Will Biden win Elliott County, KY?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

You see the title of the thread.

[Roll Roons]

Nah. But I think McGrath will.

[Orwell]

Counter point: Biden will hit 40% in Elliot

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trends are ________

[Hope For A New Era]

For most of this year, I would have said no, but it's honestly looking like a real possibility at this point. It went D in all statewide races last year (and for Treasurer and Agriculture Commissioner, it was the only D county other than Jefferson and Fayette).

With the strongly D national environment and the lack of Hillary Clinton on the ticket, I think it just might be possible.

[Alcibiades]

Elliott is still clearly Democratic by default - it voted for the Democrat in all statewide races last year, and will always vote for a generic D over a generic R. Hillary was uniquely despised there, but obviously Biden is much closer to a generic D. Trump is still far more popular than the average Republican in Appalachia, but I think Elliott could be surprisingly close (although my gut still says a Trump victory).

McGrath wins comfortably.

[Calthrina950]

No, although I suspect Biden will improve over Clinton there, and that McGrath will carry it fairly easily against McConnell. Elliott County is one of only two counties in Kentucky (Wolfe County is the other) to have never voted for McConnell in any of his Senatorial bids. That streak will not be broken this year.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No, but it will swing against Trump.

Counter point: Biden will hit 40% in Elliot

I'll go out on a limb and say Biden will get 35% there, and I also agree that McGrath will win it: Mitch has never been popular in that part of the state, and he'll underperform how a generic R would do like he almost always does.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why was hillary clinton so despised  in these areas? she's was the first lady of Arkansas for a long-time and Bill was loved by those states.

[Alben Barkley]

Trends are ________

Fake news!

Elliott County is definitely going to trend left this year. Trump will likely still win it, but it’s not gonna be MORE R than 2016.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trends are ________

You got utterly clowned on this schtick a year ago.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trends are ________

You got utterly clowned on this schtick a year ago.

Are you referring to the gubernatorial election where despite winning by the same margin statewide as he did in 2015, Beshear had outsized swings in urban and suburban counties?

I will admit my prediction was flatly wrong because I am a big boy, but the #trends were still definitely there between Beshear's 2015 and 2019 wins. Just as they were in LA and MS.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Nah. But I think McGrath will.

Lol. McGrift ain't doing better than Biden. She might win it but in that case Biden would too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trends are ________

You got utterly clowned on this schtick a year ago.

Are you referring to the gubernatorial election where despite winning by the same margin statewide as he did in 2015, Beshear had outsized swings in urban and suburban counties?

I will admit my prediction was flatly wrong because I am a big boy, but the #trends were still definitely there between Beshear's 2015 and 2019 wins. Just as they were in LA and MS.

You claimed the election was Safe R. You got utterly and brutally owned and deserve to be mocked for it for as long as you post.

[Roll Roons]

Nah. But I think McGrath will.

Lol. McGrift ain't doing better than Biden.

Oh she sucks as a candidate, but I feel like Trump is way more popular than Cocaine Mitch in EKY.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trends are ________

You got utterly clowned on this schtick a year ago.

Are you referring to the gubernatorial election where despite winning by the same margin statewide as he did in 2015, Beshear had outsized swings in urban and suburban counties?

I will admit my prediction was flatly wrong because I am a big boy, but the #trends were still definitely there between Beshear's 2015 and 2019 wins. Just as they were in LA and MS.

You claimed the election was Safe R. You got utterly and brutally owned and deserve to be mocked for it for as long as you post.

What's your point dude? I acknowledge my prediction was wrong because I am a grown adult capable of admitting my mistakes. Seems like you could do that yourself.  Doesn't stop the #trendz

[Stranger in a strange land]

Nah. But I think McGrath will.

Lol. McGrift ain't doing better than Biden. She might win it but in that case Biden would too.

McGrath winning Elliott county when McConnell has never won it and Rand Paul's openly gay city boy opponent won it in 2016 despite it voting 70% for Trump isn't unlikely at all.

[TML]

Why was hillary clinton so despised  in these areas? she's was the first lady of Arkansas for a long-time and Bill was loved by those states.

Her comment containing a reference of putting coal mines out of business alienated many people in this coal-producing region.

[YE]

Let’s not re-fight this. Be happy Beshear won.

Ugh, this county isn’t captabile with clean moderation.

[One Term Floridian]

Zomg get a room you two. SexualTensionIsUsuallyReal

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trends are ________

Fake news!

Elliott County is definitely going to trend left this year. Trump will likely still win it, but it’s not gonna be MORE R than 2016.

Trend is not the same as swing. Of course it will swing D but it will probably swing less than the nation as a whole

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

No. Just look at other counties in and around Appalachia (Southern WV, Southeast KY, Southwest PA) that voted for Gore and then turned red. They never never came back. Biden is less hated than Hillary (the real reason why Bernie underperformed in 2020 - many of his 2016 voters were just protesting Hillary) but he's not going to reverse the underlying trend.

[Alcibiades]

While we’re at it, what is it about Elliot County in particular that has made it so powerfully Democratic? There are plenty of counties throughout Appalachia with similar histories (secessionist, then New Dealer) and socioeconomic profiles which abandoned the Democrats much earlier than Elliott.

[AGA]

Lol, no.

[Suburbia]

Yes.