Rate Hamilton County Ohio

[holtridge]

?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama won Hamilton County, if Biden is doing well in TX, he will win OH and IA due to Ernst losing and Cornyn winning

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Lived there for 14 months and couldn't get away soon enough. Horrible county.

Likely-to-Safe D, though

[morgieb]

Yeah an urban county that Obama (both times!) and Hillary won with a majority of the vote is clearly gonna go R.

[Hope For A New Era]

Weirdly R for an urban county. Still Safe D though.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Weirdly R for an urban county. Still Safe D though.

The western parts of town strongly resemble the WI WOW counties in culture, ethnicity, and political thought. Lots of German Catholics.

[Roll Roons]

Weirdly R for an urban county. Still Safe D though.

Yeah. Along with San Diego and Indy, it's always been one of the most conservative metro areas outside the South.

[Flabuckeye]

Ok, I live half in Cincinnati/half in Naples, Fl.     Grew up in Cincy...always been conservative.   It has been a slow move to the D column. 

For perspective it only went D+5 for Obama in 2012 and then went D+10 for Hillary
I expect D+15 this year.  This is in comparison to Columbus and Cleveland that will go D+30

Quite white catholic conservative here.....  soooo much less diverse than Columbus.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Weirdly R for an urban county. Still Safe D though.

Yeah. Along with San Diego and Indy, it's always been one of the most conservative metro areas outside the South.

A couple of things:

1. In 1970, Indianapolis merged with almost all of Marion County, including some very white, suburban areas.

2. The wealthier white areas in Indy have shifted dramatically to the left. In last year's city-county council elections, Republicans were absolutely slaughtered. Other than the WWC parts of the county (Parts of Speedway and Beech Grove), Marion is solidly liberal.

2008: +28.4% Obama
2012: +22.2% Obama
2016: +22.5% Clinton

I wouldn't be shocked if Biden wins Marion by 30 points. It's still to the right of comparable midwestern urban counties like Cuyahoga, OH and Milwaukee, WI, but to the left of St. Louis, MO.

San Diego County, by comparison:

2008: +10.2% Obama
2012: +7.6% Obama
2016: +19.7% Clinton (trending left for similar reasons Marion, IN is trending left)

[lfromnj]

Weirdly R for an urban county. Still Safe D though.

The western parts of town strongly resemble the WI WOW counties in culture, ethnicity, and political thought. Lots of German Catholics.

The eastern part resembles Ozaukee and Waukesha with dem trending but still deep red areas.The western portion is even more Republican than Washington. Even Forsyth County is more D than Western Hamilton. If Western Hamilton was a county the only suburban/exurban County thats more R would be Livingston Parish Louisiana

[Flabuckeye]

Weirdly R for an urban county. Still Safe D though.

The western parts of town strongly resemble the WI WOW counties in culture, ethnicity, and political thought. Lots of German Catholics.

The eastern part resembles Ozaukee and Waukesha with dem trending but still deep red areas.The western portion is even more Republican than Washington. Even Forsyth County is more D than Western Hamilton. If Western Hamilton was a county the only suburban/exurban County thats more R would be Livingston Parish Louisiana

I agree with this take.  West Cincinnati is Working class/Trump Central,   East Cincinnati is Traditional/affluent Republican.  The entire middle and downtown strong D

[MATTROSE94]

Lived there for 14 months and couldn't get away soon enough. Horrible county.

Likely-to-Safe D, though

I drove through that area on a trip almost five years ago and it seemed to be an alright area that wasn’t really anything special compared to other cities. The only place that I stopped at while driving through Cincinnati was a A&W restaurant to get a pretty mediocre hamburger meal lol. I also noticed a fair amount of Trump signs there (it was around the same time that Donald Trump won the Indiana primary that I was in the Cincinnati area), which is unusual for a somewhat large city.

[H. Ross Peron]

Lived there for 14 months and couldn't get away soon enough. Horrible county.

