WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is not favored there is no poll that shows him up substantially on Barnes eventhough Atlas users claim he is

Atlas users makeup polls that Johnson is up 10 pts and he only won by 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Honestly,
Is Mandela Barnes a strong candidate or not at all?

He seems like a decent candidate to me, but he'll have a hard time winning in this environment. A shame, too, Johnson sucks.

Lol the last MQK poll had Barnes leading 46/44 and Evers leading 48/40

You keep saying the same thing MQK is doing another poll 8/18 and it's gonna be Barnes 47/43 and Evers 49/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's would of had a much tougher time winning this seat back if Kleefisch won it's all on MSNBC Sen Elect Barnes, Sen Elect Fetterman it's a 303 map scenario anyways but Ryan, Beasley and Demings are over performing it's a 52/45 Senate right now with OH, FL and NC up in the air

That AZ poll proves it's a 303 map without Biden Approvals whomever wins NM or Maricopa county wins the whole Election and we won Maricopa Kelly isn't up 14 but he is up 51/46 clearing 50 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Lol the last MQK poll had Barnes up 46/44 Johnson only won by 3 pts this is the same WI Tammy Baldwin won, it's not Lean R it's a Tossup 3 pts is not Lean R that's why Cook has it as Tossup

What poll has Johnson ahead by 10 pts, none, Vance isn't even up 10

D's rooting for Johnson, Lol

We're in much better position to beat Johnson without Kleefisch with Michels

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Furthermore do users know what a range is, no they don't it's called wave insurance it's a 50 we get Divided Govt, 40 Secular Trifecta and 10 R Congress 235/210RH 51/56 D Senate seats that means the median is 230RH and 52/48 D S WI and PA but Beasley, Ryan and Demings are OVERPERFORMING meaning we can get with LA a D S when if we lose the H with more than 52 votes, and can win the H back in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're getting a MQK poll next weak is Johnson the Fav yes but is he the prohibited fav only Fetterman is the prohibited Fav bit we are the favs to hold the Senate and we can get anywhere between 51/56 seats but in Act blue they are conceding IA and MO to Rs they're not conceding anything else, I get emails all the time in what races there are poor Blks and Latinos and Muslims and single female moms in TX, FL, NC and OH, not just white men

Atlas thinks that females don't vote D they. Do, I was raised by a single mom

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes +3 makes sense if the end result is something like Johnson +6 (which is about what I expect.)

Lol stop Dooming on Barnes Johnson won by 3 pts do you know there are 390 K provision ballots statewide and Johnson isn't gonna get every vote last time, did you know Biden only won in Provisional ballots in AZ,I, WO, PA Erie Cty, PA had provision ballots statewide 300K votes is Johnson plus 3 and equal to 300 K statewide Provisional ballots

We are competetive in AK AL and that is Safe R state Palin was supposed to win outright Mary Peltola is now the leader and have a chance to win that seat if we are competetive in AK AL it's a blue not red wave

You must not have heard Steve Konraki he said Palin was supposed to walk away with this race and she is struggling  and Ryan, Beasley are all overperform

Oh I forgot users that Doom on D's don't watch MSNBC they watch Fox but Fox news said Beasley can win NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes +3 makes sense if the end result is something like Johnson +6 (which is about what I expect.)

.
Users are gonna have Crow, Barnes leads by 7 points😊😊😊😊

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any users forget Obama and Biden won WI, Tammy Baldwin was supposed to lose to Tommy Thompson and she beat him and Barnes and Evers best Scott Walker and Kleefisch in 2018 thats why Barnes is winning WI is a Divided state it votes sometimes for Rs and Johnson lucked out and beat Feingold by 3 not 10 pts MOE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It would be interesting if Mandela Barnes pulls through. Do you think there will be a lot of Michels/Barnes split ticket voters or no? I still think Tim Michels is the favorite to win even if Mandela Barnes pills through, as Tony Evers is a very weak governor who didn’t accomplish much.

There were Baldwin/Walker voters in 2018, so why shouldn't there be this year? No matter how baffling we may find them, ticket-splitters exist.

Usually I would say that I'll take the Senate race going our way over the Governor's race since Senate elections affect the whole nation, but with election deniers like Michels, Mastriano, and Lake on the ballot this year those elections have national implications that are just as big. No major statewide Republican can win in any of those three states if we are to salvage this country.

Tbf in a hypoethetical outcome where Dems win 52 Senate seats (Hold all + PA + WI), yet lose several key governorships to election deniers, they'd have the votes to make serious reforms and safeguards to ensure 2024 goes smoothly. Now if Rs win back a federal trifecta that's when things get scary.

