PA - Muhlenberg College: Biden +7

[VAR]

Oct 13-20, 416 LV, MoE: 5.5%

Changes with Aug 11-17.

Biden 51% (+2)
Trump 44% (-3)
Neither/other 2% (-1)
Not sure 4% (+1)

GCB: 47-41 D

Trump approval: 43/51 (-8)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 40/52 (-12)
Biden: 42/42 (=)

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/PA_ELEC2020_OCT_REPORT_1.pdf

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Was Clinton +6 in their 2016 poll around the same timeframe (Oct 20-26), but both the third-party vote and the level of undecideds was much higher.

Oct 20-26, 420 LV (ayy!)

Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 8%
Other/unsure 8%

Here's Muhlenberg's last PA poll taken before the 2016 election:

Oct 30-Nov 4, 405 LV

Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Other/unsure 9%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden 51% (+2)
Trump 44% (-3)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Was Clinton +6 in their 2016 poll around the same timeframe (Oct 20-26), but both the third-party vote and the level of undecideds was much higher.

Oct 20-26, 420 LV (ayy!)

Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 8%
Other/unsure 8%

Here's Muhlenberg's last PA poll taken before the 2016 election:

Oct 30-Nov 4, 405 LV

Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Other/unsure 9%

It was also pre-Comey.

[Crumpets]

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For Morning Call

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Does Trump deserve reelection?

NO 51%
YES 44%
Not sure 5%

[Rand]

Pennsylvania is Joe’s to lose.

[tagimaucia]

Oct 30-Nov 4, 405 LV

Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Other/unsure 9%

I know this is hardly scientific, but if you take the actual Pennsylvania 2016 results and then back out from them the voters who in the 2016 PA exit poll say they decided in the last week, you get:

Clinton 42
Trump 40

The thing about the polling miss in 2016 in the rust belt, is that it probably stemmed from a combination of three things: a failure to properly weight by education (in most but not ALL polls), a large number of undecideds who broke heavily for Trump, and a correlation between non-college whites with particularly low levels of social trust being more likely to vote for Trump and less likely to answer polls (i.e. even when you weight properly, the sample of non-college whites you get is a bit less Trumpy than reality).  

The first two issues shouldn't really be a problem this year.  I believe the last problem still exists and that the polls in these states will probably still be a bit off (though its possible pollsters are overcompensating for this in some ways and I'll be wrong), but probably only by a couple of points.

[wbrocks67]

All recent high quality polls point to about a 7/8 pt lead for Biden here.

[redjohn]

Great poll for Biden in his most important state to win the race.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Sounds reasonable.

[Badger]

Biden over 50. Huge distinction from 2016.

In fact, that is effectively the mantra for damn near every Nationwide and Battleground States poll we've been seeing

[Roll Roons]

Biden +6 or 7 is pretty much what I expect for PA.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why is this poll in the 538 database, but not included in their PA polling average?

[SaneDemocrat]

Was Clinton +6 in their 2016 poll around the same timeframe (Oct 20-26), but both the third-party vote and the level of undecideds was much higher.

Oct 20-26, 420 LV (ayy!)

Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 8%
Other/unsure 8%

Here's Muhlenberg's last PA poll taken before the 2016 election:

Oct 30-Nov 4, 405 LV

Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Other/unsure 9%

Education breakdown was much different

[Hammy]

Was Clinton +6 in their 2016 poll around the same timeframe (Oct 20-26), but both the third-party vote and the level of undecideds was much higher.

Oct 20-26, 420 LV (ayy!)

Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 8%
Other/unsure 8%

Here's Muhlenberg's last PA poll taken before the 2016 election:

Oct 30-Nov 4, 405 LV

Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Other/unsure 9%

Any poll with Biden over 50% where they under-polled both candidates last time is a good result for Biden.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Muhlenberg College on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 51%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details