WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kind would be a great Gubernatorial nominee in 2026, since Evers probably serves 2T and retires, he said that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

He is an Insurrectionists and he has lost the last two polls, granted it was a RV poll, he was losing in Democracy Corp and Change 48/44% the sake can be said about the six pt inflated lead that had Sununu up by six, it was a RV polo not a LV screen, Sununu is more likely tied with Hassan it was a RV poll and Rs keep touring that poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm guessing that he'll run again unless the environment actually does end up looking bad for Republicans. I actually don't think him running or not affects the margin/competitiveness of this race much at all. Either way, it's Lean R, and I'd guess around a 3-point win for the Republicans. While it's not impossible for Democrats to win this race, they pretty much need 2022 to be an "atypical midterm" for that to happen.

It's not Lean R when Two polls show Johnson losing 48/44 and Evers will carry Nelson over the top, we aren't losing WI, PA, NH, NV, and AZ when Biden and s at 54% Approvals. Johnson is well below 50%, last poll had him at 35% Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tom Nelson has been competetive in every poll and lead in Change 48/44 Tammy Baldwin won 10 pts this race is winnable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate hinges on AZ, WI and PA, unfortunately, for Hassan, Sununu is running as a Mainstream R, de facto D and she may lose like Whitmer

If Sununu is in a D chamber like Romney and Collins he will vote for bipartisanship like prescription drugs and infrastructure

Polls don't usually lie and they show weakness for both females

Hassan did it to herself by voting against minimium wage

Only in an R chamber and an R Prez DeSantis is gonna vote like an R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

#51 Seat pickup opportunity after PA and GA is the #52nd seat, of course due to runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not really, Biden has the same exact Approvals as he did on Election night and that means the 304 blue wall AZ 48, NH, 49, PA, 50, WI 51, GA 52 Runoff that's the 304 blue, this isn't OH or IA, remember Tammy Baldwin won by 10 pts, WI is a D based battleground not an R based battleground, underestimate Tom Nelson and Evers, he has a 53% Approvals, Evers is being helped by Nelson

Biden isn't popular in the S that's why R leaning states have VR Suppression Laws but he is more popular in the N

If something happens to Trump and he gets indicted there goes the H for Rs as well as the S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

[/b]
Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

Yes, if you live in Wisconsin and want to 'disprove the DC-minded concept of electability,' how about flipping a Senate seat blue in a swing state during a good GOP year? Of course, you could just elect the rich businessman and politician who doesn't think your vote is legitimate if you live in a swing state (I imagine you do; your image and comment suggest you reside in Wisconsin) and voted for Biden to a third term in the Senate.

And if you want to disprove the concept of electability, you should move to Illinois' 16th District and cast your vote in 2022 in the GOP primary for Adam Kinzinger - one of the 10 House Republicans who chose integrity and honesty over insurrection - because it currently seems like he will not win remomination.

Certainly the Wisconsin Republicans must have somebody more electable than the incumbent two-term Senator who has won multiple competitive elections.

All kidding aside, I think many observers (particularly in partisan media) tend to conflate "inspires the most impassioned support/opposition" with "is popular/unpopular" when this is almost never the case. I really don't see how Johnson isn't at least somewhat favored at the moment, with the potential to lose ground if the climate begins to favor Democrats. I suspect he knows this, which is why he's waiting as long as possible to announce his re-election.

This, this, this. (I'm been repeatedly trying to make this case with regard to Whitmer, who is constantly deemed particularly unpopular but in reality has routinely average/unremarkable approvals with the general electorate.)

Lol unless Biden is at 44% Approvals Rs aren't gonna win the Senate or 278 Govs, they are gonna win the H, but cracking the blue wall they're not, the Rs can win GA, but D's are gonna win AZ, NH, WI, PA and MI Senate races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nelson is our nominee, Kind is running for Gov in 2026/ Evers pledged to serve 2T making Kind have the best chance to win in 2026

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin seems like a fairly intelligent state.  Why do they put up with this nut job?  Aren't the residents embarrassed by him?

