IA - RMG Research: Tied

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1319409518313394178?s=21

[EJ24]

Yet another poll showing Iowa much closer than Trump would like it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/22/ia-toss-up-trump-47-biden-47/

MoE: 3.5%

Someone else 2%
Unsure 4%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Senate numbers? I honestly don’t care which way goes on the Presidential level, I’m more concerned about the senate seat

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Senate numbers? I honestly don’t care which way goes on the Presidential level, I’m more concerned about the senate seat

Coming tomorrow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Senate numbers? I honestly don’t care which way goes on the Presidential level, I’m more concerned about the senate seat

Coming tomorrow.

Thank you!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Strong Democratic turnout model:

Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Someone else 2%
Unsure 4%

Strong Republican turnout model:

Trump 49%
Biden 48%
Someone else 2%
Unsure 4%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Strong Democratic turnout model:

Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Someone else 2%
Unsure 4%

Strong Republican turnout model:

Trump 49%
Biden 48%
Someone else 2%
Unsure 4%

Huh, interesting. Opposite of the polls we got the other day wheee Biden did worse with higher turnout

[Progressive Pessimist]

Iowa really seems to have moved away from Trump. I was confident that it would be lean R all election, then it moved to tilt R, now it's basically a pure tossup.

Even if Biden doesn't succeed here though:

1. He doesn't really need the state.

2. It, and Ohio, were written off pretty early for Clinton back in 2016, even when she was winning at her peak, so for Biden to still have a chance here is an absolutely abysmal sign for Trump.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa President by RMG Research on 2020-10-21

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

Trump will probably still win here, but for all the "it's just 2016 all over again" folks, the polls in Iowa in 2016 were not showing a tie. Trump was clearly ahead and Clinton had basically abandoned the state by this point (going so far as to tell Obama not to campaign there).