WI (RMG Research): Biden +6
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  WI (RMG Research): Biden +6
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Author Topic: WI (RMG Research): Biden +6  (Read 1311 times)
Buzz
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« on: October 22, 2020, 09:32:04 AM »

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Reapsow
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 09:33:59 AM »



D A I R Y L A N D   J O E
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2020, 09:34:14 AM »

Trump still seems to be having that issue getting over that 44-45% hump.  
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2020, 09:37:25 AM »

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/22/wi-biden-50-trump-44/

For PoliticalIQ
October 14-20
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Some other candidate 3%
Not sure 4%

Strong Democratic Turnout model:
Biden 52%
Trump 42%
Some other candidate 3%
Not sure 4%

Strong Republican Turnout model:
Biden 48%
Trump 45%
Some other candidate 3%
Not sure 4%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2020, 09:58:54 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 10:05:25 AM by Gass3268 »

Et tu Scotty!

Seriously though, this poll has Trump getting 40% of people of color. Walker only got 8% and Vukmir got 4%. So this could actually get worse for Trump.
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redjohn
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 10:21:55 AM »

I'm 99% sure Biden will win WI. Trump is crashing hard in the suburbs and rural areas aren't going to deliver Trump the same margins he got in 2016. Evers's 2018 win was narrow because he had 100,000 fewer net votes out of southeastern WI than Tammy Baldwin.

WI-05, which has long been a GOP stronghold, is swinging towards Biden and the GOP candidate there will win by a fall smaller margin than in 2018, which was in turn a smaller margin than 2016. Trump isn't going to be able to net enough votes out of northern Wisconsin to make up for the heavy losses in southern and western WI. Biden will win the state, probably handily.

Even if Trump gains tens of thousands of votes in northern, northeast, AND southeastern WI, it's not enough for him to win with Biden slightly rebounding from Clinton's 2016 performance, which he will.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 10:24:20 AM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 10:25:40 AM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

I'm going to need to see the last Marquette Poll before I make any predictions.
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 10:27:21 AM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

I'm going to need to see the last Marquette Poll before I make any predictions.

Hopefully it's Biden by at least 3.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 10:47:23 AM »

Trump is done, if he can't win WI🤩🤩🤩🤩
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 12:41:04 PM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.
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Hammy
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 03:22:30 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 03:33:17 PM by Hammy »

Have they polled Wisconsin in prior cycles? I like comparing data but am not finding any.
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Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 03:31:50 PM »

Reasonable.
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demoman1596
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 05:32:20 PM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.
You keep acting like you know what's going on in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other similar states.  What evidence can you present that these states are realigning so strongly?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 06:34:59 PM »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by RMG Research on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 50%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 06:44:31 PM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.
You keep acting like you know what's going on in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other similar states.  What evidence can you present that these states are realigning so strongly?

voted 2-3% to the right of the nation in 2016
Polling has consistent Biden +10 leads but consistent +4 to 6 in those states

why is this so complicated?
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Hammy
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 06:54:43 PM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.
You keep acting like you know what's going on in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other similar states.  What evidence can you present that these states are realigning so strongly?

voted 2-3% to the right of the nation in 2016
Polling has consistent Biden +10 leads but consistent +4 to 6 in those states

why is this so complicated?

You're acting like how far left or right will automatically remain consistent or automatically trend rightward in every election.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 07:20:04 PM »

In 2012, Wisconsin was D+1.5. In 2016, it was R+1.5. With WWC regressing to a new mean and moderate minorities canceling out moderate middle class people, I think Wisconsin will vote at the tipping point. What do you think of this?

(1) Trump is not getting 40% of nonwhites...he will do slightly better than Walker.
(2) yup correct Wisconsin is not only the tipping point state (TBF that's Minnesota) but will vote 3 to 4% to the right of the nation and

(3) potentially more. 50-47 Biden here even in a D wave and +9 Biden environment. The state is gone for the Democrats in less then 2 weeks.
You keep acting like you know what's going on in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other similar states.  What evidence can you present that these states are realigning so strongly?

voted 2-3% to the right of the nation in 2016
Polling has consistent Biden +10 leads but consistent +4 to 6 in those states

why is this so complicated?

You're acting like how far left or right will automatically remain consistent or automatically trend rightward in every election.

In the case of the midwest and sunbelt yes. It's very apparent what's going on in both regions.

I think after 2020 the Democrats will start to understand the shift...and that Scott Walker, Rick Snyder, Pat Toomey, etc were not "flukes".
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 07:26:14 PM »

Trump still seems to be having that issue getting over that 44-45% hump.  

He sort of had the same issue in the last election but luckily for him third party candidates were a lot more popular in that election.
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Hammy
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 07:40:05 PM »

Trump still seems to be having that issue getting over that 44-45% hump.  

He sort of had the same issue in the last election but luckily for him third party candidates were a lot more popular in that election.

That makes no sense given the reason the polls were wrong were not Hillary under-performing, but undecideds breaking for Trump. He ended up well above what his polling average was where Hillary was either even or slightly higher.
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