Likely-to-Safe D, though

I drove through that area on a trip almost five years ago and it seemed to be an alright area that wasn’t really anything special compared to other cities. The only place that I stopped at while driving through Cincinnati was a A&W restaurant to get a pretty mediocre hamburger meal lol. I also noticed a fair amount of Trump signs there (it was around the same time that Donald Trump won the Indiana primary that I was in the Cincinnati area), which is unusual for a somewhat large city.

I want to try Cincinnati Chili. I might add Cincinnati was the only large city that voted for Thomas Dewey over FDR in 1944 so it has a very long Republican tradition. In addition to the German Catholics, is there any Southern influence in the population given its geographic position? Does it have a higher proportion of culturally Southern evangelical whites compared to most Midwestern cities?

[TML]

The last time Republicans won this county without winning statewide was in 2006, and the last time they won it while winning narrowly statewide was in 2010. Since then, they've only won this county during statewide blowouts.

Safe D.

[MATTROSE94]

Lived there for 14 months and couldn't get away soon enough. Horrible county.

Likely-to-Safe D, though

I drove through that area on a trip almost five years ago and it seemed to be an alright area that wasn’t really anything special compared to other cities. The only place that I stopped at while driving through Cincinnati was a A&W restaurant to get a pretty mediocre hamburger meal lol. I also noticed a fair amount of Trump signs there (it was around the same time that Donald Trump won the Indiana primary that I was in the Cincinnati area), which is unusual for a somewhat large city.

I want to try Cincinnati Chili. I might add Cincinnati was the only large city that voted for Thomas Dewey over FDR in 1944 so it has a very long Republican tradition. In addition to the German Catholics, is there any Southern influence in the population given its geographic position? Does it have a higher proportion of culturally Southern evangelical whites compared to most Midwestern cities?

I know that Cincinnati was heavily Republican prior to 2006/2008. I know that from 1832 to 1980, Catholics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in all elections except 1872, 1896, 1900, 1908, 1920, 1924, 1956, and 1972, but switched en mass to the Republican Party in 1980. If that were the case, then Cincinnati would have voted Democratic for most of its history, then switched over to the Republican Party in 1980. Maybe there were other factors that influenced Cincinnati’s Republican lean prior to 2006/2008?

[Alben Barkley]

Obviously Safe D, no one can seriously argue otherwise. Almost certainly will just keep trending D too.

[lfromnj]

Lived there for 14 months and couldn't get away soon enough. Horrible county.

Likely-to-Safe D, though

I drove through that area on a trip almost five years ago and it seemed to be an alright area that wasn’t really anything special compared to other cities. The only place that I stopped at while driving through Cincinnati was a A&W restaurant to get a pretty mediocre hamburger meal lol. I also noticed a fair amount of Trump signs there (it was around the same time that Donald Trump won the Indiana primary that I was in the Cincinnati area), which is unusual for a somewhat large city.

I want to try Cincinnati Chili. I might add Cincinnati was the only large city that voted for Thomas Dewey over FDR in 1944 so it has a very long Republican tradition. In addition to the German Catholics, is there any Southern influence in the population given its geographic position? Does it have a higher proportion of culturally Southern evangelical whites compared to most Midwestern cities?

Its the opposite, Cincinatti was so Republican, often as a reaction to being so close to the South. It was a major hub of the underground railroad and its black population had a strong history of voting Republican all the way upto 08 really. The German immigrant population supported the Republicans. Although it did have Southern influence it was mostly a Yankee city.

[Badger]

Ok, I live half in Cincinnati/half in Naples, Fl.     Grew up in Cincy...always been conservative.   It has been a slow move to the D column. 

For perspective it only went D+5 for Obama in 2012 and then went D+10 for Hillary
I expect D+15 this year.  This is in comparison to Columbus and Cleveland that will go D+30

Quite white catholic conservative here.....  soooo much less diverse than Columbus.

Absolutely correct. Conservative white Catholics of German descent is a Hallmark of pretty much the Western quarter of Ohio. However, as noted the county is Shifting leftward rapidly, albeit not at such a Breakneck speed as Franklin County.

