Virginia Q1: Redistricting Commision Amendment

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This is on the ballot in Virginia
https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Question_1,_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment_(2020)

Earlier this year, in the House of Delegates the majority of Democrats were opposed, but passed with a minority of Democrats and all Republicans.  In the Senate, it received strong bipartisan support.

As a reform, on the one hand, this process will keep either party from having complete control over redistricting.  On the other hand, the final decision will still be up to the legislature.   And one might wonder - what if no plan can be agreed upon?

How does the process described in this amendment compare to what other states have done?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The Virginia plan still allows for a lot more involvement by state legislators than other more truly independent redistricting commissions.  Half of the members are state legislators themselves, while the other half are citizens chosen by a panel of retired judges chosen from a longer list drawn up by state legislators.

The final map must still be voted on by the whole legislature, but it must be a straight up or down vote with no changes or amendments.  If a map fails, the commission can create new proposals up until a certain deadline, after which the State Supreme Court would draw the map. Given that the legislature is controlled by Democrats and the state court is mostly Republican appointees, I don’t think it will come to that.

This is probably the best Virginia could realistically hope for given our constitutional amendment process.  I’m supporting the measure as it is still better than the alternative.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The Virginia plan still allows for a lot more involvement by state legislators than other more truly independent redistricting commissions.  Half of the members are state legislators themselves, while the other half are citizens chosen by a panel of retired judges chosen from a longer list drawn up by state legislators.

The final map must still be voted on by the whole legislature, but it must be a straight up or down vote with no changes or amendments.  If a map fails, the commission can create new proposals up until a certain deadline, after which the State Supreme Court would draw the map. Given that the legislature is controlled by Democrats and the state court is mostly Republican appointees, I don’t think it will come to that.

This is probably the best Virginia could realistically hope for given our constitutional amendment process.  I’m supporting the measure as it is still better than the alternative.

I don't like the idea of the Court drawing the map, but I guess that sort of ends up being how it is anyway already.

[LtNOWIS]

Many Democrats are agitating against this amendment, because it will block them from implementing a Dem gerrymander. I can understand the sentiment.

"Turnabout is fair play, and it's not like the GOP is going to stop gerrymandering Texas and other states they can control. This sort of unilateral disarmament would be foolish."

But they're not making that sensible political argument, they're making the absurd case that voting for the amendment would just make gerrymandering worse. They're saying the Republicans on the commission would just sabotage the map drawing, and allow the state supreme court to draw the map. Because so many of the justices were appointed by the Republican legislature, they would just draw another Republican gerrymander.

Personally, this argument does not hold water for me. Even in these partisan times we live in, the appointed justices are going to behave like legal professionals, not politicians in robes. Especially since so many of them were non-controversial appointees who got near-unanimous support from the legislature.

You can't predict these things scientifically, but I think most voters will see the sensible-sounding language and vote yes. I certainly hope so, so we can be done with these awful district lines.

[One Term Floridian]

I'm voting No, but this will probably pass easily

[lfromnj]

Many Democrats are agitating against this amendment, because it will block them from implementing a Dem gerrymander. I can understand the sentiment.

"Turnabout is fair play, and it's not like the GOP is going to stop gerrymandering Texas and other states they can control. This sort of unilateral disarmament would be foolish."

But they're not making that sensible political argument, they're making the absurd case that voting for the amendment would just make gerrymandering worse. They're saying the Republicans on the commission would just sabotage the map drawing, and allow the state supreme court to draw the map. Because so many of the justices were appointed by the Republican legislature, they would just draw another Republican gerrymander.

Personally, this argument does not hold water for me. Even in these partisan times we live in, the appointed justices are going to behave like legal professionals, not politicians in robes. Especially since so many of them were non-controversial appointees who got near-unanimous support from the legislature.

You can't predict these things scientifically, but I think most voters will see the sensible-sounding language and vote yes. I certainly hope so, so we can be done with these awful district lines.

