NYT/Siena - KS: Trump +7
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  NYT/Siena - KS: Trump +7		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena - KS: Trump +7  (Read 2053 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« on: October 22, 2020, 12:03:54 PM »
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 12:04:36 PM »
Looks about right, and consistent with a double digit national lead for Biden.
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EJ24
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2020, 12:05:32 PM »
9% national lead for Biden confirmed.

Although I would love to see the demographic breakdown in this poll. Might have some pretty devastating results in there for Trump.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2020, 12:06:17 PM »
Damn, what happened with Bollier in the last month ?

Several polls have shown her falling behind, while a month ago it looked like she could produce an upset ...

Are more leftist Dem voters souring on her after finding out that she used to be a Republican until 2018 ?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2020, 12:07:10 PM »
Undecideds lean young and non-white.
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VAR
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 12:07:46 PM »
Trump approval: 51/45 (+6)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 52/44 (+8)
Biden: 44/52 (-8)
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Rand
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 12:08:03 PM »
B L O O D B A T H
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 12:08:30 PM »
That is a disastrously bad number for Trump, though obviously you have to wonder about the NYT's chronically high number of undecideds.
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redjohn
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 12:09:40 PM »
So can we expect a final result along the lines of Trump 53-Biden 45? Pretty disastrous for Trump.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 12:10:36 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 22, 2020, 12:06:17 PM
Damn, what happened with Bollier in the last month ?

Several polls have shown her falling behind, while a month ago it looked like she could produce an upset ...

Kansas is weird like that. The upset is still possible. Marshall was almost an upset - most polls showed a much closer primary, not the landslide Marshall win that actually happened.

Quote from: Tender Branson on October 22, 2020, 12:06:17 PM
Are more leftist Dem voters souring on her after finding out that she used to be a Republican until 2018 ?

Absolutely not. She's the catnip scenario, a former enemy who has "seen the light."
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redjohn
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 12:12:08 PM »
Clinton was in the mid-30s in KS in the final weeks of 2016. Biden is notably overperforming, and Trump is losing badly.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 12:16:52 PM »
Quote from: Beida on October 22, 2020, 12:12:08 PM
Clinton was in the mid-30s in KS in the final weeks of 2016. Biden is notably overperforming, and Trump is losing badly.

And Johnson was polling with anywhere from 8-10 percent of the vote (he captured a tad over 4.50% in the end).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 12:18:32 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 22, 2020, 12:06:17 PM
Damn, what happened with Bollier in the last month ?

Several polls have shown her falling behind, while a month ago it looked like she could produce an upset ...

Are more leftist Dem voters souring on her after finding out that she used to be a Republican until 2018 ?

... all we got with KS polls was mostly internals that showed a close race. Like this one does.

Undecideds lean young, nonwhite, and independent (all of which Bollier is winning by double digits), so this is a real race here.
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prag_prog
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 12:27:47 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on October 22, 2020, 12:08:30 PM
That is a disastrously bad number for Trump, though obviously you have to wonder about the NYT's chronically high number of undecideds.
Undecideds aren't particularly that high in this poll when compared to other Siena polls...it's around 5% undecideds in this one. Jorgensen is etting around 4% in this poll
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 12:28:16 PM »
Quote from: EJ24 on October 22, 2020, 12:05:32 PM
9% national lead for Biden confirmed.

Although I would love to see the demographic breakdown in this poll. Might have some pretty devastating results in there for Trump.

This seems like double digits confirmed. This is a 14% swing from 2016.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 12:28:58 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 04:10:28 PM by Landslide Lyndon »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 22, 2020, 12:06:17 PM
Damn, what happened with Bollier in the last month ?


The Republican primary ended and they started attacking her in earnest. Not to mention that she never broke mid-40s even when she led. Was that really some kind of mystery?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 12:33:41 PM »
That's why Ds shouldn't get too excited over Crt packing the majority isn't assured yet, the polls maybe inflated. D's aren't assured but 278
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 12:46:49 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 22, 2020, 12:07:10 PM
Undecideds lean young and non-white.

That's not surprising: Siena/NYT polls tend to have a higher number of undecided voters because they allocate a lot to the many who are undecided as to whether they'll actually show up and vote or not. Given the relatively low Latino turnout in KS, this doesn't necessarily mean they'll provide much of an advantage for Democrats if the most likely scenario is them turning out rates only slightly higher than their turnout in previous elections.
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Jay 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 12:49:29 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 22, 2020, 12:28:16 PM
Quote from: EJ24 on October 22, 2020, 12:05:32 PM
9% national lead for Biden confirmed.

Although I would love to see the demographic breakdown in this poll. Might have some pretty devastating results in there for Trump.

This seems like double digits confirmed. This is a 14% swing from 2016.

Still plausible that it's Biden +9 nationally if you think that the state will trend Dem (and I personally think it will. It's got a lot of highly educated suburban voters that traditionally voted Republican)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 12:51:36 PM »
Biden isn't winning this state, but

(1) it is going to be closer than at any time since the 1990's
(2) it won't be an instant call. 
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Crumpets
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2020, 12:55:30 PM »

Reported for insensitive joke about Bleeding Kansas. Tongue
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2020, 12:58:10 PM »
October 18-20
755 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Jorgensen 4%
Someone else 1%
Not voting for President 1%
Don't know/Refused 6%
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prag_prog
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2020, 01:00:23 PM »
Breakdown by age -

18-29
Biden: 57
Trump: 30

30-44
Biden: 46
Trump: 37

45-64
Biden: 33
Trump: 57

65+
Biden: 42
Trump: 53

Biden performing the best with 18-29 age group and performing the worst with 45-64 age group...pretty much inline with all other polls we have been seeing this year
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2020, 01:02:14 PM »
NYT/Siena are quite consistent (date ranges approximate):

10/18 - 10/20:
KS: Trump +7 (Trump 48%)
IA: Biden +3 (Biden 46%)

10/15 - 10/18
GA: Tied (Both 45%)
National: Biden +9 (Biden 50%)

10/9 - 10/14
SC: Trump +8 (Trump 49%)
AK: Trump +6 (Trump 45%)
NC: Biden +4 (Biden 46%)

10/6 - 10/11
MI: Biden +8 (Biden 48%)
WI: Biden +10 (Biden 51%)

10/1 - 10/6
NV: Biden +6 (Biden 48%)
OH: Biden +1 (Biden 45%)
AZ: Biden +8 (Biden 49%)

9/30 - 10/2
PA: Biden +7 (Biden 49%)
FL: Biden +5 (Biden 47%)

Trump SC = Biden AZ
Trump KS = Biden MI
Trump AK ~ Biden FL

This is a fantastic pollster. Even if Biden underperforms these margins by 5 points across the board (which would be a huge systemic error for a pollster this good), Biden still wins easily.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2020, 02:20:00 PM »
Quote from: prag_prog on October 22, 2020, 01:00:23 PM
Breakdown by age -

18-29
Biden: 57
Trump: 30

30-44
Biden: 46
Trump: 37

45-64
Biden: 33
Trump: 57

65+
Biden: 42
Trump: 53

Biden performing the best with 18-29 age group and performing the worst with 45-64 age group...pretty much inline with all other polls we have been seeing this year

The KSGOP's future does not look bright.
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