D's can wind up with more than 52 seats OH, NC and FL Act blue is heavily invested in Blk and Brown states and there is 15% Blk and 26 Latino and Arab and we had Bill Nelson, Hagen and Brown electected during Obama and Biden yrs

Cook and Sabato aren't gonna move those red states out of Lean R column because it's a 303 map but the maps are blank on EDay so the idea we can't win red states because the rankings is silly, Demings have a better chance than Crist and Nan W is tied with DeWine Ryan has way more money than Vance and only one poll has Vance AHEAD a conservative Emerson poll that says Trump gonna win OH by 15, NOT

McConnell said that OH is a battleground state like it or not Ryan and Nan Whaley can upset on Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Warnock holds on but I believe we lose GA in 24 and it's 15 EC votes but win OH 18 making it once again 306 FEIWAL BROWN, RYAN0 NAN W are gonna get elected

That OH Lake poll 44/43  Nan W v DeWine looks very bad for Rs and theyre gonna lose KY in 23 and Manchin and Brown and Tester are gonna hold on 24, they won in 2012 where Romney win WV and MT even if WV goes 100/0R

Ryan and Nan W overperformed is no accident Beshear won in 2019 in Red Appalachian

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My question is where does Barnes make up ground from Biden? I'm sure Johnson does worse in Waukesha county than his 69% in 2016 but I still think he does better than Trump's 59% in 2020. The driftless is rapidly trending away from Democrats, and Barnes isn't the best candidate to appeal there. That leaves us with Dane which he probably does well there but will it be enough ? There is Milwaukee but he will have to do better than Biden there. The Milwaukee metro isn't very big actually - it is comparable to Pittsburgh.

Blue Milwaukee is about 1/8th of the state and Madison about 1/10th so a swing is not enough for Barnes, they’d need to have the lowest drop off in turnout.

Perhaps Barnes could overpform in Kenosha and Racine? In 2020, it seems like the riots def had an impact on how they voted keeping arguably keeping both counties in Trump’s favor and barely budging from 2016 despite demographically one would have expected them to swing slightly left.

Overall, rural areas and small towns really are what dominates WI, but the state is competitive due to many of the rurals being relatively light R and Dems insane margins out of Dane County.

That should scare Dems, because if rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Minnesota let alone Iowa, then it becomes a comfortably red state.

He replicates Tammy Baldwin margins, lol Barnes has lead in every poll stop Dooming on Barnes even TRAFALGAR has Barnes up 2 he and Evers ran as a  team and beat Scott Walker and Prez Obama with Veep Biden won WI in 2008/12, Obama endorses Barnes in 2018 as LT Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The users act like Tammy Baldwin didn't beat Tommy Thompson 2012, she didn't have a real opponent in 2018 but she did beat Tommy Thompson and Obama won WI, Paul Ryan was selected as Romney running mate to win WI and CO and Romney failed

There was a real chance that Romney was gonna win VA too but whom came to Obama rescue Veep Joe Biden he beat Ryan in the Debate, and Biden is Prez now

If Tammy Baldwin can beat Tommy Thompson so can Mandela Barnes but Rs have no problem with Tim Scott or Walker or Clarence Thomas.or Sure Woodbury infamous Larry Elder win Cali recall

Herschel Walker may in fact win he isn't Trumpian that's why we need WI, PA, OH either NC or FL so D's can have 53 votes and Rs can't win back Sen in 2024 with OH, MT and WVA, Gwen Graham is probably gonna run against Rick Scott especially if Demings beat Rubio and she is tied like BEASLEY is, in NC there is a 3rd party spoiler

If we don't win NC or FL IN or IA can flip with OH we have plenty of seats in play for Sen it's a Prez map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 has upgraded Barnes chances to 47% and BEASLEY 37% and Ryan 25% they have GA 50% but it's a Runoff state NC, OH, and WI will flip before GA because it's more likely WARNOCK is going to a runoff I think that's why users like Sir Muhammad thinks WI is Lean R but it's a 303 map and WI not GA gets us over 270

Like in 24, it's more likely we won OH or FL or NC because we have Gov race in NC and key Senate races in OH and FL, GA doesn't have a SEN race until 26 and Ossoff will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson hasn't lead in any poll he is behind in Fox news and TRAFALGAR it's 51/45 Senate right now and if he is losing in MQK poll he will lose he is down by 7

51)45 means WI and PA are solidified and GA runoff, OH, NC and FL are Tossups I have a gut feeling Ryan will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/MikeBradleyMKE/status/1569484045809258496

This was pretty much inevitable, and it's telling that Barnes is put in a very different category of "candidate quality" than, for example, Fetterman, and isn't considered "in touch" despite having a working class background and spending a good amount of time in rural Wisconsin. The issue for Barnes is that, unfortunately, he does have to be careful if he decides to respond directly to this or call it out, since he could easily be painted in a negative way if any response of his is deemed "aggressive."

