Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.
Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.
I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.
Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...
Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).
You sure sound awfully confident for someone who doesn't know what he's talking about and is at odds with the experts. (FiveThirtyEight projects Biden +8 as the most likely outcome.)
What was 2018 in Michigan VS Polling?
What was 2016?
Pretty consistently we've seen Ds overstated in Michigan.
(Raises hand) Ooh! Pick me , teacher. I know this one.
Michigan averaged polls for governor and senator in 2018 nailed the margins at 10% and 6% respectively.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?fips=26&class=1
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?fips=26
Polls at the end of the 2016 campaign showed Trump only two points behind. He wound up winning the Lion's Share of undecided voters to eke out a less than quarter percent victory.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?fips=26
And in none of those polls averages were Democrats strength overstated. The worst that can be stated is the 2016 polls narrowly failed to detect the last-minute surge of undecided voters towards Trump , but that certainly had to do with the Dynamics of the last couple days of the campaign rather than any structural deficiencies in polling Michigan.
Did I do good?
RCP and 538 had James beating his #s by 2-3 points.
Even with Whitmer.
Walker was supposed to lose big (by 10%) almost won.
http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_WI%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_1810081509.pdf
I have Wisconsin voting about 5 or 6 to the right of the nation.
First, MI-GOV, Schuette overperformed by 4.3, Whitmer by 2.8. That means of the 10% undecideds, she got 28% vs 43%. A similar performance would result in D 52.7-R 46.1. (D+6.6)
Second, MI-SEN, James overperformed by 2.1 and Stabenow by 0.2. Again, splitting the undecideds would still result in D 50.8-R 46.6.
Both of these also result in a Senate win.
Third, literally the ONLY poll that ever had Evers +10 was NBC/Marist--and they are basically discredited by anybody with common sense. How convenient you use the polling average in MI but decide to cherry pick a single poll with the largest error for WI.
And fourth, even with that, the ten weeks prior to the election the average still resulted in Evers overperforming by 0.4 and Walker by 3. Again, even this error still results in D 49.7-R 48.0.
