MT - NBC MT/Strategies 360: Gianforte +7

[VARep]

Gianforte 48%
Cooney 41%

https://nbcmontana.com/news/beyond-the-podium/nbc-montanastrategies-360-poll-shows-extremely-tight-montana-races

[Xing]

Looking like Cooney needs a miracle to win. I think most Democrats outside of MT would prefer a Gianforte/Bullock split to a Cooney/Daines split, but still, dang, Cooney is really blowing this big time.

[Pollster]

Important to note that, if Gianforte wins as appears likely, Republicans will have unified control of Montana government for the first time in I believe 15 years. The state could be poised for major policy changes, quickly enacted in a short amount of time.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looking like Cooney needs a miracle to win. I think most Democrats outside of MT would prefer a Gianforte/Bullock split to a Cooney/Daines split, but still, dang, Cooney is really blowing this big time.

This is a much more surmountable +7% lead than one where a candidate is already over 50%, especially in a non-federal race where there's more flexibility. This poll alone suggests the race is still just about lean R (so competitive) and not entirely out of Cooney's control.

Conducted by Strategies 360
October 15-20
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Bishop (L) 4%
Undecided 7%

They also polled the Superintended of Public Instruction Race, in which the Democrat is ahead.

Melissa Romano (D) 41%
Elsie Arntzen (R-inc.) 39%
Leatherbarrow (L) 5%
Undecided 16%

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican.

Is Cooney such a bad candidate? I kinda like him. I don't get why New Jersey carpetbagger and bodyslammer Gianforte is doing so well.

[Canis]

Lean Gianforte closer to Likely than Tilt

[KaiserDave]

Horrible, just horrible.

[MT Treasurer]

Knowing how intense/pathological their hatred of the man is, the Democrats' reaction to a Gianforte win (with a beautiful Republican trifecta) will truly be a sight to behold even if Trump loses -- the ultimate ‘trigger the libs’ race on the ballot this year. It’ll be great to finally see MT under complete Republican control without a governor who reflexively makes use of his veto pen, especially if there’s a Democratic trifecta nationally. Unlike Racicot, Gianforte is a reliable conservative on virtually every major issue.

It should also be noted that the Cooney campaign was just hit with a second ethics violation, which Republicans were quick to turn another ad. There won’t be a 6-point gap between the Senate race and this race (Daines and Gianforte are both at 48% here, and I’m pretty sure the undecideds in this race lean Democratic), but this is not the kind of story Cooney needs as voting is already underway. A large part of Cooney's campaign just reinforced the image Gianforte has painted of him throughout the campaign (negative partisan career politician), and whether people want to admit it or not, Gianforte has been very effective as a campaigner. My final prediction (I’ll post a county map soon) is Gianforte by 4 points, give or take a point.

Lean Republican.

Is Cooney such a bad candidate? I kinda like him. I don't get why New Jersey carpetbagger and bodyslammer Gianforte is doing so well.

The fact that Cooney thinks this is a winning issue for him tells you all you need to know about the state/quality of his campaign.

[Mr. Kanye West]

MT Gov is gone.

[Jayde]

Yawn. The democrats have controlled this office for 16 years, voters are probably ready for a change by now.

[DTC]

Knowing how intense/pathological their hatred of the man is, the Democrats' reaction to a Gianforte win (with a beautiful Republican trifecta) will truly be a sight to behold even if Trump loses -- the ultimate ‘trigger the libs’ race on the ballot this year. It’ll be great to finally see MT under complete Republican control without a governor who reflexively makes use of his veto pen, especially if there’s a Democratic trifecta nationally. Unlike Racicot, Gianforte is a reliable conservative on virtually every major issue.

No one outside of Montana cares about the Montana Governor race. Sorry buddy, but you're not going to experience much schadenfreude over a governor election in a state with less than one and a half million people

[Mr. Kanye West]

Knowing how intense/pathological their hatred of the man is, the Democrats' reaction to a Gianforte win (with a beautiful Republican trifecta) will truly be a sight to behold even if Trump loses -- the ultimate ‘trigger the libs’ race on the ballot this year. It’ll be great to finally see MT under complete Republican control without a governor who reflexively makes use of his veto pen, especially if there’s a Democratic trifecta nationally. Unlike Racicot, Gianforte is a reliable conservative on virtually every major issue.

It should also be noted that the Cooney campaign was just hit with a second ethics violation, which Republicans were quick to turn another ad. There won’t be a 6-point gap between the Senate race and this race (Daines and Gianforte are both at 48% here, and I’m pretty sure the undecideds in this race lean Democratic), but this is not the kind of story Cooney needs as voting is already underway. A large part of Cooney's campaign just reinforced the image Gianforte has painted of him throughout the campaign (negative partisan career politician), and whether people want to admit it or not, Gianforte has been very effective as a campaigner. My final prediction (I’ll post a county map soon) is Gianforte by 4 points, give or take a point.

Lean Republican.

Is Cooney such a bad candidate? I kinda like him. I don't get why New Jersey carpetbagger and bodyslammer Gianforte is doing so well.

The fact that Cooney thinks this is a winning issue for him tells you all you need to know about the state/quality of his campaign.

It's not just that's it's the word fracking is the worst nightmare for Rs as we PA, MI, VA, WI becomes more D, AK, MT and TX become R ad we weed ourselves off of oil and renewable energy as in electric cars. That's why Trump is doing poorly, he can't replicate the blue wall he crashed in 2016.

D's will allow some fracking enough to win PA but Keystone Pipeline is out when Biden comes and Cooney was for that Pipeline. Cali is banning all gas cars in the future and only electric vehicles

[Senator Scott, PPT]

Any abortion restrictions this Republican trifecta rams through will be met with a vengeance.

[Pollster]

Any abortion restrictions this Republican trifecta rams through will be met with a vengeance.

Montana in the 2020's could be similar to Kansas in the 2010's: state accustomed to centrist/center left executives with GOP-dominated legislatures elects a staunch conservative governor who passes reactionary policies that tarnish the party's brand at the local level.

[Clinton/Kaine/ Northam/ Biden/Warner voter for Youngkin]

Any abortion restrictions this Republican trifecta rams through will be met with a vengeance.

Montana in the 2020's could be similar to Kansas in the 2010's: state accustomed to centrist/center left executives with GOP-dominated legislatures elects a staunch conservative governor who passes reactionary policies that tarnish the party's brand at the local level.

To build off of this point, the MT Democratic Party also has a very strong infrastructure already built in (much stronger than what the KS Dems have), so the MT GOP would be in a much bigger hole than the KS GOP was in, if this actually happens.

[Lief 🐋]

New Poll: Montana Governor by Strategies 360 on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 41%, R: 48%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details