Morning Consult - a bunch of states
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September 22, 2021, 10:32:51 AM

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Morning Consult - a bunch of states
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Author Topic: Morning Consult - a bunch of states  (Read 2359 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 22, 2020, 06:08:53 AM »
« edited: October 22, 2020, 06:16:01 AM by wbrocks67 »

North Carolina
Biden 50
Trump 47

Michigan
Biden 52
Trump 44

Florida
Biden 52
Trump 45

Minnesota
Biden 51
Trump 42

Georgia
Biden 48
Trump 48

Colorado
Biden 55
Trump 39

Arizona
Trump 48
Biden 47

Ohio
Trump 49
Biden 47

Pennsylvania
Biden 52
Trump 43

South Carolina
Trump 51
Biden 45

Wisconsin
Biden 54
Trump 42

Texas
Biden 48
Trump 47

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1319217180471259136/photo/1
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VARep
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 06:09:45 AM »

MN:
Biden 51%
Tump 42%
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Horus
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2020, 06:10:22 AM »

That Florida number tho
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VARep
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2020, 06:11:38 AM »

Trump +1 in AZ lmao
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VARep
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2020, 06:11:51 AM »

JUNK IT!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 06:12:11 AM »


Yeah, clearly a R leaning sample since McSally has somehow narrowed the gap to 4 there (from Kelly +8 before and +11 before that)
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jdk
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 06:16:56 AM »

so slight gains across for Biden across the board except for NC and AZ (yikes on AZ though)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 06:17:30 AM »

so slight gains across for Biden across the board except for NC and AZ (yikes on AZ though)

Like I said above... probably just noise. Kelly fell 4% from their last poll too. Probably just an R leaning sample
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Reapsow
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 06:17:35 AM »

President Joe Biden
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 06:32:13 AM »


Yeah, even as they have Biden up in Texas
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 06:49:14 AM »

If Trump is ahead in AZ then he would be ahead in TX too and no way is Trump that far ahead in OH and Rassy put a poll out showing Biden ahead in OH
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Diogenes of Bethesda
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 06:54:39 AM »

AZ, FL, and WI are eyebrow raisers. Everything else looks about right.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 06:59:38 AM »

Do you think Biden will win TX before AZ and Kelly is ahead by 4 or NC. No he won't
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 07:04:44 AM »

Not liking the AZ numbers. Everything else looks pretty good.
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TheTide
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 07:44:36 AM »

We're now in the phase where pollsters release a load of polls from various states and one or two of them look distinctly out of place amongst the others.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 07:46:56 AM »

We're now in the phase where pollsters release a load of polls from various states and one or two of them look distinctly out of place amongst the others.

MoE

Republicans can't sleep on Texas though.
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Resist Anarchy!
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 08:04:50 AM »

Which genius nuked Phoenix?
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 08:20:53 AM »

TX going D and OH going R while Trump remains favored in NC and AZ isnt happening sorry Change


It's 278 AZ, NC, IA and OH andTX are the order of operations, since Ernst is more vulnerable than Cornyn
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Zache
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 08:23:08 AM »

Biden+1 in TX and down in AZ?
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Panda Express
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 08:26:46 AM »

Guys, if a pollster, even a high-quality one, polls a bunch of states at once, there's bound to be an outlier or two. It's basic statistics. In this batch, it happens to be Arizona that got an R-leaning sample (judging from Kelly's small lead). Frankly, if 100% of the states polled "made sense", it would be suspect
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2020, 08:28:53 AM »

I think that Joe Biden has a good chance to win all of these states except South Carolina (though he will probably hit Bill Clinton 1996 or even Jimmy Carter 1980 numbers in South Carolina if he is having a good election night). Texas and Ohio are probably the closest. In Texas, I can see both Donald Trump's and Joe Biden's floors and ceilings being 47% and 51% respectively and in Ohio, either candidate will probably win or lose the state with around 49% of the vote.
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2020, 08:38:14 AM »

On the senate front Harrison up 2 on Graham https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/22/senate-race-polling-north-carolina-texas-arizona-south-carolina/

Harrison: 47%
Graham: 45%
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2020, 08:47:11 AM »

outliers exist.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2020, 08:49:56 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 09:21:54 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

October 11-20
All samples of likely voters
MoE: 2-3% per state
Changes with October 2-11 (I've added them below):

North Carolina - 1904, MoE: 2.2%
Biden 50 (n/c)
Trump 47 (+1)

Michigan - 1717, MoE: 2.4%
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 44 (n/c)

Florida - 4685, MoE: 1.4%
Biden 52 (+1)
Trump 45 (-1)

Minnesota - 864, MoE: 3.3%
Biden 51 (+1)
Trump 42 (-2)

Georgia - 1672, MoE: 2.4%
Biden 48 (+1)
Trump 48 (-1)

Colorado - 788, MoE: 3.5%
Biden 55 (+1)
Trump 39 (-1)

Arizona - 1066, MoE: 3%
Trump 48 (+2)
Biden 47 (-2)

Ohio - 2271, MoE: 2.1%
Trump 49 (n/c)
Biden 47 (+1)

Pennsylvania - 2563, MoE: 1.9%
Biden 52 (n/c)
Trump 43 (-1)

South Carolina - 926, MoE: 3.2%
Trump 51 (-3)
Biden 45 (+3)

Wisconsin - 1038, MoE: 3%
Biden 54 (+3)
Trump 42 (-2)

Texas - 3347, MoE: 1.7%
Biden 48 (+1)
Trump 47 (-2)

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1319217180471259136/photo/1
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2020, 09:10:00 AM »

Guys, if a pollster, even a high-quality one, polls a bunch of states at once, there's bound to be an outlier or two. It's basic statistics. In this batch, it happens to be Arizona that got an R-leaning sample (judging from Kelly's small lead). Frankly, if 100% of the states polled "made sense", it would be suspect
Spot on. If every state looks just right, there's probably something fishy going on. A poll that seems "off" here and there is not the sign of a bad pollster, but of a pollster that is actually legit.

This is also why this nonsense about "which pollster got the election right" is nonsense and has zero predictive power as to who "gets it right" the next time.
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