Honestly in many ways the PA and WI senate races are pretty similar:

-PA and WI have nearly identical partisanship and simillar demographics
-Johnson and Oz are both out of touch and have said their share of offputting things
-Fetterman and Barnes are running on being a solid Dem, not some moderate hero, but still portraying good optics
-Both Fetterman and Barnes are LGs who saw clear consolidation of support in the primary
-Both Fetterman and Barnes know how to use various forms of media well, at least compared to their opponents
-Fetterman and Barnes are very much running all county campaigns and doing outreach to rural areas
-Johnson and Oz have really tried to redo their image to make them more relateable with various degrees of success
-Polling has been pretty simillar in both races but we know both states can have problems with polling

The main differences are:

-Johnson is there incumbent whereas Oz isn’t
-Johnson is def a bit more full maga than Oz
-Fetterman is white and hence has an easier time painting himself as that WWC union champion compared to Barnes
-Fetterman stroke

Yeah Mandela Barnes ran with Tony Evers in 2018 and defeat Kleefisch and Scott Walker did you know that in 2018 lol Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll

Even TRAFALGAR and Fox has Johnson behind look at the database it's colored D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In all seriousness why exactly did Johnson overperform Trump so much in 2016, especially relative to a lot of the gop candidates who would’ve been expected to overpeform the top of the ticket by more (Toomey, Ayotte, ect). Was Finegold just like really bad or did he have some unique appeal I’m not aware of? It just seems strange given he seemed to have the most baggage throughout the cycle of the incumbent Rs.

The Rs underperformed Trump when he wasn't on the ballot WI, PA, OH, KY 2018/2019 that's why Wolf won by 17 and Tammy Baldwin won by 10 and Brown won by 7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Either this race was never as competitive as public polling has shown, or Democrats are blowing it. They haven't been spending at all to counteract Johnson's massive ad blitz. What a joke of a party!

Lol, the Hurricane IAN coverage has blanketed the air Waves l, stop Dooming on Barnes it's only 4 pts and Pat Ryan came back from 8 pts with Early voting we haven't voted yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Either this race was never as competitive as public polling has shown, or Democrats are blowing it. They haven't been spending at all to counteract Johnson's massive ad blitz. What a joke of a party!

This I will agree with. Barnes had a late start so unfortunately the primary screwed him, but Democrats should've been ready. The GOP has over $10M+ spending advantage on Dems in outside spending.

This is less about Barnes failing but moreso that Dems are getting outspent.

Hurricane IAN has clearly knocked the Trump corruption off the airwaves that was benefiting D's, especially Espionage that's partly the cause of reversed poll numbers but PPP just polled this race it's tied, he SL is just being a DOOMER he said Gary Peters and Whitmer and Warnock we're going to loose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes and Obama ran white white candidates in WI Barnes ran with Evers in 2018 and got elected LT Gov and Obama ran with Biden in 2008/12 so Barnes running solo is different than running in IL,MI, PA, NC or GA as we see Demings is having the same problem as Barnes, that's the reason why Barnes is underpolling but it's only 4 points how many pts did Pat Ryan come back from in blue state NY 8, clearly, Beto down by 8 is totally different in red TX than being down by 4 in blue WI, we are in early voting season we are gonna win WI

Evers is tied with Michels so that should help Barnes and PPP just POLL this race and they had it tied

Coincidence, Vance is supposed to be up by 8 he isn't, now Don Jr is running to Vance rescue but Ryan is not down by 8 pts he has a chance due to early vote too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

Yeah Barnes is so behind the 8 ball he is only down 2 lol gimme a break

Users really think 2 pts is a done deal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

This never seemed like it was going to be the decisive seat but could easily have been seat 51 or 52 for Dems so just throwing it away seems silly. My main theory is after his 2016 upset, Dems are very hesitant to spend on this race again

Lol Barnes said he's gonna win and we haven't had an EDay yet, plse wait for the results , you have AZ, GA, PA wrong Warning, Kelly and Fetterman are gonna Barnes and CCM are gonna win 2 pts is nothing

This is Wally we're talking about not wbrooks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Johnson, Vance, Laxalt or Lee were so strong they would be leading outside the margin of error like Rubio he is now leading Dings 51/46 that means they are on the verge of losing including Budd whom is tied with Beasley as U said Rs need at least a 5 pt lead consistent not just in TRAFALGAR or Emerson polls in order to withstand D Early Voting which is underway, and D's have Blk and Brown vote to fall back on to get them over, Rs don't they have white men to put them over, Pat Ryan came back from 8 pts and won by 3 that's a 5 pt lead for Molinar

Obviously, Johnson isn't that strong he only has managed a 4 pt lead the max over Barnes and now it's down to two, plse stop declaring winners before we vote, that's why we have prediction, put it on your map, but if you make an R nut map you can't update your map after EDay , Fetterman has lead at least by 10 pts and so has Lee over McMillin but McMillan can still win

Johnson and Laxalt 3/4oys that's MOE their max LEADS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why is this not in every single ad that Barnes/Dems are doing?!

https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1576337675103383554

Because the Democrats are a broken-down dysfunctional disaster of a party. That's why Johnson is going to run away with this race. He is only up 2 pts that isn't running away with this race PPP has it tied and Data 4 Progress has Johnson up two and Early voting is underway SL is a Doomer

Well don’t you get involved and try to change it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't live in these states and we are making assumptions on how these states will vote but it's a 52/44 map WI, PA Leans D and PA and GA and OH, NC and FL and UT are Tossups I know that much and it can be more IA, IN, MO and KY and assuming that FL is safe R is bad for your map prediction along with NC those are the first swing states up if DEMINGS, Crist and Beasley win you are gonna be wrong on your R nut map that's why I don't make one