Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?
Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.
Probably people who don't know who Hegar is, but will end up voting for her because she's a Democrat.
It's 2020, not 1988. Partisanship is very strong and only getting stronger. Russ Feingold was up in the polls by a decent margin in fall 2016, but lost WI because Hillary lost. McGinty was ahead in PA in 2016 as well, but lost.