WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Spectator]

I think Godlewski>Kind>Nelson>Barnes>rich guy.

Kind being in Congress could hurt him compared to someone young and fresh like Godlewski, but he’s also proven himself capable of winning a significant number of Trump voters.

This is still at least tilt R, but I don’t think Johnson being the incumbent is exactly a big help to Republicans in this particular state since he’s probably more of a lightning rod to Democrats than anyone else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kind would be a great Gubernatorial nominee in 2026, since Evers probably serves 2T and retires, he said that

[Terlylane]

https://mobile.twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1397666531463553025

[Roll Roons]

Imagine touting that endorsement and wanting to be considering a serious candidate.

[Terlylane]

BREAKING: Ron Johnson is STILL undecided!
https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-says-hes-still-undecided-on-re-election-bid/article_c9a5b965-1667-5abb-8a2a-35f92855ef4a.html

[Chips]

That may be a sign he's seriously considering retiring.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Johnson is going to retire.

[Spectator]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

[ElectionsGuy]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

He is an Insurrectionists and he has lost the last two polls, granted it was a RV poll, he was losing in Democracy Corp and Change 48/44% the sake can be said about the six pt inflated lead that had Sununu up by six, it was a RV polo not a LV screen, Sununu is more likely tied with Hassan it was a RV poll and Rs keep touring that poll

[Xing]

I'm guessing that he'll run again unless the environment actually does end up looking bad for Republicans. I actually don't think him running or not affects the margin/competitiveness of this race much at all. Either way, it's Lean R, and I'd guess around a 3-point win for the Republicans. While it's not impossible for Democrats to win this race, they pretty much need 2022 to be an "atypical midterm" for that to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm guessing that he'll run again unless the environment actually does end up looking bad for Republicans. I actually don't think him running or not affects the margin/competitiveness of this race much at all. Either way, it's Lean R, and I'd guess around a 3-point win for the Republicans. While it's not impossible for Democrats to win this race, they pretty much need 2022 to be an "atypical midterm" for that to happen.

It's not Lean R when Two polls show Johnson losing 48/44 and Evers will carry Nelson over the top, we aren't losing WI, PA, NH, NV, and AZ when Biden and s at 54% Approvals. Johnson is well below 50%, last poll had him at 35% Approvals

[Epaminondas]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

Does anyone remember Olympia Snowe's stances leading up to 2012?

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

No need for that to happen, it's been quite clear to the world since 2016 that the GOP will elect any joke of a candidate as long as they hit the buzzwords and throw the red meat.

[Non Swing Voter]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

[Blair]

why is the democratic field in this race so mute compared to the other big senate races?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

why is the democratic field in this race so mute compared to the other big senate races?

Not many good canidates, all the mdoerates except Ron Kind have been gerrymandered out. Safe districts tend to produce politicans poorly suited for winning general elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tom Nelson has been competetive in every poll and lead in Change 48/44 Tammy Baldwin won 10 pts this race is winnable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate hinges on AZ, WI and PA, unfortunately, for Hassan, Sununu is running as a Mainstream R, de facto D and she may lose like Whitmer

If Sununu is in a D chamber like Romney and Collins he will vote for bipartisanship like prescription drugs and infrastructure

Polls don't usually lie and they show weakness for both females

Hassan did it to herself by voting against minimium wage

Only in an R chamber and an R Prez DeSantis is gonna vote like an R

[Meatball Ron]

why is the democratic field in this race so mute compared to the other big senate races?

I mean, Godlewski is a state row officer, young, telegenic, and outran Evers/Barnes and Kaul in 2018. She’s not getting a lot of buzz for some reason but I don’t really see why she isn’t a top tier candidate.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1409862189918347270

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

#51 Seat pickup opportunity after PA and GA is the #52nd seat, of course due to runoff

[Schiff for Senate]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Also, I don’t get why he thinks Johnson is a "weak" incumbent or that Gallagher is more likely to win statewide than Johnson. Just because you personally don’t like/like either candidate doesn’t mean they’re inherently more/less "electable" than the other, something many people here need to understand.

At this early stage of the cycle/race, I’d rate this Lean R, but it’s obviously a must-win for Republicans.