The Court will hardly draw a massive gerrymander, or anything ugly but a Republican leaning map would be expected. The best example I can give is PA 1st in Pennsylvania. This  was the only clean district in SEPA pre 2018. Both pre and post court map have it included all of Bucks county which barely voted for Clinton. Both maps also took a slice of Montgomery county for population purposes. The GOP map took it from the exurban portion at NE Montgomery county while the  court map took it from a more inner ring southern suburban portion. This changed the district by a few points. Neither was really a bad district, just pointing out what can happen.

IMO a GOP court map for VA for 2022 would result in Spanberger being knocked out of any seat.

[beaver2.0]

I don't trust the Democrats to make anything better if this is rejected and the move away from supporting this after last years elections just makes me back it more.

I don't think the amendment is perfect, but it's better than nothing.

[Frodo]

I already voted no on this amendment -I don't trust anything passed by Republicans, especially when it comes to redistricting. 

[lfromnj]

Here is the court map I could envision. Perhaps a touch too ugly in the VA beach area although the rest is quite compact and acceptable to the average voter, should still result in 6 Republicans most years and in a wave year, 5 districts voted for Corey !

[Frodo]

Voter approval of the redistricting commission amendment was overwhelming, with a clear two-thirds majority:

Voters approved the constitutional amendment on redistricting. Here’s what’s next.

Political redistricting ahead of Virginia’s 2021 elections will kick off soon under a transformed process, which voters approved this week through a constitutional amendment meant to curb gerrymandering.

Virginians overwhelmingly backed the amendment, which is poised to end the legislature’s sweeping control over legislative and congressional districts. It will shift map-drawing duties to a 16-member bipartisan commission of lawmakers and citizens and, if they deadlock, to the right-leaning Virginia Supreme Court.

The amendment, which appeared as Question 1 on Virginians’ ballots, had attracted the support of 66% of voters as of late Wednesday, with nearly all ballots counted.

Work to create the commission is expected to begin this month, but the actual map-drawing process could be put on hold until the summer, due to expected delays on population data from the federal government, prompted by the pandemic.

[S019]

Voter approval of the redistricting commission amendment was overwhelming, with a clear two-thirds majority:

Voters approved the constitutional amendment on redistricting. Here’s what’s next.

Political redistricting ahead of Virginia’s 2021 elections will kick off soon under a transformed process, which voters approved this week through a constitutional amendment meant to curb gerrymandering.

Virginians overwhelmingly backed the amendment, which is poised to end the legislature’s sweeping control over legislative and congressional districts. It will shift map-drawing duties to a 16-member bipartisan commission of lawmakers and citizens and, if they deadlock, to the right-leaning Virginia Supreme Court.

The amendment, which appeared as Question 1 on Virginians’ ballots, had attracted the support of 66% of voters as of late Wednesday, with nearly all ballots counted.

Work to create the commission is expected to begin this month, but the actual map-drawing process could be put on hold until the summer, due to expected delays on population data from the federal government, prompted by the pandemic.

An absolutely travesty, say goodbye to VA-07 in 2021

[GALeftist]

Voter approval of the redistricting commission amendment was overwhelming, with a clear two-thirds majority:

Voters approved the constitutional amendment on redistricting. Here’s what’s next.

Political redistricting ahead of Virginia’s 2021 elections will kick off soon under a transformed process, which voters approved this week through a constitutional amendment meant to curb gerrymandering.

Virginians overwhelmingly backed the amendment, which is poised to end the legislature’s sweeping control over legislative and congressional districts. It will shift map-drawing duties to a 16-member bipartisan commission of lawmakers and citizens and, if they deadlock, to the right-leaning Virginia Supreme Court.

The amendment, which appeared as Question 1 on Virginians’ ballots, had attracted the support of 66% of voters as of late Wednesday, with nearly all ballots counted.

Work to create the commission is expected to begin this month, but the actual map-drawing process could be put on hold until the summer, due to expected delays on population data from the federal government, prompted by the pandemic.

We really do do it to ourselves.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Voter approval of the redistricting commission amendment was overwhelming, with a clear two-thirds majority:

Voters approved the constitutional amendment on redistricting. Here’s what’s next.

