UT - RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute: Trump +12

[VAR]

Oct 12-17, 1000 LV, MoE: 3.1%

Changes with Sept 7-12.

Trump 50% (-3)
Biden 38% (+3)
Jorgensen 3% (-2)
Hawkins 0% (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Not sure 7% (+1)

Trump approval: 55/44 (+11)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 52/46 (+6)
Biden: 38/60 (-22)

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/10/22/21528825/news-poll-utahns-concerned-election-results-being-accepted-by-trump-biden-hinckley

[Rand]

Sad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Only + 12 in what used to be the most R state is a terrible for Trump

[SaneDemocrat]

I saw UT and my brain instantly went to Texas.Thank god!!

[Hope For A New Era]

I'll throw out a prediction. 55% Trump, 40% Biden, 5% other.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

37.999% of Utahns...and Mitt!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

But yeah, an incumbent Republican President at 50 in Utah would have implied a beyond-apocalyptic nationwide environment for the GOP as recently as five years ago and if Interior West state Democratic parties are smart they'll try to capitalize on the weakening of Mormon bloc voting as much as possible while it lasts.

[DINGO Joe]

If they had included Kanye, Trump would have been under 50.

[Bootes Void]

Biden will crack 40% in Utah and that will be good enough

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Utah isn't going D

[jeron]

Utah isn't going D

Who ever said it was?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Biden will crack 40% in Utah and that will be good enough

This would be a post-1964 record, I believe.

[Ljube]

I think Trump will be around 50% in Utah and will underperform in terms of margin compared to 2016.

[forsythvoter]

I'm actually pretty surprised UT is even this close. A +12 Trump margin in UT implies significant erosion among LDS voters, which could hurt Trump in other western states like Arizona and Nevada.

[Figueira]

But yeah, an incumbent Republican President at 50 in Utah would have implied a beyond-apocalyptic nationwide environment for the GOP as recently as five years ago and if Interior West state Democratic parties are smart they'll try to capitalize on the weakening of Mormon bloc voting as much as possible while it lasts.

Outside of religion, Utah is a demographically good state for modern Democrats--lots of suburbs. Not sure to what extent the Mormon GOP lean can be overcome though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

But yeah, an incumbent Republican President at 50 in Utah would have implied a beyond-apocalyptic nationwide environment for the GOP as recently as five years ago and if Interior West state Democratic parties are smart they'll try to capitalize on the weakening of Mormon bloc voting as much as possible while it lasts.

Outside of religion, Utah is a demographically good state for modern Democrats--lots of suburbs. Not sure to what extent the Mormon GOP lean can be overcome though.

It probably depends heavily (much more so than in most states) on how pro-life Democratic candidates seem.

[Calthrina950]

This poll indicates that Biden appears to be picking up the lionshare of Evan McMullin voters, which isn't surprising (though Trump is clearly gaining a number of these voters as well, and probably some of the Gary Johnson voters also). Nevertheless, my earlier prediction of a 55-40-5% result in Utah seems like it could be bearing fruit, and as has been said, would constitute the worst majority Republican performance here in decades (not counting the plurality wins of H.W. Bush in 1992 and Trump himself in 2016).

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

lmfao trump up 12 in the 3rd most republican state in the union

[NOVA Green]

This poll indicates that Biden appears to be picking up the lionshare of Evan McMullin voters, which isn't surprising (though Trump is clearly gaining a number of these voters as well, and probably some of the Gary Johnson voters also). Nevertheless, my earlier prediction of a 55-40-5% result in Utah seems like it could be bearing fruit, and as has been said, would constitute the worst majority Republican performance here in decades (not counting the plurality wins of H.W. Bush in 1992 and Trump himself in 2016).

I think the last poll of Utah that I recall had McMullin voters splitting roughly 40% Biden- 40% Trump- 20% undecided (Or something similar).

I didn't see a specific breakdown in this poll, but yes by logical inference the topline numbers would appear to suggest that the former "undecided" McMullin 2020 voters are breaking heavily against Trump.

DEM Swings in Davis County, and to some extent Utah County should be interesting to watch, not to mention Salt Lake County becoming a 50%+1 Democratic County in 2020 (and most likely significantly higher than 50% exceeding the Obama narrow plurality win over McCain in '08).

[DaleCooper]

Hard to see Burgess Owens winning if these numbers are close to accurate.

[pbrower2a]

Incredibly weak for a Republican nominee for President. Mitt Romney won Utah by almost 40% against one of the strongest incumbent Presidents ever eight years ago.

 

[TheLaRocca]

seems accurate.

60-40 is my guess. maybe 58-42.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Utah President by RMG Research on 2020-10-17

Summary: D: 38%, R: 50%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Astatine]

Utah isn't going D

Cory Booker would've made it Safe D.

[TDAS04]

I think the actual margin will be roughly this in the end.