Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump

[forsythvoter]

It's actually not that hard to find Trump'16 supporters that are voting Biden this time around in the Atlanta exurbs (they can interview me or several of my neighbors lol). It's true most Trump'16 voters still support Trump. The issue is that the 5-10% that don't can swing an election.

[forsythvoter]

Gwinnett is the most diverse  of the northern suburban counties. It is not the poorest unless you are only including Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee as a peer group. General vibe of Gwinnett is middle class suburbia with some upscale areas in Suwanee and Peachtree Corners and downscale areas closer to Stone Mountain and Norcross.

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs. 

Your point? It’s a suburban county.

[forsythvoter]

The D trends in metro ATL are too rapid to be explained by demographics alone. There are precincts in East Cobb, South Forsyth, North Fulton, North Dekalb and parts of Gwinnett for example where Kemp in 2018 received 20-30% less than Romney did in 2012. The minority population in those areas might have increased 5-7% in those areas in that same time frame so the remainder of the swing has to come from changing habits of white voters.

I am not as familiar with Southside Atlanta but my impression is that the D trend in areas like Henry, Douglas and Rockdale are more driven by increases in the minority population. Fayette might be an exception to this as it's population is slower growth and Democrats have also gained significant ground there in heavily white areas such as parts of Peachtree City.

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs.  

Biden is gonna win Cobb and ex-Milton too.

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places.  

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

[forsythvoter]

This is spot on. The reason Republicans are losing counties like Cobb especially and Gwinnett to a lesser extent is not just because of demographics. Their share of the white vote has been going down from the 75% range to closer to 60-65%.

Trump will win white Georgia suburbanites, but that’s not enough to win re-election. At the very least he needs to match his 2016 numbers, or at the very least, Kemp’s numbers.

[forsythvoter]

Agreed - if you look at the last two elections, Forsyth county has been the county with the the largest or second largest D trends in all of Georgia. I suspect this will be the case again this year.

This is spot on. The reason Republicans are losing counties like Cobb especially and Gwinnett to a lesser extent is not just because of demographics. Their share of the white vote has been going down from the 75% range to closer to 60-65%.

Trump will win white Georgia suburbanites, but that’s not enough to win re-election. At the very least he needs to match his 2016 numbers, or at the very least, Kemp’s numbers.

Which is why we should look at Forsyth. If Biden cracks 30% there, Trump is in deep trouble.

[forsythvoter]

I think the article was trying to make the case that there are still a lot of Trump supporters in the ATL suburbs, which is true (he will still win counties like Forsyth and Cherokee). However, what was lost in the article is that it is also true that Trump has lost support in the ATL suburbs since 2016 and these reduced margins are what's problematic for his campaign. The GOP can't afford to win a county like Forsyth by just 65-33, given the big D margins coming out of urban and inner suburban Atlanta.

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

[forsythvoter]

I think the article was trying to make the case that there are still a lot of Trump supporters in the ATL suburbs, which is true (he will still win counties like Forsyth and Cherokee). However, what was lost in the article is that it is also true that Trump has lost support in the ATL suburbs since 2016 and these reduced margins are what's problematic for his campaign. The GOP can't afford to win a county like Forsyth by just 65-33, given the big D margins coming out of urban and inner suburban Atlanta.

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

Trump ended up winning Forsyth by 65.8 - 32.6, and it had the third largest swing in GA to the Dems, behind Henry and Rockdale counties.

More to the point, the NYT article was just really poorly written and clearly the writer didn't take the time to really understand what was going on in the Atlanta suburbs.

[forsythvoter]

I think the article was trying to make the case that there are still a lot of Trump supporters in the ATL suburbs, which is true (he will still win counties like Forsyth and Cherokee). However, what was lost in the article is that it is also true that Trump has lost support in the ATL suburbs since 2016 and these reduced margins are what's problematic for his campaign. The GOP can't afford to win a county like Forsyth by just 65-33, given the big D margins coming out of urban and inner suburban Atlanta.

