If Trump pulls a miracle win in 2020, what will be the most commonly cited reason in hindsight?

[EJ24]

For example, some common reasons given about 2016 were the Comey letter and Hillary Clinton's campaign ignoring Wisconsin.

[woodley park]

No vote suppression option?

[Hammy]

Voter suppression is the only correct answer.

[GP270watch]

You guys always put a bunch of reasons except the most obvious answer, white people.

[EJ24]

Voter suppression is the only correct answer.

The assumption in this question is that he won fairly.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Some combination of voter suppression and/or SCOTUS stealing the election.

[vitoNova]

People who vote primarily based on white identity politics, and do not want to divulge to strangers over the phone their rationale.  

[Xing]

People will blame the group of people they dislike the most.

[Inmate Trump]

Write in: Supreme Court ruling in Trump's favor.

-or-

Tossing mail-in ballots.

Or some combination of the two.

[SaneDemocrat]

2 and 6 are possible.Remember, there are millions of whites without a college degree in the Midwest who didn’t show up in 2016.Much more than college whites and non-whites combined.

[7,052,770]

If it's a legitimate win, people will just have to accept that Trump's attitude and bigotries are more popular we realize.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I mean it depends how he won.  You're basically asking us to predict which Trump-surprise-win scenario is most likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

0 chance that Trump is gonna pull it out, I here is no second term agenda, he promised a vaccine by election day and he didn't deliver

The Rs can only minimize their losses

[ShamDam]

In all likelihood, if he wins, it's because something major happens in the next 12 days that we can't account for yet.

If the election were held today and he won, it truly means the polls were straight up wrong. (Unlike 2016, when his victory seemed unlikely but was in a reasonable margin of error).

Or perhaps that Democrats racked up an unlikely combo of landslide victories in safe states and TONS of near-misses in swing states, so that Biden wins the popular vote by a huge margin but Trump ekes out a stunningly close victory in like 10 states.

[Lief 🗽]

The only way Trump wins at this point is to steal the election.

[Adem 45]

Voter suppression is the only correct answer.

The assumption in this question is that he won fairly.

Still, voter suppression would likely be a pretty common reason given.

[Badger]

Multiple Republican legislatures in States Biden narrowly won ginning up phony claims of widespread voter fraud to certify Trump's electors as having been duly elected, and the right-wing Supreme Court rubber-stamping those decisions as the perogative of said legislatures.

[Badger]

In all likelihood, if he wins, it's because something major happens in the next 12 days that we can't account for yet.

If the election were held today and he won, it truly means the polls were straight up wrong. (Unlike 2016, when his victory seemed unlikely but was in a reasonable margin of error).

Or perhaps that Democrats racked up an unlikely combo of landslide victories in safe states and TONS of near-misses in swing states, so that Biden wins the popular vote by a huge margin but Trump ekes out a stunningly close victory in like 10 states.

The prospect of that last scenario genuinely gave me butterflies in my stomach just now. The good news, though, is the state polls show Biden comfortably ahead you're more than enough states to reach 270. He would have to actively lose support during the next week and a half for that doomsday scenario to occur.

God does the Electoral College suck.

[Meclazine for Israel]

CNN.

More specifically, Anderson Cooper.

Total rejection of the socialist ideal.

[KaiserDave]

Rigging/voter suppression

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters are turned off of politics, the stimulus that was promised hasn't been delivered. I am watching Philly NFL game, not the debate, Trump is down 10 anyways and I already voted, made my endorsements and predictions

[kwabbit]

I think people are underrating the possibility of a 'shy' COVID backlash vote. There is a difference between people's stated preferred COVID policy and their actual behavior, and perhaps in a ballot booth they just decide " It" and choose Trump instead of Biden if it means less COVID lockdowns. Not that this is likely, but I think a COVID lockdown backlash is more likely than a backlash against the BLM protests.

Either way, I think the media will just blame it on the polls. Although maybe this time they'll actually listen to the polls if they indicate tightening instead of pretending it was mid-October still.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think people are underrating the possibility of a 'shy' COVID backlash vote. There is a difference between people's stated preferred COVID policy and their actual behavior, and perhaps in a ballot booth they just decide " It" and choose Trump instead of Biden if it means less COVID lockdowns. Not that this is likely, but I think a COVID lockdown backlash is more likely than a backlash against the BLM protests.

Either way, I think the media will just blame it on the polls. Although maybe this time they'll actually listen to the polls if they indicate tightening instead of pretending it was mid-October still.

I remember hearing how lockdowns are somewhat popular back in the Spring (not now) and I think Biden saying he wants a mask mandate is a lot more tamer than a lockdown. So I do not think you'l see that.

I think a lot of people will look to Trump's improvements among Black and Hispanic voters than anything else.

[Ferguson97]

At this point, voter suppression is the only way he can win.

[Fusternino]

Probably Trump's ground game, juicing turnout among non-college whites and his apparent gains with black and Hispanic men actually being real.