MI-DFP: Biden +5

[TheLaRocca]

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

[TheLaRocca]

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?

Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?

Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.

Biden can be ahead by 8-9 and only up 4 or 5 in Michigan.

That's the most likely outcome. Its completely obvious those states have trended right.

[TheLaRocca]

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Because the average has him more than 5% ahead?

Because the national polls suggest he probably is winning them by more?

Honestly, I suspect (can't prove, but suspect) that the polls might have particularly overcompensated for 2016 in these states and therefore might be underestimating Biden if anything.

Biden can be ahead by 8-9 and only up 4 or 5 in Michigan.

That's the most likely outcome. Its completely obvious those states have trended right.

I disagree it's the most likely outcome. I especially disagree it's "completely obvious" the states have trended right since 2016 at least, when they only voted a couple points right of the nation. ESPECIALLY Michigan, which incidentally Fox just released a poll showing Biden up 12 in.

*up 12 well Biden is up by 5 in MI/PA...if you think that's accurate lol
*Walker barley lost in 2018. Stabenow underperformed.
*Michigan voted...+6D in 2012 then +2R in 2016. it trended +5-6R should be obvious.

[TheLaRocca]

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

[TheLaRocca]

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

You sure sound awfully confident for someone who doesn't know what he's talking about and is at odds with the experts. (FiveThirtyEight projects Biden +8 as the most likely outcome.)

What was 2018 in Michigan VS Polling?

What was 2016?

Pretty consistently we've seen Ds overstated in Michigan.

Opposite in Texas and Arizona.

Why is this so hard for people here to believe? Democrats have gotten to liberal for Michigan (IMO) but the good news for them is in the sunbelt.

[TheLaRocca]

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

I don’t think it’s unlikely Biden wins them by a little more than 5, but even if he does, they still look likely to trend right again.

I think it will either trend left or about the same. There is no way in hell it's gonna be another 4 point right trend or something.

Why?

It's trended right every year since 2008 lol. And is only more demographically favorable to the GOP.

[TheLaRocca]

Stop dismissing results you don't like as trash.

Biden is clearly ahead in MI/WI but not by more than 5%.

I have NO CLUE why this is shocking to people on here.

Biden only being up 5 is clearly an outlier...

Quote this if he wins Michigan by more than 5 (he won't).

You sure sound awfully confident for someone who doesn't know what he's talking about and is at odds with the experts. (FiveThirtyEight projects Biden +8 as the most likely outcome.)

What was 2018 in Michigan VS Polling?

What was 2016?

Pretty consistently we've seen Ds overstated in Michigan.

(Raises hand) Ooh! Pick me , teacher. I know this one.

Michigan averaged polls for governor and senator in 2018 nailed the margins at 10% and 6% respectively.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?fips=26&class=1

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?fips=26

Polls at the end of the 2016 campaign showed Trump only two points behind. He wound up winning the Lion's Share of undecided voters to eke out a less than quarter percent victory.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?fips=26

And in none of those polls averages were Democrats strength overstated. The worst that can be stated is the 2016 polls narrowly failed to detect the last-minute surge of undecided voters towards Trump , but that certainly had to do with the Dynamics of the last couple days of the campaign rather than any structural deficiencies in polling Michigan.

Did I do good?

RCP and 538 had James beating his #s by 2-3 points.

Even with Whitmer.

Walker was supposed to lose big (by 10%) almost won.

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_WI%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_1810081509.pdf

I have Wisconsin voting about 5 or 6 to the right of the nation.