Safe d

[Badger]

Lived there for 14 months and couldn't get away soon enough. Horrible county.

Likely-to-Safe D, though

I drove through that area on a trip almost five years ago and it seemed to be an alright area that wasn’t really anything special compared to other cities. The only place that I stopped at while driving through Cincinnati was a A&W restaurant to get a pretty mediocre hamburger meal lol. I also noticed a fair amount of Trump signs there (it was around the same time that Donald Trump won the Indiana primary that I was in the Cincinnati area), which is unusual for a somewhat large city.

I want to try Cincinnati Chili. I might add Cincinnati was the only large city that voted for Thomas Dewey over FDR in 1944 so it has a very long Republican tradition. In addition to the German Catholics, is there any Southern influence in the population given its geographic position? Does it have a higher proportion of culturally Southern evangelical whites compared to most Midwestern cities?

1. Cincinnati chili is pretty good. I mean, it's chili and spaghetti, so it's tough to go wrong. Had some at home the other night. Nevertheless, it's not all that and a bag of chips to write home about.

Two. Yea, Columbus also had a long Republican history. However like Cincinnati that has totally evaporated over the past 15 to 20 years.

Free. There are some definite Southern / Appalachian influence in Cincinnati. However it's not limited just to they're on the Ohio River, but extends throughout much of the Southern half of the state. A friend of mine once wryly but accurately noted the real geographical borderline between the North and South isn't the Mason-Dixon line, but I 70.

[Alben Barkley]

I have been to Cincinnati many times. I gotta say, the chili is highly overrated. In fact, the city as a whole is "meh" to me. I prefer Lexington and Louisville.

[Badger]

The last time Republicans won this county without winning statewide was in 2006, and the last time they won it while winning narrowly statewide was in 2010. Since then, they've only won this county during statewide blowouts.

Safe D.

And fwiw, even in 2006 Republicans won there only by the skin of their teeth with a Hamilton County candidate on the ticket for governor ( Ken Blackwell)

[lfromnj]

The last time Republicans won this county without winning statewide was in 2006, and the last time they won it while winning narrowly statewide was in 2010. Since then, they've only won this county during statewide blowouts.

Safe D.

And fwiw, even in 2006 Republicans won there only by the skin of their teeth with a Hamilton County candidate on the ticket for governor ( Ken Blackwell)

I mean the dude lost Ohio by 24 points and even lost Delaware county.

[Badger]

The last time Republicans won this county without winning statewide was in 2006, and the last time they won it while winning narrowly statewide was in 2010. Since then, they've only won this county during statewide blowouts.

Safe D.

And fwiw, even in 2006 Republicans won there only by the skin of their teeth with a Hamilton County candidate on the ticket for governor ( Ken Blackwell)

I mean the dude lost Ohio by 24 points and even lost Delaware county.

True dat.

(sigh) good times

[lfromnj]

Ok, I live half in Cincinnati/half in Naples, Fl.     Grew up in Cincy...always been conservative.   It has been a slow move to the D column.  

For perspective it only went D+5 for Obama in 2012 and then went D+10 for Hillary
I expect D+15 this year.  This is in comparison to Columbus and Cleveland that will go D+30

Quite white catholic conservative here.....  soooo much less diverse than Columbus.

Both Franklin County and Hamilton are pretty similar, Hamilton is a bit more white but more black also while Franklin has a few Hispanics/Asians tossed .

Its rather the types of whites that make the difference
Anyway here are what I would reasonably quantify as the 4 regions of Hamilton County






District 2 are the actual borders of Cincinatti +10k enclave towns within the actual city itself.  It is very Democratic at 75% D . Its not super racially polarized although whites are probably only tilting Democratic here as it is 40% black by CVAP in 2018

District 3 are the northern suburbs. These are D trending racially mixed suburbs that are spillover from the actual city itself. Not as D due to much more conservative whites although nearly as black at 35% black and is 60%D and 40% R. Do not know the actual Clinton numbers based on my definition.