He was Elected at the same time Scott Walker was in 2010, and he didn't  align himself so tightly to Trump until Insurrectionists

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin seems like a fairly intelligent state.  Why do they put up with this nut job?  Aren't the residents embarrassed by him?

Wisconsin is an extremely divided state where results pretty much come down to turnout. Johnson ran in favorable years for his party, which 2022 seems more likely than not to be.

Biden approvals are 52/48 the same Approvals on Election night, the only reason why Ds are underdogs in the H is because in 2020 we had 230 seats  not 220 the only polls in this state was 48/44 Evers and Nelson, stop saying WI is leaning R and Tammy Baldwin won by 10 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mandela Barnes is gonna win this race, he won blue colla D's Ras Lt Gov, it will be interesting to see if Obama campaign for any S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 isn't an R favorable environment when Biden is at 52 percent and typically like Trump a Prez party loses seats in Midterms at 44 this per Gallup

D's are up nine pts in AZ, CO, PA and up 48/44 in WI that's not an R wave when Rs haven't lead in a single poll but FL and MO and NH is 4 mnths old already

Trump lost the H when he was a 45 percent Prez

That's why James Carville has put his input on MO and Jay Nixon, he is actively recruiting candidates, he said from say one before cycle he would recruit Demings and we haven't seen any polls outside that inflated 20 pts, Rs are the Favs in Red states but upsets happens

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are favs in IA and OH, but D's are favs in WI, 1 Election where Hillary lost the state and Rs assume WI is ah R state and it has vote for every D Prez except Kennedy including Gore, Dukakis, and Kerry losers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I like Mandela, I hope he wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson's certainly fundraising as though he is running. Lean R either way.

Rassy tracking polls show that Biden is at the same exact Approvals as he was on Election night meaning WI Leanss D the only polls out of WI had it 48/44 unless we see a PPP showing D's loosing WI it's a Lean D state

It's funny to me users can trust Sununu up by six and in the same time frame Nelson and Evers were up 48/44

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Will the Bucks Victory make any difference to this race given that their vice president Alex Lasryis running ?

D's are already favored to win WI and PA, we have zero polls in IA, OH and NC but Biden Approvals are tracking the same as they are on Election night 53/39% now and 51/46%, on Election night, which is a 304 map, a 52/48 Sen and a 218/217 H map is plausible but everything including GA Sen runoff must go right in H for D's in Redistricting pending the Report from the Jan 6th Commission, bit a 217 tie and Lynn Cheney not voting McCarthy Speaker can put D's back in Speakers chair

OH can be won but this is an R seat not a D seat where Brown and Tester would be favored in 2024, if the Election were held today Beasley and Ryan would lose by the same margin Biden lost those states by and FL, DeSantis received a bump from Surfside, he nor Rubio are loosing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes Is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hoping the dscc endorses Godlewski or someone else so we can avoid this disaster

You really believe this and Mandela Barnes won statewide Office before as Lt Gov wait for a poll, D's are gonna win WI and PA anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mandela Barnes won statewide office before this isn't like PA, where Fetterman is the clear favorite, Barnes whom is LT Gov can win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about Ron Johnson, Cook just changed the rating from Lean R to Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mandel Barnes has a similar name to Nelson Mandela will be the next Senator, because of Johnson gaffes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is a hilariously bad candidate, I hope he wins the nomination.

What DO YOU KNOW THE POLL IN MARCH HAD ABOUT GOV AND SEN DS LEADING GOV ABD SEN 48/44% RS ON THIS STATE REALKY THINK THAT WI IS IA AND OH

MLE AND PITTS NEED BIDEN INFRASTRUCTURE NEED AN UODATE ON BRIDGES AND ROADS

TAMMY BALDWIN WON BY 10 AND YES JOHNSON AND TONY EVERS ARE THE SAME AGE IF JOHNSON CAN WIN A SECOND TERM SO CAN EVERS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats are the most incompetent political party in world history. Of course, it's not likely to matter for this particular race; GCB polling indicates a red wave, and the Democrats cannot win WI-SEN in a red wave.

Crist is ahead of DeSaNtus the poll in March Snowlabrador had D's leading Rs as much as 48/44 in 2 consecutive Change Polls