CNN: Biden +4 in FL, +10 in PA

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/ArePundits/status/1319006207676469248

[WD]

lol They’re talking about this poll on CNN right now. The Chyron says: “No Clear leader in FL”

[redjohn]

Excellent for Biden. 53% in PA with 13 days to go means he's almost definitely going to win the state.

[Buzz]

Pennsylvania has been gone since May.

[KaiserDave]

Finally, some good f***ing Pennsylvania polls

[ProgressiveModerate]

PA is narrowing!

[VAR]

Trump roars back in Florida!

[bandg]

Among registered voters, it is Biden 50-45 in PA and 48-46 in FL.

There is more evidence that the huge disparity in early voting is starting to skew LV models in some polls. The NBC decision to only go by RV is starting to look like the better way to go this time around.

[Alben Barkley]

Once again, the higher quality polls have Biden with a clear lead in PA, high single to low double digits. Hopefully this will stop the freak out over the lower tier polls with him “only” up like 4 points at 49/50.

LOL, who am I kidding?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

My state isn't going to make the same mistake twice.

[Lief 🗽]

Tremendous numbers. And consistent with a very nice Biden victory in the low teens.

[Alben Barkley]

Among registered voters, it is Biden 50-45 in PA and 48-46 in FL.

There is more evidence that the huge disparity in early voting is starting to skew LV models in some polls. The NBC decision to only go by RV is starting to look like the better way to go this time around.

But if you’ve already voted, you’re not just a likely voter, you’re a DEFINITE voter. It would make no sense not to account for that.

[Bootes Void]

i dont think the RV models are skewed, i mean its possible that dems are more enthusiastic this time around and are voting

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/cnn-polls-pennsylvania-florida/index.html

[MT Treasurer]

Okay, for once even I’m admittedly getting flashbacks to 2016, when seemingly every FL poll showed Clinton ahead by 4 (or 3) points at this point in the race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida

(No, I do not think this election is even remotely comparable to 2016 or that Trump has a chance of winning, I just remember the barrage of FL - Clinton +4 polls as though it was yesterday. Time flies.)

[President Johnson]

Scranton Joe! Sushine Joe!

The consistency in non-junk polls is remarkable. Now Trump is not finished until it's said and done, but he needs miracle to pull this out. I hope we get a clear picture Joe Biden won Florida on election night, which would seal the deal and be Game over for the God Emperor.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Among registered voters, it is Biden 50-45 in PA and 48-46 in FL.

There is more evidence that the huge disparity in early voting is starting to skew LV models in some polls. The NBC decision to only go by RV is starting to look like the better way to go this time around.

But if you’ve already voted, you’re not just a likely voter, you’re a DEFINITE voter. It would make no sense not to account for that.

They say they voted. I mean FL LV/RV split is OK, but PA is a bit to much, I'd say. Still terrible #'s for Trump, though.

[woodley park]

The concern trolls have overturned the couch cushions in New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, and now Pennsylvania.. and they found jack diddley! So which state will they start looking at next? New Mexico?

[Person Man]

The concern trolls have overturned the couch cushions in New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, and now Pennsylvania.. and they found jack diddley! So which state will they start looking at next? New Mexico?

Trump is within single digits in a poll or two in Virginia and Colorado. Why not start there?

[Badger]

Okay, for once even I’m admittedly getting flashbacks to 2016, when seemingly every FL poll showed Clinton ahead by 4 (or 3) points at this point in the race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida

(No, I do not think this election is even remotely comparable to 2016 or that Trump has a chance of winning, I just remember the barrage of FL - Clinton +4 polls as though it was yesterday. Time flies.)

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=12

The big difference is that Clinton polled consistently only in the mid to High forties, which is exactly where she wound up. Trump woundup largely sweeping the undecideds in no small part due to a combination of the Comey announcement first and foremost, and secondarily conservative-leaning Independents willing to give him a chance as president before they could stomach president Hillary.

Fast forward to today. Biden is consistently polling at or just above 50% in FL. My estimation is that here, like in most states, if he breaks 49.0% he'll probably at least win a narrow plurality victory. So not only is Trump going to have to repeat sweeping the undecideds despite now being a known entity with a record that these undecided voters are already unsure about, plus with the apparent absence of a true, Comey press conference level scandal to seriously impact voters Minds outside the faithful, but further do something to materially reduce Biden's support from where it currently stands, which he failed to do even against Clinton. Repeat that last Clause to yourself for full impact.

Frankly, one could say this especially Nationwide, and for more than enough States for Biden to hit 2 70. There's only a handful of contested States like Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and - - - - Ohio where Biden is still consistently falling short enough of 49 to 50% that even Trump's theoretically sweeping the undecideds like he did 4 years ago could be enough to win those States. But even then he'd still resoundingly lose re-election.

Furthermore, at this point I think of trump and his supporters are aware of it, which is why they're praying for a massive scandal to intervene deus ex machina Style.

[Hammy]

Just a reminder, CNN over-polled Hillary in Pennsylvania. They are not, by any measure, a "quality pollster"

[Torrain]

The concern trolls have overturned the couch cushions in New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, and now Pennsylvania.. and they found jack diddley! So which state will they start looking at next? New Mexico?

I hear Trump is outspending Biden 10 to 1 in the DC area...

[Blair]

Am I right in saying that for a long time Atlas was convinced that PA was the most likely of the three lost rustbelt states to flip back & was by far easier than Michigan or Wisconin?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I still could see a scenario where Trump holds Florida, but it doesn't really matter if he still loses PA, MI, WIS, AZ, and potentially NC. I'm not quite sold on GA flipping yet

[DaleCooper]

Am I right in saying that for a long time Atlas was convinced that PA was the strongest of the three lost rustbelt states & was by far easier than Michigan or Wisconin?

I don't know about Michigan, but earlier this year it was still a common belief that Wisconsin would vote as much as seven points to the right of the nation.