Rate Hamilton County Ohio

[Calthrina950]

Ok, I live half in Cincinnati/half in Naples, Fl.     Grew up in Cincy...always been conservative.   It has been a slow move to the D column.  

For perspective it only went D+5 for Obama in 2012 and then went D+10 for Hillary
I expect D+15 this year.  This is in comparison to Columbus and Cleveland that will go D+30

Quite white catholic conservative here.....  soooo much less diverse than Columbus.

Both Franklin County and Hamilton are pretty similar, Hamilton is a bit more white but more black also while Franklin has a few Hispanics/Asians tossed .

Its rather the types of whites that make the difference
Anyway here are what I would reasonably quantify as the 4 regions of Hamilton County






District 2 are the actual borders of Cincinatti +10k enclave towns within the actual city itself.  It is very Democratic at 75% D . Its not super racially polarized although whites are probably only tilting Democratic here as it is 40% black by CVAP in 2018

District 3 are the northern suburbs. These are D trending racially mixed suburbs that are spillover from the actual city itself. Not as D due to much more conservative whites although nearly as black at 35% black and is 60%D and 40% R. Do not know the actual Clinton numbers based on my definition.

  The Eastern portion of the county  are the UMC suburbs including areas like Blue Ash which was swingy and narrowly voted for Clinton or deeper red areas like Indian Hill. Overall very white area and ancestrally Republican but trending D quite hardly. Overall had a 40D-60R composite score. Is obviously very affluent with areas like Indian Hill scoring the highest in Ohio by some measures. Also is almost uniformly white at 88% white by CVAP. Whites here do vote pretty similar to the Purple area its just there aren't enough minorities here. However if we go by actual population and not CVAP there is a small amount of Asians within the county at 6% who are only 3% by CVAP meaning their voting effect is pretty small.


The final portion of the county is the Western part and basically what still keeps the county looking close to a swing county. It is incredibly white at 94% CVAP with no Asians either. A bit of German Catholics who used to live in the city proper a few decades ago but got pushed West due to either gentrification or are part of "white flight". Also incredibly Republican at 75% 2 party and Trump did even better than Romney here approaching nearly 80% of the two party vote which shows how Republican the area is.


Overall this seems like a good write-up proper of Hamilton County, if any posters have anything to add feel free and yes Cincinatti has that weird arm sticking out to the West. It is obviously a Safe D county at a presidential level, although this county is not overwhelmingly so and may still seem relatively close.

An excellent post, man. Though I'm not sure what you meant by your contradictory sounding last sentence. Bottom line, Hamilton County will vote far more democratic than the rest of Ohio. It would require a massive Landslide even at the state office level for it to vote Republican.

2016 demonstrated this. As I'm sure you're aware, Rob Portman won Hamilton County by 12% while crushing Ted Strickland by 21% statewide.

[Suburbia]

Lived there for 14 months and couldn't get away soon enough. Horrible county.

Likely-to-Safe D, though

What's so bad about Hamilton, OH?

[Suburbia]

Likely D despite the Covington issue, the Joe Burrow thing and some Cincinnati Reds players who support Trump (Paul O'Neill)