MT - NBC MT/Strategies 360: Daines +1 (SEN), TIE (House)
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  MT - NBC MT/Strategies 360: Daines +1 (SEN), TIE (House)
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Author Topic: MT - NBC MT/Strategies 360: Daines +1 (SEN), TIE (House)  (Read 712 times)
VARep
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« on: October 22, 2020, 01:04:51 PM »
« edited: October 22, 2020, 02:43:12 PM by Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds »

Daines 48%
Bullock 47%

Rosendale 46%
Williams 46%

https://nbcmontana.com/news/beyond-the-podium/nbc-montanastrategies-360-poll-shows-extremely-tight-montana-races
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 01:05:11 PM »

Tossup.
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2020, 01:05:34 PM »

Gonna be a close one!
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2020, 01:06:28 PM »

Safe R.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2020, 01:07:27 PM »


Any race where polling regularly goes back and forth is definitely not safe
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redjohn
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 01:08:03 PM »

Tossup. Could see this going either way and wouldn't be surprised by either result.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 01:09:22 PM »

As far as Senate races go, the purest tossup in the country.
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Canis
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 01:11:12 PM »

I believe in Bullock
of the lean r senate seats (MT,KS,GA,GA-Special,SC,AK) I think at least 2 will go to the dems on election night and MT will be one of the 2 Bullock typically overpreforms polls and the trend of this race has been going in Bullocks favor
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 01:12:02 PM »

October 15-20
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Senate
Undecided 5%

House
Undecided 8%
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prag_prog
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 01:12:23 PM »

Since July, there have been 12 Montana Sen polls. Bullock has led in 4 of them and Daines in 7 of them. Emerson is the only one who showed a lead >4 points for either candidate. Every other pollster had this within 3 point range.
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prag_prog
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 01:20:39 PM »

We also have a NYT/Siena Montana poll coming tomorrow.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 01:21:56 PM »

Safe Steve.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 01:25:44 PM »

Gonna be mad if we win the House seat but not the Senate seat.
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Harris/Shalala 2024
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 01:34:36 PM »

I feel like if it comes down to turnout, Bullock wins.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 01:36:47 PM »

This is gonna be close
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 01:37:56 PM »

I feel like if it comes down to turnout, Bullock wins.

Good news is that the early vote numbers in MT have been strong
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Dr. Frankenstein
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 01:53:16 PM »


Any race where polling regularly goes back and forth is definitely not safe

You should simply ignore the obvious troll.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 02:12:06 PM »


Any race where polling regularly goes back and forth is definitely not safe

We haven't seen any ME polls and we know about ME2 irregularities. Sir Woodbury is looking at the Gov race which is Safe R, but both Bullocks LT Govs didn't have pragmatic appeal Walsh or Cooney


Everyone knows Bidens wants to reduce fracking but voters don't know Cooney he says to keep it but not sure. In MT it's an oil state
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 03:40:14 PM »

I donít know man, I think we need to annoy the last three Montanans who havenít been contacted by a pollster yet so a few kids on Talk Elections Dot Org can get two or three more polls showing the race within 2 points. I donít think thereís ever been as much of a campaign-related onslaught on a small state as there was in MT from 2011 to 2020 (although SD from 2001 to 2004 probably comes close).

Anyway, while it might take a while before we get a projection in this race, weíll get a good general sense of where the race is headed fairly early on election night. Yellowstone County will be the first big indicator since it usually reports before Gallatin, so watch how wide Daines' margin is there (Rosendale won it by 3.5, which isnít enough for a Republican these days) and pay attention to Ďbellwetherí Lake in the West (which has been very close to the statewide result in recent elections) and Cascade County (Great Falls + outlying areas), which Daines needs to flip or at least keep very close (i.e., no worse than a 1-point loss). Iíd feel much better about a win in Cascade than even a narrow loss there since this is one of the more swingy urban/-ish (by MT standards) areas which isnít trending Democratic -- if Daines canít even make up ground here, itís a very bad sign for him.

2018 -> 2020 swings wonít be uniform, but unless Daines can do two of the following, there is no path to victory for him: (a) win Yellowstone County by at least 7 points; (b) reduce the Democratic margin in Gallatin from D+21 to D+15 and in Missoula from D+37 to D+32 while keeping Cascade County very close or flipping it; (c) outperform Rosendale by 5+ points in the vast majority of the rural/small-town counties in the central and eastern part of the state. Other areas will be interesting too but are a little more difficult to extrapolate to the statewide trend, so thatís basically where the race will be decided. If previous patterns of election night reporting continue and arenít upended by the pandemic/all-mail voting, Daines will need to be ahead by at least 5 points when 80-85% of the vote is in to be secure (both Rosendale 2018 and Gianforte 2016 were actually ahead at that point in the night in their respective races, so Republicans shouldnít get too excited if Daines is only leading by 3 points or so in the wee hours).
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 06:01:13 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 06:04:15 PM by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

This race is giving me the most anxiety by far (yes, including the presidency). As indyrep said, MT has a heavy R counting bias, so this one will be a nail biter all the way
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2020, 06:02:22 PM »

I donít know man, I think we need to annoy the last three Montanans who havenít been contacted by a pollster yet so a few kids on Talk Elections Dot Org can get two or three more polls showing the race within 2 points. I donít think thereís ever been as much of a campaign-related onslaught on a small state as there was in MT from 2011 to 2020 (although SD from 2001 to 2004 probably comes close).

Anyway, while it might take a while before we get a projection in this race, weíll get a good general sense of where the race is headed fairly early on election night. Yellowstone County will be the first big indicator since it usually reports before Gallatin, so watch how wide Daines' margin is there (Rosendale won it by 3.5, which isnít enough for a Republican these days) and pay attention to Ďbellwetherí Lake in the West (which has been very close to the statewide result in recent elections) and Cascade County (Great Falls + outlying areas), which Daines needs to flip or at least keep very close (i.e., no worse than a 1-point loss). Iíd feel much better about a win in Cascade than even a narrow loss there since this is one of the more swingy urban/-ish (by MT standards) areas which isnít trending Democratic -- if Daines canít even make up ground here, itís a very bad sign for him.

2018 -> 2020 swings wonít be uniform, but unless Daines can do two of the following, there is no path to victory for him: (a) win Yellowstone County by at least 7 points; (b) reduce the Democratic margin in Gallatin from D+21 to D+15 and in Missoula from D+37 to D+32 while keeping Cascade County very close or flipping it; (c) outperform Rosendale by 5+ points in the vast majority of the rural/small-town counties in the central and eastern part of the state. Other areas will be interesting too but are a little more difficult to extrapolate to the statewide trend, so thatís basically where the race will be decided. If previous patterns of election night reporting continue and arenít upended by the pandemic/all-mail voting, Daines will need to be ahead by at least 5 points when 80-85% of the vote is in to be secure (both Rosendale 2018 and Gianforte 2016 were actually ahead at that point in the night in their respective races, so Republicans shouldnít get too excited if Daines is only leading by 3 points or so in the wee hours).

Thank you for all the good barometers
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2020, 06:02:42 PM »

Gonna be mad if we win the House seat but not the Senate seat.

I will continue never understanding ticket-splitters if that's the case.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2020, 07:51:41 PM »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Strategies 360 on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2020, 11:30:36 AM »

Gonna be mad if we win the House seat but not the Senate seat.

I will continue never understanding ticket-splitters if that's the case.
Maybe Matt Rosendale isn't bipartisantm enough for them
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