Is the Trump campaign even really contesting MI anymore? They've pulled out of direct advertising in the state and I don't see any big rallies scheduled in the state.
Trump's easiest path to re-election is to holding all the sunbelt states (FL, GA, NC, TX, AZ) and winning PA. This gets him to 280 electoral votes (279 if he loses NE-1).
Him not contesting Michigan would be ridiculous. Given how gone Arizona is for the Republicans (the state is MORE urban then Oregon and full of educated white suburbanites). The same shifts going on in Michigan for Biden (if he's ahead there) would be going on in Pennsylvania.
There is fair reason to believe PA is an easier lift. Part of Appalachia extends into it and that has had a more robust R trend than other northern rural areas.
