Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.
Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.
I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.
Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?
Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?
Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.
Biden can be ahead by 8-9 and only up 4 or 5 in Michigan.
That's the most likely outcome. Its completely obvious those states have trended right.
I disagree it's the most likely outcome. I especially disagree it's "completely obvious" the states have trended right since 2016 at least, when they only voted a couple points right of the nation. ESPECIALLY Michigan, which incidentally Fox just released a poll showing Biden up 12 in.
*up 12 well Biden is up by 5 in MI/PA...if you think that's accurate lol
*Walker barley lost in 2018. Stabenow underperformed.
*Michigan voted...+6D in 2012 then +2R in 2016. it trended +5-6R should be obvious.
1. That's why you look at the averages rather than any one poll. But for what it's worth, the Fox poll is closer to the average than this one.
2. Walker was in Wisconsin, not Michigan. Stabenow still won by high single digits, Whitmer by double digits. It's not unreasonable to expect Biden could do the same.
3. Michigan clearly trended R from 2012 to 2016 but I am not at all convinced it's repeated that trend again since then.