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

Trump ended up winning Forsyth by 65.8 - 32.6, and it had the third largest swing in GA to the Dems, behind Henry and Rockdale counties.

More to the point, the NYT article was just really poorly written and clearly the writer didn't take the time to really understand what was going on in the Atlanta suburbs.

A bit of an oversimplification but Atlanta suburbs can be divided into three levels:

1.  Inner suburbs: These have been strongly Democrat for a long time.  Many are majority African-American so goal here was more to increase turnout not swings as barely any here.  DeKalb and Clayton counties examples of this.

2.  Mid level suburbs:  Many of these were semi-rural and fairly white in 2000 thus solidly GOP under Bush, started to drift under Obama but still went GOP for most part.  Clinton flipped these in 2016 while Biden won by double digits.  These are fast growing, lots of college educated whites, but also growing African-American population as well as large Hispanic and Asian population too.  Cobb and Gwinnett counties examples of this.

3.  Far flung suburbs: Still quite white, low population density and more exurban in some ways.  Trump did indeed win here, but these were a decade ago like rest of Northern Georgia where GOP tended to get close to 80%.  Now its about a 2/3 to 1/3 R vs. D split so still solidly GOP, but margins much less than a decade ago.  Forsyth and Cherokee counties examples of this.

This is generally correct, but there are a lot of nuances in the political geography, especially in Fulton, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties.

Cobb and Gwinnett have a mix of urban, mid level suburbs and outer suburbs. For example, most people generally think of Cobb as consisting of three parts:

1) East Cobb (basically the Cobb portion of GA-6) - this is the probably the stereotypical Cobb that most people think of when they think Cobb County. This area is 75-85% white with a sizeable Asian minority in parts and is highly affluent (MHI is probably around 120-150K based on census tract estimates). This area also has one of the highest concentration of college degree holders in the entire state of Georgia. This area, along with neighboring North Fulton is ground zero for the decline in support among college-educated whites for Republicans. Traditionally very Republican (70-80% R before Trump and R even during Carter), East Cobb was basically 50-50 this election, with Democrats winning several precincts in the area probably for the first time in history.

2. South Cobb is the lower half of the county and is the most Democratic part of Cobb. It's quite a diverse part of the county - would estimate the overall population to be around 30-40% white, 30% black, 10-15 Hispanic, 5% Asian. This area is above average in terms of college degree holder and a lot of millennials are moving here as they start families given it's easy access to in-town Atlanta. Many of its neighborhoods (Smyrna and Mableton in particular come to mind) are emblematic of the "New South" that many news articles often quote. Even during the Bush era, this part of the county probably leaned Democratic, and in this election, Biden was winning 70-80% of the vote in many precincts in this area.

3. West Cobb is the remaining part of Cobb and covers basically the parts north of Dallas Highway and West of I-75. This area is probably 65-70% white, with a sizeable black minority. The area is above average in income and education attainment, but not nearly to the extent of East Cobb and in many parts still retains an exurban feel. Parts of the Northwest portion of this area even still have horse ranches! Politically, this area remains the Republican stronghold within Cobb although it too has trended Democratic in the Trump era. This part of Cobb is almost certainly the most conservative - the Tea Party movement was quite strong and visible in this region. Trump received around 60% of the vote here and topped 65% in precincts closer to the Cherokee / Paulding county line. While this sounds like a strong performance, pre-Trump this area was routinely 75-80%+ Republican.

When I have some time, I'll try to write-up Fulton and Gwinnett as well, but they have similarly large variations.

[forsythvoter]

East Cobb wasn't that blue as far as I saw, looks like Biden picked up 1 precinct there but its only around a few points for Trump.

Most of Biden's precincts are closer to I-75. If you define East Cobb as anything east of I-75, my calculations actually show Biden narrowly winning east Cobb. If you define it as any precinct that's in GA-6, Trump wins it by 49.3-48.8%.