Johnson is unpopular in Wisconsin; he wanted to discount the election results in his own state. He's supported overturning election results and misled the people of WI on COVID19. I personally want Johnson to get renominated in 2022 as I see a race with Johnson as the GOP nominee as the most likely scenario where the seat flips blue. If the GOP nominates someone more mainstream, like Mike Gallagher, they will almost certainly win the seat. It's not a question of what I think of Johnson (I strongly dislike him) - but I'm quite sure that opposing the election results in his own states won't buy him the votes he needs to win. If he does win, so can any other Republican (and Johnson will likely win by a smaller amount), and if he does lose (which would likely be by a narrow margin), it would be highly impressive, given that it is a Democratic gain in a swing state in a good GOP year, and something Johnson could accomplish. If he follows his current trajectory and wins the GOP nomination, and the Democrats nominate a strong candidate, like Ron Kind, Democrats have their best shot at flipping their seat. If the GOP nominates someone mainstream and uncontroversial, like Representative Gallagher, then they'll almost certainly win (and if they do lose, then Johnson would certainly have lost as well). Because Johnson opposing WI's election results probably costs him more votes (from suburban moderates in the WOW counties) than it wins him; while Gallagher would likely keep the WOW counties solid and possibly even expand their margin from Trump's in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not really, Biden has the same exact Approvals as he did on Election night and that means the 304 blue wall AZ 48, NH, 49, PA, 50, WI 51, GA 52 Runoff that's the 304 blue, this isn't OH or IA, remember Tammy Baldwin won by 10 pts, WI is a D based battleground not an R based battleground, underestimate Tom Nelson and Evers, he has a 53% Approvals, Evers is being helped by Nelson

Biden isn't popular in the S that's why R leaning states have VR Suppression Laws but he is more popular in the N

If something happens to Trump and he gets indicted there goes the H for Rs as well as the S

[Drew]

Johnson is unpopular in Wisconsin; he wanted to discount the election results in his own state. He's supported overturning election results and misled the people of WI on COVID19. I personally want Johnson to get renominated in 2022 as I see a race with Johnson as the GOP nominee as the most likely scenario where the seat flips blue. If the GOP nominates someone more mainstream, like Mike Gallagher, they will almost certainly win the seat. It's not a question of what I think of Johnson (I strongly dislike him) - but I'm quite sure that opposing the election results in his own states won't buy him the votes he needs to win. If he does win, so can any other Republican (and Johnson will likely win by a smaller amount), and if he does lose (which would likely be by a narrow margin), it would be highly impressive, given that it is a Democratic gain in a swing state in a good GOP year, and something Johnson could accomplish. If he follows his current trajectory and wins the GOP nomination, and the Democrats nominate a strong candidate, like Ron Kind, Democrats have their best shot at flipping their seat. If the GOP nominates someone mainstream and uncontroversial, like Representative Gallagher, then they'll almost certainly win (and if they do lose, then Johnson would certainly have lost as well). Because Johnson opposing WI's election results probably costs him more votes (from suburban moderates in the WOW counties) than it wins him; while Gallagher would likely keep the WOW counties solid and possibly even expand their margin from Trump's in 2020.

Aside from the fact that I question Kind’s appeal as a Senate candidate (explained in an earlier post), it’s sounding like he will be running again for his House seat.  Today, I received a fundraising email from the WisDems with Kind writing the email.  Here’s an excerpt:

After 2020, it’s more apparent than ever that the road to keeping a Democratic House majority runs right through my district.

We’re not the only ones who know that. As Republicans gear up for 2022 by suppressing the vote, WisDems is all-in to win the 3rd Congressional District and defeat the Republican extremists who want to take away our freedom to vote.

That’s why I’m counting on you to chip in to help send me back to Congress in 2022. If we win in 2022, that means protecting the right to vote, passing more of President Biden’s initiatives, and getting things done for Wisconsinites.

Though the term “Congress” in the bolded part is a bit vague as it could imply Senate, the surrounding context makes it sound like he’s going for his House seat again.

[Schiff for Senate]

Aside from the fact that I question Kind’s appeal as a Senate candidate (explained in an earlier post), it’s sounding like he will be running again for his House seat.  Today, I received a fundraising email from the WisDems with Kind writing the email.  Here’s an excerpt:

After 2020, it’s more apparent than ever that the road to keeping a Democratic House majority runs right through my district.

We’re not the only ones who know that. As Republicans gear up for 2022 by suppressing the vote, WisDems is all-in to win the 3rd Congressional District and defeat the Republican extremists who want to take away our freedom to vote.

That’s why I’m counting on you to chip in to help send me back to Congress in 2022. If we win in 2022, that means protecting the right to vote, passing more of President Biden’s initiatives, and getting things done for Wisconsinites.

Though the term “Congress” in the bolded part is a bit vague as it could imply Senate, the surrounding context makes it sound like he’s going for his House seat again.

Interesting...thanks for giving me this info!