MI-DFP: Biden +5
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Author Topic: MI-DFP: Biden +5  (Read 1717 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 21, 2020, 04:46:56 PM »

Oct 15-18, 830 LV, MoE: 3.4%

Biden 50%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
Not sure 3%

SEN: 48-43 Peters

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-5/toplines/dfp_psp_mi_10.21.2020.pdf
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n1240
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 04:51:29 PM »

This is a weird presentation where the first question result is only for those who haven't voted yet, then the 2nd question is a survey of those who already voted, then the 3rd question is the topline.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 04:51:56 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 04:59:22 PM by Bootes Void »

Not great for Biden but he's at 50 with less than 2 weeks to go
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exopolitician
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 04:52:09 PM »

This is garbage, mama.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 04:58:21 PM »

It’s organization is very weird:
a. Still need to vote
b. Voted already
c. Leaners
d. a+b+c
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 05:05:16 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 05:06:46 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?

Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?

Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 05:07:38 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?

Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?

Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.

Biden can be ahead by 8-9 and only up 4 or 5 in Michigan.

That's the most likely outcome. Its completely obvious those states have trended right.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 05:08:55 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?

Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?

Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.

Biden can be ahead by 8-9 and only up 4 or 5 in Michigan.

That's the most likely outcome. Its completely obvious those states have trended right.

I disagree it's the most likely outcome. I especially disagree it's "completely obvious" the states have trended right since 2016 at least, when they only voted a couple points right of the nation. ESPECIALLY Michigan, which incidentally Fox just released a poll showing Biden up 12 in.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 05:09:58 PM »

D4P is usually good but this is way too R leaning here.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 05:12:13 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?

Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?

Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.

Biden can be ahead by 8-9 and only up 4 or 5 in Michigan.

That's the most likely outcome. Its completely obvious those states have trended right.

I disagree it's the most likely outcome. I especially disagree it's "completely obvious" the states have trended right since 2016 at least, when they only voted a couple points right of the nation. ESPECIALLY Michigan, which incidentally Fox just released a poll showing Biden up 12 in.

*up 12 well Biden is up by 5 in MI/PA...if you think that's accurate lol
*Walker barley lost in 2018. Stabenow underperformed.
*Michigan voted...+6D in 2012 then +2R in 2016. it trended +5-6R should be obvious.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 05:12:22 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 05:12:35 PM »

Throw it in the average, which is probably around Biden +8 or +9 by now
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2020, 05:13:07 PM »

But Indiana 2008...

Peters (and the DSCC) are really lucky he isn’t up in 2022.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2020, 05:15:02 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?

Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?

Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.

Biden can be ahead by 8-9 and only up 4 or 5 in Michigan.

That's the most likely outcome. Its completely obvious those states have trended right.

I disagree it's the most likely outcome. I especially disagree it's "completely obvious" the states have trended right since 2016 at least, when they only voted a couple points right of the nation. ESPECIALLY Michigan, which incidentally Fox just released a poll showing Biden up 12 in.

*up 12 well Biden is up by 5 in MI/PA...if you think that's accurate lol
*Walker barley lost in 2018. Stabenow underperformed.
*Michigan voted...+6D in 2012 then +2R in 2016. it trended +5-6R should be obvious.

1. That's why you look at the averages rather than any one poll. But for what it's worth, the Fox poll is closer to the average than this one.

2. Walker was in Wisconsin, not Michigan. Stabenow still won by high single digits, Whitmer by double digits. It's not unreasonable to expect Biden could do the same.

3. Michigan clearly trended R from 2012 to 2016 but I am not at all convinced it's repeated that trend again since then.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 05:15:31 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 05:16:57 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

I don’t think it’s unlikely Biden wins them by a little more than 5, but even if he does, they still look likely to trend right again.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2020, 05:17:43 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

You sure sound awfully confident for someone who doesn't know what he's talking about and is at odds with the experts. (FiveThirtyEight projects Biden +8 as the most likely outcome.)
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2020, 05:19:15 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

You sure sound awfully confident for someone who doesn't know what he's talking about and is at odds with the experts. (FiveThirtyEight projects Biden +8 as the most likely outcome.)

What was 2018 in Michigan VS Polling?

What was 2016?

Pretty consistently we've seen Ds overstated in Michigan.

Opposite in Texas and Arizona.

Why is this so hard for people here to believe? Democrats have gotten to liberal for Michigan (IMO) but the good news for them is in the sunbelt.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2020, 05:19:46 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

I don’t think it’s unlikely Biden wins them by a little more than 5, but even if he does, they still look likely to trend right again.

I think it will either trend left or about the same. There is no way in hell it's gonna be another 4 point right trend or something.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2020, 05:23:06 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

I don’t think it’s unlikely Biden wins them by a little more than 5, but even if he does, they still look likely to trend right again.

I think it will either trend left or about the same. There is no way in hell it's gonna be another 4 point right trend or something.

Why?

It's trended right every year since 2008 lol. And is only more demographically favorable to the GOP.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2020, 05:29:46 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because this board is more a social club for Democrats first, and political analysis second.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 05:31:55 PM »

Michigan will only vote for Biden by two points. I also expect Peters to lose.
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Hammy
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2020, 05:56:27 PM »

Michigan will only vote for Biden by two points. I also expect Peters to lose.


Let me guess... Because "muh 2016"?
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Badger
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2020, 05:57:15 PM »

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

You sure sound awfully confident for someone who doesn't know what he's talking about and is at odds with the experts. (FiveThirtyEight projects Biden +8 as the most likely outcome.)

What was 2018 in Michigan VS Polling?

What was 2016?

Pretty consistently we've seen Ds overstated in Michigan.


(Raises hand) Ooh! Pick me , teacher. I know this one.

Michigan averaged polls for governor and senator in 2018 nailed the margins at 10% and 6% respectively.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?fips=26&class=1

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?fips=26

Polls at the end of the 2016 campaign showed Trump only two points behind. He wound up winning the Lion's Share of undecided voters to eke out a less than quarter percent victory.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?fips=26

And in none of those polls averages were Democrats strength overstated. The worst that can be stated is the 2016 polls narrowly failed to detect the last-minute surge of undecided voters towards Trump , but that certainly had to do with the Dynamics of the last couple days of the campaign rather than any structural deficiencies in polling Michigan.

Did I do good?
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