Political redistricting ahead of Virginia’s 2021 elections will kick off soon under a transformed process, which voters approved this week through a constitutional amendment meant to curb gerrymandering.

Virginians overwhelmingly backed the amendment, which is poised to end the legislature’s sweeping control over legislative and congressional districts. It will shift map-drawing duties to a 16-member bipartisan commission of lawmakers and citizens and, if they deadlock, to the right-leaning Virginia Supreme Court.

The amendment, which appeared as Question 1 on Virginians’ ballots, had attracted the support of 66% of voters as of late Wednesday, with nearly all ballots counted.

Work to create the commission is expected to begin this month, but the actual map-drawing process could be put on hold until the summer, due to expected delays on population data from the federal government, prompted by the pandemic.

An absolutely travesty, say goodbye to VA-07 in 2021

?   That district was drawn by the court.

[Nyvin]

With Virginia Beach going Biden and the Richmond suburbs just getting more Dem, I don't see the real danger here with a commission.

If VA-4 is made an AA opportunity seat than the rest of the suburbs have to go somewhere and that's where Spanberger will run.   There's not much you can possibly do to make VA-2 safe R provided Virginia Beach is a dem county.

[lfromnj]

With Virginia Beach going Biden and the Richmond suburbs just getting more Dem, I don't see the real danger here with a commission.

If VA-4 is made an AA opportunity seat than the rest of the suburbs have to go somewhere and that's where Spanberger will run.   There's not much you can possibly do to make VA-2 safe R provided Virginia Beach is a dem county.

My map made it Trump +15.  Arguably Hanover county should be in VA07 anyway.

Do agree with VA02 of course

[Nyvin]

With Virginia Beach going Biden and the Richmond suburbs just getting more Dem, I don't see the real danger here with a commission.

If VA-4 is made an AA opportunity seat than the rest of the suburbs have to go somewhere and that's where Spanberger will run.   There's not much you can possibly do to make VA-2 safe R provided Virginia Beach is a dem county.

My map made it Trump +15.  Arguably Hanover county should be in VA07 anyway.

Do agree with VA02 of course

If Hanover goes into VA-7 then VA-1 becomes tossup,  it looks like Biden either won it or came within a point as it is right now.

The commission isn't going to draw some Republican gerrymander either.

[jamestroll]

With Virginia Beach going Biden and the Richmond suburbs just getting more Dem, I don't see the real danger here with a commission.

If VA-4 is made an AA opportunity seat than the rest of the suburbs have to go somewhere and that's where Spanberger will run.   There's not much you can possibly do to make VA-2 safe R provided Virginia Beach is a dem county.

My map made it Trump +15.  Arguably Hanover county should be in VA07 anyway.

Do agree with VA02 of course

If Hanover goes into VA-7 then VA-1 becomes tossup,  it looks like Biden either won it or came within a point as it is right now.

The commission isn't going to draw some Republican gerrymander either.

I do not get all the freak out about this amendment? Some people are evening as far as to say this amendment prevents any Democrat from winning statewide as well. Which is obviously not true.

[Former President tack50]

Here is the court map I could envision. Perhaps a touch too ugly in the VA beach area although the rest is quite compact and acceptable to the average voter, should still result in 6 Republicans most years and in a wave year, 5 districts voted for Corey !

Given VA-01 voted for Biden in this election (narrowly), any chance it ends up as a swing district in your map?

[Nyvin]

Seems kinda unlikely Democrats don't get a majority of seats in a state they won by around 10%,  I'm just not as concerned anymore about Virginia having the commission.

[lfromnj]

Here is the court map I could envision. Perhaps a touch too ugly in the VA beach area although the rest is quite compact and acceptable to the average voter, should still result in 6 Republicans most years and in a wave year, 5 districts voted for Corey !

Given VA-01 voted for Biden in this election (narrowly), any chance it ends up as a swing district in your map?

It didn't vote for Biden, it voted for Trump still, that was just an error and they included all of PWC's votes in VA 01.

It was Stewart +4.