  The Eastern portion of the county  are the UMC suburbs including areas like Blue Ash which was swingy and narrowly voted for Clinton or deeper red areas like Indian Hill. Overall very white area and ancestrally Republican but trending D quite hardly. Overall had a 40D-60R composite score. Is obviously very affluent with areas like Indian Hill scoring the highest in Ohio by some measures. Also is almost uniformly white at 88% white by CVAP. Whites here do vote pretty similar to the Purple area its just there aren't enough minorities here. However if we go by actual population and not CVAP there is a small amount of Asians within the county at 6% who are only 3% by CVAP meaning their voting effect is pretty small.


The final portion of the county is the Western part and basically what still keeps the county looking close to a swing county. It is incredibly white at 94% CVAP with no Asians either. A bit of German Catholics who used to live in the city proper a few decades ago but got pushed West due to either gentrification or are part of "white flight". Also incredibly Republican at 75% 2 party and Trump did even better than Romney here approaching nearly 80% of the two party vote which shows how Republican the area is.


Overall this seems like a good write-up proper of Hamilton County, if any posters have anything to add feel free and yes Cincinatti has that weird arm sticking out to the West. It is obviously a Safe D county at a presidential level, although this county is not overwhelmingly so and may still seem relatively close.

[Badger]

Ok, I live half in Cincinnati/half in Naples, Fl.     Grew up in Cincy...always been conservative.   It has been a slow move to the D column.  

For perspective it only went D+5 for Obama in 2012 and then went D+10 for Hillary
I expect D+15 this year.  This is in comparison to Columbus and Cleveland that will go D+30

Quite white catholic conservative here.....  soooo much less diverse than Columbus.

Both Franklin County and Hamilton are pretty similar, Hamilton is a bit more white but more black also while Franklin has a few Hispanics/Asians tossed .

Its rather the types of whites that make the difference
Anyway here are what I would reasonably quantify as the 4 regions of Hamilton County






District 2 are the actual borders of Cincinatti +10k enclave towns within the actual city itself.  It is very Democratic at 75% D . Its not super racially polarized although whites are probably only tilting Democratic here as it is 40% black by CVAP in 2018

District 3 are the northern suburbs. These are D trending racially mixed suburbs that are spillover from the actual city itself. Not as D due to much more conservative whites although nearly as black at 35% black and is 60%D and 40% R. Do not know the actual Clinton numbers based on my definition.

  The Eastern portion of the county  are the UMC suburbs including areas like Blue Ash which was swingy and narrowly voted for Clinton or deeper red areas like Indian Hill. Overall very white area and ancestrally Republican but trending D quite hardly. Overall had a 40D-60R composite score. Is obviously very affluent with areas like Indian Hill scoring the highest in Ohio by some measures. Also is almost uniformly white at 88% white by CVAP. Whites here do vote pretty similar to the Purple area its just there aren't enough minorities here. However if we go by actual population and not CVAP there is a small amount of Asians within the county at 6% who are only 3% by CVAP meaning their voting effect is pretty small.


The final portion of the county is the Western part and basically what still keeps the county looking close to a swing county. It is incredibly white at 94% CVAP with no Asians either. A bit of German Catholics who used to live in the city proper a few decades ago but got pushed West due to either gentrification or are part of "white flight". Also incredibly Republican at 75% 2 party and Trump did even better than Romney here approaching nearly 80% of the two party vote which shows how Republican the area is.


Overall this seems like a good write-up proper of Hamilton County, if any posters have anything to add feel free and yes Cincinatti has that weird arm sticking out to the West. It is obviously a Safe D county at a presidential level, although this county is not overwhelmingly so and may still seem relatively close.

An excellent post, man. Though I'm not sure what you meant by your contradictory sounding last sentence. Bottom line, Hamilton County will vote far more democratic than the rest of Ohio. It would require a massive Landslide even at the state office level for it to vote Republican.