on-infrastructure/

Johnson is still probably a (very slight) favorite, but he's really not doing himself any favors. What's he even getting at with all of these insane comments?